** WTPQ20 BABJ 141800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 141800 UTC 00HR 29.2N 112.7E 999HPA 14M/S= P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 142028 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 ALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 50 KT WIND SPEEDS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. ASSUMING THESE VALUES WERE ATTENUATED BY RAIN...60 KT SEEMS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE INTENSITY. SINCE THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH OF WEST AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE DOING SO FOR SOME TIME...IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER THE INCREASED STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AHEAD OF FERNANDA SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENING RATE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 240/8. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE DONE USING THE QUIKSCAT PASS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 18.2N 130.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.7N 131.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 17.2N 133.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.2N 136.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 140.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 147.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 142028 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 2100Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.7W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 130.7W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 131.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 133.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 136.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 140.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 147.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 130.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 142029 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GREG IS GRADUALLY BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. THERE IS STILL CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER AND A WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT GREG HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE CENTER OF GREG HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SHALLOW AND THE DOMINANT STEERING APPEARS TO BE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER GYRE TO THE EAST....THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS SHOW LITTLE MOTION AND NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION OVER WARM WATER...A REFORMATION OR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.3N 115.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 142029 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 2100Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 115.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 142032 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED AUG 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.1N 66.5W 21 1 1 X 23 ST JOHN NB X 1 2 2 5 38.4N 64.0W 2 11 3 1 17 MONCTON NB X X 2 3 5 39.5N 61.0W X 3 8 3 14 YARMOUTH NS X 3 3 2 8 BERMUDA 1 4 1 1 7 HALIFAX NS X 1 4 4 9 MONTAUK POINT NY X 1 X 1 2 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 4 6 10 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 1 X 2 SYDNEY NS X X 1 7 8 NANTUCKET MA 1 3 1 X 5 EDDY POINT NS X X 3 5 8 HYANNIS MA X 3 1 X 4 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 6 6 BOSTON MA X 1 1 X 2 BURGEO NFLD X X X 6 6 PORTLAND ME X 1 1 X 2 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 7 7 BAR HARBOR ME X 1 2 1 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 5 5 EASTPORT ME X 1 2 2 5 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 142032 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 69.8W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 69.8W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 70.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.7N 68.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.1N 66.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.4N 64.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 39.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 52.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 69.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 142032 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 THERE WERE 2 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON. THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 992 MB AND THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 72 KNOTS. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT IRENE IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS THE BEST ORGANIZED IT HAS EVER BEEN...WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST. SINCE IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT MAY VERY WELL BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. NO CHANGE IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...020/10. IRENE HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES. SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND THERE HAS PROBABLY CAUSED SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE TRACK MODELS...AND CONTINUITY. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 34.5N 69.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 35.7N 68.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 37.1N 66.5W 65 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 38.4N 64.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 39.5N 61.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 43.0N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1800Z 52.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 142036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 ...IRENE NEARLY A HURRICANE... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM... EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...34.5 N... 69.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 142046 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 41 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE CASI UN HURACAN... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 34.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.8 OESTE O COMO A 325 MILLAS... 525 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE Y COMO A 325 MILLAS... 525 KILOMETROS... AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE BERMUDA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH... 19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA UNIDAD DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IRENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR LOS CAZA HURACANES FUE DE 992 MB...29.29 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...34.5 NORTE... 69.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NORESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 992 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/142130AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 015 DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 07E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 115.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 00 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 115.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.0N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/142135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.7N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.2N 133.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.2N 136.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/142135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.7N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 RRC *** 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.2N 133.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.2N 136.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 142200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/142135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 130.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 130.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.7N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.2N 133.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.7N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.2N 136.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.5N 140.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150400Z, 151000Z, 151600Z AND 152200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT64 KNHC 142218 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT64 KNHC 142225 *** TCUAT4 HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$