** WTIN20 DEMS 150635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 15-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST BAY OF BENGAL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST, EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 150635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 15-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST BAY OF BENGAL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST, EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTIN20 DEMS 150635 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 15-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER WEST BAY OF BENGAL PARTS OF SOUTHEAST, EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150831 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 150834 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 150838 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 68.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 68.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.1N 63.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.3N 60.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 41.3N 57.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 47.5N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 56.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 150839 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.1N 63.8W 28 2 X X 30 SYDNEY NS X X 4 5 9 39.3N 60.7W 2 18 2 X 22 EDDY POINT NS X X 5 4 9 41.3N 57.3W X 2 13 2 17 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 1 6 7 ST JOHN NB X X 1 1 2 BURGEO NFLD X X 1 8 9 MONCTON NB X X 1 1 2 ILE ST PIERRE X X 2 9 11 YARMOUTH NS X 1 2 X 3 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 10 11 HALIFAX NS X 1 4 2 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 8 8 SABLE ISLAND NS X 2 10 2 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 150834 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 150844 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 ...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES... 660 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 330 MILES... 530 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...36.1 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 150838 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 68.3W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 68.3W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 68.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.1N 63.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.3N 60.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 41.3N 57.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 47.5N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 56.0N 39.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 150839 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU AUG 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.1N 63.8W 28 2 X X 30 SYDNEY NS X X 4 5 9 39.3N 60.7W 2 18 2 X 22 EDDY POINT NS X X 5 4 9 41.3N 57.3W X 2 13 2 17 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 1 6 7 ST JOHN NB X X 1 1 2 BURGEO NFLD X X 1 8 9 MONCTON NB X X 1 1 2 ILE ST PIERRE X X 2 9 11 YARMOUTH NS X 1 2 X 3 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 10 11 HALIFAX NS X 1 4 2 7 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 8 8 SABLE ISLAND NS X 2 10 2 14 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 150850 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 IRENE REMAINS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT OCCUPIES MOST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AND THE HURRICANE IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS ENVIRONMENT BY SUSTAINING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB... AND A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT ESTIMATE ALSO YIELDS 77 KT. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS AGO... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED... ASIDE FROM SOME RESTRICTION TO THE NORTHWEST SINCE THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THESE WESTERLIES WILL SOON BE IMPARTING SHEAR ON THE HURRICANE... SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS... AND THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL... THEN FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WEAKENING TREND... EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL INSISTS ON FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 90 KT BEFORE IRENE REACHES COOLER WATERS. IRENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/10. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FLATTEN OUT AS IRENE MOVES TO ITS NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD TURN IRENE MORE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IRENE WOULD PASS OVER THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 36.1N 68.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 66.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 38.1N 63.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 39.3N 60.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 41.3N 57.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 47.5N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0600Z 56.0N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150851 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 ...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 150834 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 150844 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 ...IRENE A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES... 660 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 330 MILES... 530 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...36.1 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 150900 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY... AND A 0226Z SSMI OVERPASS... CONTINUE TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE NEAREST CONVECTION... WHICH IS EXTREMELY LIMITED... IS ABOUT 50 N MI TO THE WEST... SO EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT... AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. PERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE IT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION TO ITS WEST... THE CENTER OF GREG APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION... ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP... LITERALLY... BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION... APPARENTLY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH NARROW LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WHICH IS NOT AS FAST OR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE MODELS. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION... AND SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... NO INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED... DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL FORECAST. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEPRESSION MIGHT NOT EVEN SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.4N 115.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150901 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 15/0526Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT THAT THE EARLIER NOTED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN THE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET IS AN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS DEEP LAYER BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT BEYOND DAY 3...WHICH NOW SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS SHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 17.5N 132.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 150850 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005 IRENE REMAINS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT OCCUPIES MOST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AND THE HURRICANE IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THIS ENVIRONMENT BY SUSTAINING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB... AND A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT ESTIMATE ALSO YIELDS 77 KT. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS AGO... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED... ASIDE FROM SOME RESTRICTION TO THE NORTHWEST SINCE THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THESE WESTERLIES WILL SOON BE IMPARTING SHEAR ON THE HURRICANE... SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS... AND THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL... THEN FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WEAKENING TREND... EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL INSISTS ON FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 90 KT BEFORE IRENE REACHES COOLER WATERS. IRENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/10. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FLATTEN OUT AS IRENE MOVES TO ITS NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD TURN IRENE MORE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS THE FAST OUTLIER... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IRENE WOULD PASS OVER THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 36.1N 68.3W 75 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 37.0N 66.5W 80 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 38.1N 63.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 39.3N 60.7W 65 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 41.3N 57.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 47.5N 48.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0600Z 56.0N 39.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150851 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 ...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 150834 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.9W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/150930AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 115.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 115.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.4N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.2N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 117.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 13.7N 118.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.5N 121.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 13.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 13.5N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ42 KNHC 150900 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY... AND A 0226Z SSMI OVERPASS... CONTINUE TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE NEAREST CONVECTION... WHICH IS EXTREMELY LIMITED... IS ABOUT 50 N MI TO THE WEST... SO EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT... AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. PERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE IT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION TO ITS WEST... THE CENTER OF GREG APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION... ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP... LITERALLY... BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION... APPARENTLY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH NARROW LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WHICH IS NOT AS FAST OR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE MODELS. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION... AND SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... NO INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED... DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL FORECAST. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEPRESSION MIGHT NOT EVEN SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.4N 115.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150851 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 ...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/150935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 131.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 131.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.6N 134.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.3N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ42 KNHC 150900 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005 GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY... AND A 0226Z SSMI OVERPASS... CONTINUE TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE NEAREST CONVECTION... WHICH IS EXTREMELY LIMITED... IS ABOUT 50 N MI TO THE WEST... SO EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT... AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. PERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE IT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION TO ITS WEST... THE CENTER OF GREG APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION... ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP... LITERALLY... BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION... APPARENTLY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH NARROW LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WHICH IS NOT AS FAST OR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE MODELS. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION... AND SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... NO INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED... DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL FORECAST. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEPRESSION MIGHT NOT EVEN SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 14.4N 115.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 RRC *** 200600Z --- 14.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.6N 134.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.3N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/150935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 131.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 131.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/150935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 131.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 131.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.6N 134.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.3N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150851 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24... CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z MON AUG 15 2005 ...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 132.1W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 131.8W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 132.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 151000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/150935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 024 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 17.6N 131.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 131.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.0N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.6N 134.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.3N 135.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0N 137.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2N 141.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.5N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 14.0N 148.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151600Z, 152200Z, 160400Z AND 161000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 18.0N 122.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 118.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 23.0N 115.4E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 24.8N 114.0E 990HPA 20M/S=