** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 141200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 141200 UTC 00HR 28.5N 113.1E 999HPA 14M/S P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.6N 110.2E 1002HPA 10M/S= ** WTPZ22 KNHC 141429 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 1500Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.5W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.5W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 115.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 118.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 141430 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. BECAUSE THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME DISORGANIZED THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WILL RESULT IN RE-STRENGTHENING. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSIFY GREG. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEADERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...GREG SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF TE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 14.5N 115.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 118.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 14.5N 130.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 141431 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 1500Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 130.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 129.6W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.5N 140.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 130.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 141432 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE COULD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...FERNANDA APPEARS TO HAVE HAD RE-DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FERNANDA SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECT OF COOL WATERS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT IT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES AGAIN WARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN KEEPS THE INTENSITY STEADY. FERNANDA HAS BEEN FORCED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 18.5N 130.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W 55 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 140.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 141437 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 IRENE IS EXHIBITING A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST. MEASUREMENT OF THE BANDING USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE EASILY SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT...IN TERMS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD NOT INHIBIT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER BEYOND THAT TIME VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. THEREFORE IRENE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. ONE MORE AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO IRENE IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z TODAY TO CHECK THE POSITION AND INTENSITY. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING HAS BENT A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... 020/10. IRENE HAS CROSSED THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGUN RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. BY 3 DAYS THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IRENE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 33.6N 69.9W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 35.1N 69.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 37.0N 67.3W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 38.6N 64.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 39.7N 61.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 42.5N 54.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/1200Z 49.5N 43.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 141437 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 ...IRENE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST OR ABOUT 310 MILES... 495 KM... WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N... 69.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 141438 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.0N 67.3W 23 1 X X 24 ST JOHN NB X 1 3 2 6 38.6N 64.5W 1 13 2 1 17 MONCTON NB X X 3 3 6 39.7N 61.5W X 3 8 3 14 YARMOUTH NS X 3 4 2 9 BERMUDA 1 3 2 1 7 HALIFAX NS X 1 5 3 9 MONTAUK POINT NY X 2 X X 2 SABLE ISLAND NS X X 3 8 11 PROVIDENCE RI X 2 1 X 3 SYDNEY NS X X 1 7 8 NANTUCKET MA 1 5 1 X 7 EDDY POINT NS X X 3 6 9 HYANNIS MA 1 3 1 1 6 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 6 6 BOSTON MA X 2 1 X 3 BURGEO NFLD X X X 6 6 PORTLAND ME X 1 1 1 3 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 7 7 BAR HARBOR ME X 2 2 1 5 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 5 5 EASTPORT ME X 1 3 2 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 141438 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 69.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 69.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 70.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.1N 69.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 67.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.6N 64.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.7N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 42.5N 54.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 49.5N 43.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.6N 69.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 141438 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005 1500Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.5W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...DISSIPATING WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 46.5W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 15/000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 46.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 141439 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 ...DEPRESSION DISSIPATING... SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DISSIPATING CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1045 MILES...1680 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 141440 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 320/6. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.8N 46.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 141441 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.6N 49.2W 50 X X X 50 18.0N 52.5W X 14 15 1 30 16.8N 50.8W 9 28 X X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 141451 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION DISIPANDOSE... LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA DEPRESION SE HA TORNADO MUY POBREMENTE DEFINIDA. A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ QUE ESTA DISIPANDOSE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 46.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1045 MILLAS... 1680 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MILLAS POR HORA... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE LOS REMANENTES DE LA DEPRESION CONTINUEN EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES EN ALGUNAS TURBONADAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MILIBARAS...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...13.8 NORTE...46.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 7 MILLAS POR HORA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MILLAS POR HORA. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1010 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE ESTE SISTEMA...A MENOS QUE EL MISMO SE REGENERE. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140930AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 115.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 115.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.5N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.5N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 14.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.5N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. WARNING POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.0N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.0N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 RRC *** 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 021 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 129.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 129.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.5N 132.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.0N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.5N 136.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.0N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142200Z, 150400Z, 151000Z AND 151600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 141715 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 129.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2005 18.8N 129.5W MODERATE 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.9N 130.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.5N 132.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 16.9N 134.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.5N 137.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 16.0N 140.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 115.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2005 15.2N 115.9W MODERATE 00UTC 15.08.2005 14.8N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 14.4N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 14.5N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 14.1N 121.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 13.9N 123.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 13.1N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 12.5N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 12.0N 128.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 12.4N 128.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 13.3N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 14.4N 129.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2005 15.5N 130.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.9N 70.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2005 32.9N 70.1W MODERATE 00UTC 15.08.2005 34.5N 70.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 36.4N 68.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 37.0N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 37.5N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 38.6N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 46.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.08.2005 13.7N 46.8W WEAK 00UTC 15.08.2005 13.6N 48.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 13.4N 50.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 14.0N 52.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 14.7N 54.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 15.5N 55.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 16.5N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 17.8N 60.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 19.5N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 20.9N 63.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2005 21.9N 65.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.08.2005 22.7N 67.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.08.2005 23.5N 69.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141715