** WTIN20 DEMS 160715 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 16-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL, AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT44 KNHC 160831 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SEVERAL SSSMI...AMSU...AND TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DEGRADATION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE FEATURES AND EYE STRUCTURE. A DISTINCT EASTWARD TILT OF THE EYE WAS NOTED IN 0447Z AND 0625Z TRMM OVERPASSES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER IMAGE SUGGESTED THAT LESS TILTING OF THE EYE WAS OCCURRING AS COMPARED TO EARLIER PASSES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF IRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED JETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 36.7N 63.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 36.9N 62.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 37.8N 60.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 39.8N 56.7W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/0600Z 44.6N 50.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/0600Z 53.6N 37.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0600Z 59.0N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 160832 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z TUE AUG 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 63.5W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 63.5W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 64.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 36.9N 62.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.8N 60.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.8N 56.7W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.6N 50.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 225SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 53.6N 37.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 325SE 200SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 59.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 63.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 160831 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005 WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SEVERAL SSSMI...AMSU...AND TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL DEGRADATION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE FEATURES AND EYE STRUCTURE. A DISTINCT EASTWARD TILT OF THE EYE WAS NOTED IN 0447Z AND 0625Z TRMM OVERPASSES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER IMAGE SUGGESTED THAT LESS TILTING OF THE EYE WAS OCCURRING AS COMPARED TO EARLIER PASSES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 75 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF IRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED JETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 36.7N 63.5W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 36.9N 62.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 37.8N 60.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 39.8N 56.7W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/0600Z 44.6N 50.1W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/0600Z 53.6N 37.8W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0600Z 59.0N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 160837 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 ...IRENE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES...1405 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...36.7 N... 63.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 160838 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI AUG 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.8N 60.1W 26 3 1 X 30 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 2 2 39.8N 56.7W 3 17 9 X 29 BURGEO NFLD X X 1 3 4 44.6N 50.1W X X 13 6 19 ILE ST PIERRE X X 2 5 7 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 3 1 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 5 8 13 SYDNEY NS X X 1 1 2 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 4 12 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$