** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 140000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 140000UTC 27N 115E MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 998HPA = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 140000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 140000 UTC 00HR 26.8N 115.0E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 31.0N 114.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 140000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME LOW 0510 SANVU ANALYSIS POSITION 140000UTC 27.0N 115.0E MOVEMENT NNW 10KT PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 17.8N 123.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.4N 118.2E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.2N 116.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTNT44 KNHC 140234 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 IRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS ...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE NORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT... SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER. IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE NEXT RECON FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 96 HOURS. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA RIDGE AND IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE BY MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES THAT LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC. BY 96 HOURS...A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE THEN EXTRATROPICAL IRENE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE SSMI IMAGERY AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...IRENE COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES ONTO AND NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS WHERE THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED AND REDUCE THE SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 32.0N 69.9W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 35.6N 69.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 37.4N 67.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 38.7N 64.3W 60 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 41.0N 58.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 18/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 19/0000Z 55.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 140235 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 69.9W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 69.9W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 69.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.6N 69.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.4N 67.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 38.7N 64.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 41.0N 58.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 45.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 55.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 69.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 140235 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.6W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.6W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.1N 116.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.7N 117.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.3N 118.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.3N 122.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 127.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 140235 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.6N 69.3W 33 1 X X 34 BAR HARBOR ME X X 1 4 5 37.4N 67.3W 1 16 2 X 19 EASTPORT ME X X 1 5 6 38.7N 64.3W X 2 10 3 15 ST JOHN NB X X X 6 6 BERMUDA X 3 3 1 7 MONCTON NB X X X 5 5 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 1 X 1 2 YARMOUTH NS X X 2 6 8 NEW YORK CITY NY X 1 1 X 2 HALIFAX NS X X X 8 8 MONTAUK POINT NY X 2 3 1 6 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 8 8 PROVIDENCE RI X 1 3 2 6 SYDNEY NS X X X 5 5 NANTUCKET MA X 2 5 2 9 EDDY POINT NS X X X 6 6 HYANNIS MA X 1 5 1 7 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X X 3 3 BOSTON MA X X 4 1 5 BURGEO NFLD X X X 3 3 PORTLAND ME X X 2 2 4 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 140236 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 128.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 140240 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 ...IRENE BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AT IT PASSES BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM... WEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 390 MILES... 630 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY MONDAY. IF IRENE REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS AND ONLY POSE A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND IRENE COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.0 N... 69.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 140241 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005 0300Z SUN AUG 14 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 45.5W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 45.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 140241 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.9N 47.3W 50 X X X 50 18.6N 50.3W 2 17 9 1 29 17.5N 48.6W 26 6 1 X 33 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT35 KNHC 140246 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 ...TENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1090 MILES...1755 KM... EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH... 15 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEING POORLY DEFINED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...15.0 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 140255 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 38 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 13 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE TORNANDOSE UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA MIENTRAS PASA ENTRE BERMUDA Y LAS ORILLAS EXTERIORES DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 32.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.9 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS... 480 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 390 MILLAS... 630 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE PRONOSTICA QUE OCURRIRA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE EL DOMINGO...CON UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA ESPERANDOSE PARA EL LUNES. SI IRENE PERMANECE EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...NO AFECTARA DIRECTAMENTE A NINGUNA AREA DE TIERRA Y SOLO IMPONE UN RIESGO A LOS INTERESES MARITIMOS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LEVE FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y POSIBLEMENTE IRENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...32.0 NORTE... 69.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 140300 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARN CE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. A STAIR-STEP MAY OCCUR IN THE TRACK BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 120 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT UNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL ...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS ...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.0N 45.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.8N 46.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 16.9N 47.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 48.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 18.6N 50.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 20.3N 53.8W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 23.2N 57.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 140301 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 A 14/0151Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT GREG WILL BE STEERED INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES. BEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/GFS AND UKMET INDICATING A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE SECOND CLUSTER...NOGAPS/GFDN...AND THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT SLOWER AFTER DAY 3 TO HEDGE TOWARD THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 15.3N 115.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 15.1N 116.2W 45 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 14.7N 117.2W 45 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 14.3N 118.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 14.2N 120.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 14.3N 122.6W 60 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 127.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 140301 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FERNANDA...OTHER THAN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE. DVORAK ESTIMATES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH DEPICTED A BANDING EYE FEATURE...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT...BUT MORE THAN LIKELY WILL DECREASE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. AMSU TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO CONFORM TO THE MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8...JUST SOUTH OF WEST. FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL WHICH NOW SHOWS A REDUCED MOTION BEYOND DAY 3. NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE GFDN ALL ARE INDICATING A WEAKER LOW/MID STEERING CURRENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 19.1N 128.7W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 140321 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 13 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...LA DECIMA DEPRESION TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE SOBRE LAS AGUAS ABIERTAS DEL ATLANTICO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 15.0 NORTE... LONGITUD 45.5 OESTE O COMO A 1090 MILLAS...1755 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO...PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DEBIDO A QUE EL CENTRO DE CIRCULACION ESTA POBREMENTE DEFINIDO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA UN LEVE FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...15.0 NORTE... 45.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PHNC 140400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/140330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 115.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 115.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.1N 116.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.7N 117.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.3N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.2N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.3N 122.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.0N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 128.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 128.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.9N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.4N 131.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.9N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.4N 134.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.4N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 RRB *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.4N 131.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.9N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.4N 134.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 128.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 128.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.9N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 RRC *** 170000Z --- 16.4N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 140400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/140335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 128.3W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 128.3W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.9N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.4N 131.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.9N 133.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.4N 134.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.4N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 15.5N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141000Z, 141600Z, 142200Z AND 150400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 140510 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.08.2005 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 128.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.4N 128.1W MODERATE 12UTC 14.08.2005 19.0N 129.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 18.7N 131.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 18.6N 133.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 18.0N 135.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 17.9N 138.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 115.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2005 15.5N 115.4W MODERATE 12UTC 14.08.2005 15.3N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 15.4N 117.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 15.4N 119.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 15.5N 121.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 15.2N 124.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 14.2N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 13.0N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 12.2N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 12.0N 131.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 11.4N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.08.2005 11.8N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.08.2005 12.2N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N 69.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.4N 69.6W MODERATE 12UTC 14.08.2005 33.7N 69.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 45.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2005 14.7N 45.4W WEAK 12UTC 14.08.2005 15.7N 47.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.1N 48.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 18.5N 50.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 19.8N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140510