** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT44 KNHC 151430 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 IRENE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ALTHOUGH NO EYE WAS EVIDENT ON THE GEOSYNCHRONOUS IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT MAY APPEAR SOON. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 75 KNOTS...AND THAT IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS RATHER CLOSE TO A BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES...JUST TO ITS NORTH...AND SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SHEAR. HOWEVER IRENE HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT MORE EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY DELAY SLIGHTLY THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. HENCE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...IRENE SHOULD HAVE PASSED THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 96 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 48-72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. IRENE WILL SOON BE ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SHOULD IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS BE MAINTAINED AS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THEY WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 36.5N 67.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 37.4N 65.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 38.5N 62.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 56.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/1200Z 49.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1200Z 57.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 151430 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 ...IRENE HEADED NORTHEASTWARD...THREAT ONLY TO SHIPPING... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...36.5 N... 67.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 151430 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z MON AUG 15 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 67.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 67.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 56.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 57.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 151430 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.5N 62.5W 28 1 X X 29 EDDY POINT NS X 1 4 1 6 40.0N 59.5W 2 14 2 X 18 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 2 4 6 42.0N 56.0W X 3 9 2 14 BURGEO NFLD X X 3 5 8 HALIFAX NS X 2 2 1 5 ILE ST PIERRE X X 5 5 10 SABLE ISLAND NS X 5 6 1 12 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 3 8 11 SYDNEY NS X 1 4 2 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 9 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 151440 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE FURTHER DISSIPATION OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA. A 0236 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 45 KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WHEN THE SYSTEM HAD MORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED SPINDOWN...WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/6. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM REMAIN OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 17.2N 132.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 16.8N 133.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 137.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.8N 138.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W 25 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W 25 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 151441 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 1500Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 132.9W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 132.9W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 132.6W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.8N 133.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.8N 138.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER COBB/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 151447 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION ABOUT 40-45 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT...AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO RELAX...NO INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED...DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND OPTIMISTIC SHIPS FORECASTS. THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS OSCILLATED BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A MEAN INITIAL MOTION OF 245/4. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 72 HOURS WITH THE NOGAPS/UKMET AND THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU DYNAMICAL CONCENSUS FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION. THEREFORE THAT MODEL'S TRACK...WHICH MOVES GREG IN A CLOCKWISE LOOP...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND INDICATES A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.0N 116.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 13.7N 117.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.4N 117.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 12.7N 120.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 12.5N 122.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 12.5N 124.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 12.5N 126.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 151448 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 1500Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 116.4W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 116.4W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 13.7N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.4N 117.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.7N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 12.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 12.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 12.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 116.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 151430 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 IRENE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ALTHOUGH NO EYE WAS EVIDENT ON THE GEOSYNCHRONOUS IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT MAY APPEAR SOON. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 75 KNOTS...AND THAT IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS RATHER CLOSE TO A BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES...JUST TO ITS NORTH...AND SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SHEAR. HOWEVER IRENE HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT MORE EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY DELAY SLIGHTLY THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. HENCE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...IRENE SHOULD HAVE PASSED THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 96 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 48-72 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. IRENE WILL SOON BE ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SHOULD IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS BE MAINTAINED AS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THEY WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 36.5N 67.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 37.4N 65.3W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 38.5N 62.5W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 56.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 18/1200Z 49.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/1200Z 57.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 151430 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 ...IRENE HEADED NORTHEASTWARD...THREAT ONLY TO SHIPPING... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST OR ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...36.5 N... 67.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 151430 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z MON AUG 15 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 67.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 67.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 67.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.4N 65.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.5N 62.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 56.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 49.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 57.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 67.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 151430 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 44 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.5N 62.5W 28 1 X X 29 EDDY POINT NS X 1 4 1 6 40.0N 59.5W 2 14 2 X 18 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 2 4 6 42.0N 56.0W X 3 9 2 14 BURGEO NFLD X X 3 5 8 HALIFAX NS X 2 2 1 5 ILE ST PIERRE X X 5 5 10 SABLE ISLAND NS X 5 6 1 12 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 3 8 11 SYDNEY NS X 1 4 2 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 9 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/151535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 132.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 132.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.8N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.8N 138.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.5N 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/151530AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 116.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 116.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.7N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.4N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 13.1N 118.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 12.7N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 12.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 12.5N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 12.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 RRB *** VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.5N 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/151535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 132.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 132.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.8N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.8N 138.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5N 146.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.5N 150.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152200Z, 160400Z, 161000Z AND 161600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 151600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/151535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 132.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 132.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.8N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4N 135.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1N 137.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.8N 138.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT ** WTNT80 EGRR 151710 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 132.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.2N 132.3W MODERATE 00UTC 16.08.2005 16.5N 134.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.5N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 16.5N 138.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 16.5N 141.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 16.5N 143.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 16.5N 146.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2005 15.6N 148.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 15.6N 151.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 115.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2005 14.0N 115.9W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2005 13.9N 116.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 13.6N 118.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 12.8N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 11.9N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 11.4N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 10.5N 121.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2005 12.8N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 14.0N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 15.2N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 16.1N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 15.7N 121.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 15.5N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.2N 67.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2005 36.2N 67.9W MODERATE 00UTC 16.08.2005 36.3N 65.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 36.2N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 36.3N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 39.2N 59.9W WEAK BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL 00UTC 18.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 49.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2005 14.6N 49.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.08.2005 15.3N 51.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 15.7N 53.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 17.0N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 18.0N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 19.5N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 21.2N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 22.8N 62.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2005 24.0N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 25.2N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 25.5N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 26.1N 69.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.08.2005 26.3N 71.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+72 : 11.3N 94.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.08.2005 11.3N 94.2W WEAK 00UTC 19.08.2005 10.4N 95.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2005 10.4N 95.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2005 11.3N 97.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2005 12.2N 100.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 13.0N 103.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.08.2005 14.7N 105.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151710