** WTNT44 KNHC 152027 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 AN EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY NEAR 80 KT. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST. IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DUCKING THE BELT OF WESTERLIES AND MUCH STRONGER SHEAR THAT LIES TO ITS NORTH. THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST FIELDS...PREDICTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12 HOURS OR SO. WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGEST THAT IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS COULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SOON AS 48-72 HOURS FROM NOW. AS NOTED ABOVE...IRENE'S TRACK HAS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NOW 070/10. THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED YET...BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...DUE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION...THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WIND RADII FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON INPUT FROM OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 36.7N 66.0W 80 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 37.3N 64.0W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 38.4N 61.5W 70 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/1800Z 50.5N 43.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 152028 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z MON AUG 15 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 66.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 66.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 66.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 37.3N 64.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 38.4N 61.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 200SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 50.5N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...100NE 200SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 420SE 240SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 58.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.7N 66.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 152028 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON AUG 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU AUG 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.4N 61.5W 29 2 X X 31 EDDY POINT NS X 1 3 3 7 40.0N 58.5W 2 18 4 1 25 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 2 4 6 43.0N 54.0W X 1 13 3 17 BURGEO NFLD X X 3 6 9 HALIFAX NS X 1 1 1 3 ILE ST PIERRE X X 6 6 12 SABLE ISLAND NS X 5 9 X 14 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 5 9 14 SYDNEY NS X X 4 3 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 11 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 152032 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 A 1342 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED ONLY 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE RAIN-FREE AREAS OF THE CIRCULATION OF GREG. IN ADDITION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SPARSE AND STILL UNDERGOING STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...ALL SIGNS THAT GREG IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GREG UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. GREG WILL BE CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 48 HOURS IN THE FORECAST. THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 245/4. GREG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF GREG CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH OF THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 13.8N 116.7W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 16/0600Z 13.6N 117.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/1800Z 13.1N 118.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 17/0600Z 12.7N 119.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 152034 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FERNANDA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT AND FERNANDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VERY DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT... WITH DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS...DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR SOONER. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 255/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THE UKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 17.0N 134.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 135.4W 25 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 17/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 152035 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 2100Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 134.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 134.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 133.7W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.8N 135.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 134.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 152036 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 2100Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 116.7W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 116.7W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.6N 117.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.1N 118.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.7N 119.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 116.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/151535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 026 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 133.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 133.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.8N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.3N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 RRB *** --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/151535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 026 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 133.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 133.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.8N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.3N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN32 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/151530AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 019 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 116.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 116.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 13.6N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 13.1N 118.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 12.7N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.3N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NAVAL PACIFIC ME TEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 152200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/151535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 026 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 133.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 133.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.8N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.5N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.3N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160400Z, 161000Z, 161600Z AND 162200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//