** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 115.2E 996HPA 17M/S P12HR N 25KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 114.2E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131800 UTC 00HR 26.2N 115.2E 996HPA 17M/S P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 30.6N 114.2E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 131800 *** WARNING 131800. WARNING VALID 141800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 996 HPA AT 26.2N 115.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 28.9N 110.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 131800UTC 26.2N 115.6E FAIR MOVE N 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 141800UTC 28.9N 110.5E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT35 KNHC 132018 *** TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE ATLANTIC...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST OR ABOUT 1100 MILES...1765 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SUNDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.3 N... 44.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT75 KNHC 132019 *** SPFAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 16.5N 47.0W 51 X X X 51 18.5N 49.0W 8 19 1 1 29 17.5N 48.0W 33 4 X X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT25 KNHC 132019 *** TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102005 2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 44.9W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 44.9W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 44.6W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 44.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT45 KNHC 132019 *** TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE. DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE DATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE OR IF EXISTS AT ALL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 14.3N 44.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.0N 46.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 47.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.5N 48.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 49.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 52.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.5N 55.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 59.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 132020 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 69.5W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 69.5W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 69.4W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 40.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 132020 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 ...IRENE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD SOON...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES... 460 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 445 MILES... 715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD BRING IRENE TO HURRICANE STATUS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...31.2 N... 69.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 999 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 132020 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.5N 70.0W 36 1 X X 37 HYANNIS MA X X 4 5 9 36.5N 69.0W 4 16 2 1 23 BOSTON MA X X 2 5 7 38.5N 66.5W X 3 11 3 17 PORTLAND ME X X 1 5 6 BERMUDA X 1 3 3 7 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 6 6 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 4 1 X 5 EASTPORT ME X X X 6 6 NORFOLK VA X 1 2 X 3 ST JOHN NB X X X 6 6 OCEAN CITY MD X 1 3 1 5 MONCTON NB X X X 5 5 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X 1 2 2 5 YARMOUTH NS X X X 8 8 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 3 2 5 HALIFAX NS X X X 7 7 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 4 4 8 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 6 6 PROVIDENCE RI X X 3 5 8 SYDNEY NS X X X 3 3 NANTUCKET MA X X 5 5 10 EDDY POINT NS X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 132022 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IRENE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN DURING ITS LIFETIME. ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED BUT REMAINS VERY VIGOROUS. IN FACT...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 70 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 999 MB SINCE 1500 UTC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AND...ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 31.2N 69.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 34.5N 70.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 36.5N 69.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 60 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 40.5N 60.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 43.5N 53.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1800Z 48.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 132033 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 127.9W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 55NE 40SE 40SW 55NW. 34 KT.......100NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 127.9W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 127.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.7N 130.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 134.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 127.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 132034 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO BARELY MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. LATEST DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FIX. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE FROM AFWA IS 3.9 AND FROM TAFB IS 3.7 RESPECTIVELY. OBJECTIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE CLOSE TO 987 MB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM IS DECREASED TO 65 KT. IN ADDITION...WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A 1436Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE FSSE...GFDL AND SHIPS YIELDS A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FERNANDA WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR FERNANDA TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY ABOVE 35-40 KT AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER SSTS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INTENSITY IN THE LATER PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED IF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THEY DEPICT FERNANDA MOVING SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST. THESE FEATURES ARE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 19.3N 127.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 18.7N 130.6W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 17.7N 134.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 16.8N 137.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 132037 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 2100Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.0N 119.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 127.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 132037 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY OF GREG STILL SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS NORTHERLY SHEAR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER WAS FULLY EXPOSED...BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY FLARE UP NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE 2.5 AND FROM SAB ARE 2.0 SO THE SYSTEM IS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE DOES HAVE 35 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS SAME QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INFORMATION. THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS GREG AT 35 KT AND SLOWLY WORKS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FSSE AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL DEPICTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY SCENARIO BY DEVELOPING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEANTIME. BY THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES BRING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEYOND 96 HRS...THIS IS CONSERVATIVE APPROACH COMPARED TO THE GFDL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM TRACK GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVES GREG SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERN MOST OUTLIER IN THE GROUP. BEYOND 36 HRS...THE TRACK TURNS WEST AND REMAINS SO UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONU...GUNS AND GUNA. THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS EARLY IN THE FORECAST YIELD A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY BUT A GENERAL LONG TERM WEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.5N 114.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 15.3N 115.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 14.0N 117.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 14.0N 119.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 14.5N 125.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 127.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 132103 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 37 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SABADO 13 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE ESPERA QUE IRENE SE DIRIJA HACIA EL NORTE PRONTO...SIN IMPONER RIESGO A TIERRA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 31.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 69.5 OESTE O COMO A 285 MILLAS... 460 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE-SUROESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 445 MILLAS... 715 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE ESTA NOCHE O EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SOLO UN PEQUENO AUMENTO EN INTENSIDAD LLEVARIA A IRENE A INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS... 165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 999 MB...29.50 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...31.2 NORTE... 69.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 999 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTCA45 TJSJ 132114 *** TCPSP5 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SABADO 13 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA UNA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL ATLANTICO...SE ESPERA QUE PERMANEZCA SOBRE EL AGUA POR LOS PROXIMOS DIAS... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA NUEVA FORMADA DEPRESION TROPICAL DIEZ ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.3 NORTE... LONGITUD 44.9 OESTE O COMO A 1100 MILLAS...1765 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH... 15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA....CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION TIENE EL POTENCIAL DE CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...14.3 NORTE... 44.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1008 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 132100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 132100UTC 26.7N 115.6E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 120NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 142100UTC 29.5N 110.1E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/132135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 127.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 127.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.1N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.7N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.2N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.7N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.8N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 RRB *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.7N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.2N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.7N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 RRC *** 161800Z --- 16.8N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/132135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 127.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 127.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.1N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.7N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.2N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 17.7N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.8N 137.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.0N 141.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 145.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 132200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/132135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 19.3N 127.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 127.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.1N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PHNC 132200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/132130AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131800Z --- NEAR 15.5N 114.7W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 114.7W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.3N 115.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.7N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.0N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.0N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.5N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140400Z, 141000Z, 141600Z AND 142200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//