** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 150000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 150000 UTC 00HR 29.2N 111.8E 999HPA 14M/S= P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT44 KNHC 150230 *** TCDAT4 HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ON A TEST FLIGHT MEASURED STRONG ENOUGH WINDS AT 850 MB TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING IRENE TO A HURRICANE. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 88 KT...WHICH IN FACT CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 70 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND THAT IS THE ASSIGNED ADVISORY INTENSITY. IRENE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES ARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IRENE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...AND SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER THAT TIME AS WELL. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10. IRENE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BE DEFLECTED TO THE RIGHT BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL HOWEVER...AND IF IRENE TURNS SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR ANY RAPID ACCELERATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A MODEST ACCELERATION UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE SPEED OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT NEARLY THAT FAST...BUT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IRENE BECOMES THE SEASON'S THIRD HURRICANE. THE NORMAL NUMBER OF HURRICANES FORMED BY THIS DATE IS ONE. ONLY ONE YEAR...1966... HAD MORE HURRICANES FORMED BY THIS POINT IN THE SEASON. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 35.3N 69.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 36.4N 67.8W 75 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 37.6N 65.1W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 38.8N 62.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 45.0N 51.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 19/0000Z 54.0N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 20/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 150231 *** TCMAT4 HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z MON AUG 15 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.2W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.2W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 69.5W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.4N 67.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.6N 65.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 38.8N 62.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.0N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 54.0N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 150231 *** SPFAT4 HURRICANE IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED AUG 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.6N 65.1W 31 X X X 31 YARMOUTH NS X 1 3 2 6 38.8N 62.2W 4 14 2 X 20 HALIFAX NS X 1 4 3 8 40.0N 59.0W X 5 8 3 16 SABLE ISLAND NS X 1 6 5 12 BERMUDA X 2 1 X 3 SYDNEY NS X X 2 6 8 NANTUCKET MA X 1 1 X 2 EDDY POINT NS X X 3 5 8 HYANNIS MA X 1 X 1 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 1 5 6 BAR HARBOR ME X X 1 1 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 7 7 EASTPORT ME X X 1 2 3 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 8 9 ST JOHN NB X X 2 1 3 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 8 8 MONCTON NB X X 1 3 4 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 150231 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 ...IRENE BECOMES THE SEASON'S THIRD HURRICANE... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 355 MILES... 570 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM...NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...35.3 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 150232 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO BE RESILIENT WITH A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS ALSO A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THE DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AND HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS INDICATES THE WEAKENING TREND MAY RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE TOMORROW. ADDITIONALLY...A RECENT SSMI PASS INDICATED DRY AIR BEGINNING TO ENTRAIN INTO FERNANDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...IMPLYING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPART SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM THROUGH THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE PATTEN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/08. THIS OVERALL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A DEEP STRUCTURE...KEEPING IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THEREAFTER...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.8N 131.4W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.9N 133.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.1N 136.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.7N 140.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 150233 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 131.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 131.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 131.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.9N 133.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.4N 135.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.1N 136.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.7N 140.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 131.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 150235 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 GREG REMAINS COMPLETELY SHEARED ABOUT 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FROM A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IS STREAMING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE... AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 200 MB EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO INCREASE OVER GREG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS FORECAST...THIS WOULD REPRESENT MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO KILL GREG OFF. HOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT REINTENSIFICATION...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW DISSIPATION AT THIS TIME. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH MEANDERS GREG FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE PULLING IT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE BACK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST. THE WESTWARD OPTION MAKES SENSE IF GREG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS NO NET MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSUMES THAT GREG WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND QUALITATIVELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SCENARIO. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GREG WILL IN FACT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR LONGER THAN A DAY OR SO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.4N 115.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 150235 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0300Z MON AUG 15 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.4W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.4W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 115.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 150242 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN HURACAN IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 42 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE CONVIERTE EN EL TERCER HURACAN DE LA TEMPORADA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 35.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.2 OESTE O COMO A 355 MILLAS... 570 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 325 MILLAS... 525 KILOMETROS... AL NOROESTE DE BERMUDA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 80 MPH... 130 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 30 MILLAS...45 KILOMETROS...FUERA DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 989 MB...29.21 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...35.3 NORTE... 69.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 80 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 989 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 131.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 131.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.3N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.9N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.7N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 115.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 000 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 115.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 RRC *** 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 131.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 131.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.3N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.9N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.7N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 150400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 17.9N 131.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 131.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.3N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 16.9N 133.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.4N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.1N 136.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.7N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.5N 143.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151000Z, 151600Z, 152200Z AND 160400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 150504 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.0N 130.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2005 18.0N 130.9W MODERATE 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.7N 132.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.2N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 17.6N 136.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 17.7N 139.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 17.7N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 17.3N 144.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 17.1N 147.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 115.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2005 13.9N 115.8W WEAK 12UTC 15.08.2005 13.9N 115.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 13.9N 116.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 13.6N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 12.9N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 12.2N 120.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 11.4N 121.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 10.9N 122.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2005 12.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 14.5N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 15.4N 122.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 16.2N 123.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.08.2005 16.4N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.7N 69.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2005 34.7N 69.4W MODERATE 12UTC 15.08.2005 36.2N 68.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 36.8N 65.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 36.8N 63.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 38.1N 61.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL EX-TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 47.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2005 14.3N 47.0W WEAK 12UTC 15.08.2005 15.4N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.0N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 18.0N 51.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 19.0N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 20.2N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 21.4N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 22.9N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 24.4N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 25.4N 61.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 26.1N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.08.2005 26.2N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.08.2005 26.2N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150504