** WTSR20 WSSS 160600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 161429 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 IRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A CLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEM THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF IRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED JETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. ICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE LOOKS QUITE HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR...GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.7N 62.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 161430 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z TUE AUG 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 62.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 62.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 63.0W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 225SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 325SE 200SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 161431 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI AUG 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.3N 58.8W 30 3 X 1 34 BURGEO NFLD X X 2 1 3 41.0N 54.5W X 17 8 X 25 ILE ST PIERRE X X 5 2 7 46.0N 48.0W X X 11 5 16 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 10 3 13 SABLE ISLAND NS X 2 2 X 4 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 9 7 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 161431 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUES EASTWARD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST OR ABOUT 840 MILES...1350 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...36.7 N... 62.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 161433 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z TUE AUG 16 2005 ...CORRECTED 16/1200Z SYNOPTIC POSITION... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 62.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 62.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 225SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 325SE 200SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 161441 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE OLD TEXT... IRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A CLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE LOOKS QUITE HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR... GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST... LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER EXTRACURRICULAR TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.7N 62.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 161541 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z TUE AUG 16 2005 ...CORRECTED ABSORBED POSITION... HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 62.4W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 62.4W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 62.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 225SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 325SE 200SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 62.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 161629 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 ...CORRECTED TO REPLACE WORD EXTRACURRICULAR WITH EXTRATROPICAL... IRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES. SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A CLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE LOOKS QUITE HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR... GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST... LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR SOUTHERN GREENLAND. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9. THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 36.7N 62.4W 75 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 37.2N 60.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 38.3N 58.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/1200Z 46.0N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 161704 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.08.2005 HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N 62.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2005 36.4N 62.9W MODERATE 00UTC 17.08.2005 37.1N 61.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 37.9N 59.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161704