** WTIN20 DEMS 140620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 14-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 140600 UTC 00HR 27.5N 114.5E 999HPA 14M/S P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.3N 113.4E 1002HPA 10M/S= ** WTNT24 KNHC 140833 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 70.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 70.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 70.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.1N 69.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.7N 65.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.9N 62.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 41.5N 56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 47.5N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 140837 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 ...IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320 MILES... 515 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 350 MILES... 560 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TODAY... WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK... IRENE WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS BUT WILL POSE A HAZARD TO SHIPPING INTERESTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH... 100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.6 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 140843 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 129.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 129.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 129.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 140843 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 116.1W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 116.1W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.6N 118.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 119.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.3N 120.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 116.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 140844 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005 0900Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 46.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.4N 48.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.5N 49.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 60.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 140844 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED AUG 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.4N 48.4W 58 X X X 58 17.5N 51.0W X 20 9 1 30 16.5N 49.7W 11 28 X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 140847 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 ...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED AND MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1055 MILES...1695 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.6 N... 46.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 140850 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 A 14/0447Z TRMM OVERPASS HAS HELPED IMMENSELY IN LOCATING THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TRMM IMAGE AND A 14/0123Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT THE INITIAL MOTION. THE QUIKSCAT DATA WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE GFDL BRINGS GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...EARLIER GFDL RUN INTENSITY VERIFICATION INDICATES A HIGH BIAS IN THE MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN WILL BE BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/5. TROPICAL STORM GREG SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS...ERRONEOUSLY MERGING GREG WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WELL TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A VERY STRONG RIDGE...DRIVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY INTO THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A NOGAPS...GFDL AND UKMET BLEND. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 15.2N 116.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 118.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 14.3N 119.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 14.3N 120.9W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 14.0N 130.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 140853 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 14 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION ESTA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA Y SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL OESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 46.4 OESTE O COMO A 1055 MILLAS...1695 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH... 11 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA COMO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...13.6 NORTE...46.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 7 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1009 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 140853 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONFIRMED THE EARLIER AMSU SIZE ESTIMATION DATA. THE COOLER WATERS AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER APPEAR TO BE FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON FERNANDA. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 45 AND 55 KT. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TO 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/7. THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND DAY 3. INTERROGRATION OF THE FIELDS REVEALS AN ERRONEOUS MERGING SCENARIO WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 18.9N 129.4W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W 35 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 140857 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 IRENE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD AS ALMOST -80C. HOWEVER... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS NOT STRENGTHENING... AND IN FACT IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 62 KT... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. ALSO... DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 TO 3.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT. THE STORM COULD STILL REGAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER INDICATES IT REACHING HURRICANE STATUS. THIS FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT WHILE IRENE SLID A LITTLE TO THE WEST LATE LAST NIGHT... IT HAS NOW ESTABLISHED A NEARLY DUE NORTH MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. IRENE IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AND THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE BIT FASTER. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IRENE WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND THEN MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 32.6N 70.3W 55 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 34.1N 69.9W 60 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 36.1N 68.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 37.7N 65.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 38.9N 62.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 41.5N 56.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/0600Z 47.5N 46.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 140910 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005 A SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE DEPRESSION TO THE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS CLEARLY EMERGED FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS LOW LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO... BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT HAS BEGUN MOVING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... AND THE ONLY NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 100 N MI DOWNSHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS. IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME CLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THE DEPRESSION COULD LOSE ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER... AS IRENE DID... THIS CYCLONE COULD PROVE TENACIOUS ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN... IT SEEMS LIKELY IT WILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.... AS AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS... AS INDICATED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... EVEN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES... UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... AND IT COULD STILL EVENTUALLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.6N 46.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.3N 47.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.4N 48.4W 25 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 49.7W 25 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 17.5N 51.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 20.0N 54.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 22.0N 57.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 24.5N 60.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 013 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 115.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 15.0N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.6N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.3N 119.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.3N 120.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.0N 130.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 020 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 06E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 130.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.9N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 134.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.4N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 020 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 06E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 130.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRB *** VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.9N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 134.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.4N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 RRC *** 190600Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 141000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 020 DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 06E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 19.0N 129.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 129.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 130.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 17.9N 131.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.4N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 134.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.4N 137.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141600Z, 142200Z, 150400Z AND 151000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//