** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 160230 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOSTLY INDISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...AND AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 23Z SHOWED THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 80 KT. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS IRENE IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. BASED LARGELY ON THAT SSMI OVERPASS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 085/12...FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND FASTER THAN PREDICTED BY THE 18Z GUIDANCE MODELS. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT ACCELERATION TREND...I WILL ONLY SLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A LITTLE BIT AND THE NEW FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. SHOULD IRENE TAKE A PATH FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IT COULD MOVE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN FORECAST. IRENE STILL HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEFORE THEN. THIS SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND INDEED THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN. WEAKENING WOULD LIKELY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST SHOULD IRENE TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK. COOLER WATERS AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 36.6N 64.4W 80 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 37.1N 62.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 38.2N 59.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 40.4N 56.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 43.5N 51.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/0000Z 52.0N 40.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 20/0000Z 58.0N 32.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 160230 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z TUE AUG 16 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 64.4W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 64.4W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.6N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 37.1N 62.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 38.2N 59.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 40.4N 56.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 150SE 100SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 51.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...125NE 225SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 52.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 325SE 200SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 58.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.6N 64.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 160231 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON AUG 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU AUG 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.2N 59.8W 31 2 X X 33 EDDY POINT NS X X 2 1 3 40.4N 56.3W 1 18 4 X 23 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 1 3 4 43.5N 51.5W X 1 13 3 17 BURGEO NFLD X X 2 4 6 HALIFAX NS X X 1 1 2 ILE ST PIERRE X X 5 5 10 SABLE ISLAND NS X 4 6 1 11 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 7 6 13 SYDNEY NS X X 3 1 4 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 3 11 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 160233 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON AUG 15 2005 ...IRENE MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT TURNS EASTWARD... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES...1460 KM... SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A RETURN TO A EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...36.6 N... 64.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 980 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 160233 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z TUE AUG 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 135.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 135.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 134.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 135.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 160234 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FERNANDA REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 18 HOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AND FERNANDA IS CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. NOW THAT FERNANDA IS SHALLOW...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS ENSUED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/10. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMS MODEL. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 135.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 134.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 134.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.8N 138.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.6N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 RRB *** DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 134.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 134.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.8N 138.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.6N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 10 FEET.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 160400 RRA *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 134.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 134.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.0N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.8N 138.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.6N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT ** WTNT80 EGRR 160520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 116.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2005 13.7N 116.8W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2005 13.2N 117.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 12.3N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 134.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.1N 134.3W MODERATE 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.5N 136.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 16.2N 138.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 16.0N 141.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 16.2N 144.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.5N 65.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2005 36.5N 65.4W MODERATE 12UTC 16.08.2005 36.9N 63.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 37.2N 62.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160520