** WTJP21 RJTD 131200 *** WARNING 131200. WARNING VALID 141200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 992 HPA AT 25.1N 115.5E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 28.6N 111.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 131200UTC 25.1N 115.5E FAIR MOVE NNW 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 141200UTC 28.6N 111.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 24.8N 115.7E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.9N 111.5E HPA M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131200 UTC 00HR 24.8N 115.7E 992HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 28.9N 111.5E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131300 UTC 00HR 25.0N 115.6E 994HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT24 KNHC 131438 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 69.2W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 68.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.5N 69.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.6N 68.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 39.6N 64.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.1N 49.9W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 131438 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 ...IRENE REMAINS OVER OPEN WATER...POSES NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES... 455 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 480 MILES... 770 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMIAN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD BRING IRENE TO HURRICANE STATUS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...30.7 N... 69.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 131440 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTED OF A BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. SINCE THEN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES SHOW A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...IRENE HAS BEEN A PECULIAR CYCLONE THAT HAS NEVER HAD A PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THE INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT 60 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS IRENE LATER TODAY. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO SURPRISES. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE...SHIPS IS NOT SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE SAME GOES FOR THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS UNTIL IRENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES...PROBABLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT IT IS ONLY AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 30.7N 69.2W 60 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 31.8N 70.0W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 33.5N 70.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 35.5N 69.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 37.6N 68.4W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 39.6N 64.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 42.0N 58.5W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 18/1200Z 45.1N 49.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 131440 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.5N 70.0W 58 X X X 58 NANTUCKET MA X X 2 8 10 35.5N 69.4W 9 19 1 X 29 HYANNIS MA X X 2 7 9 37.6N 68.4W X 7 10 2 19 BOSTON MA X X 1 6 7 BERMUDA X X 2 2 4 PORTLAND ME X X X 5 5 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 2 1 4 BAR HARBOR ME X X X 4 4 NORFOLK VA X X 2 2 4 EASTPORT ME X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X 5 2 7 ST JOHN NB X X X 2 2 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 4 4 8 YARMOUTH NS X X X 4 4 NEW YORK CITY NY X X 3 5 8 HALIFAX NS X X X 2 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X 3 6 9 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 PROVIDENCE RI X X 1 7 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 131200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 CCA *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 131200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 CCB *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 131200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131345 CCB *** CORRECTION TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 131200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131400 UTC 00HR 25.2N 115.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 131455 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 1500Z SAT AUG 13 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 127.1W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..145NE 150SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 127.1W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 126.7W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 129.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.3N 131.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 133.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 131455 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 FERNANDA HAS STEADILY MAINTAINED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSTRAINED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT. AFWA DATA T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THE OTHER CENTERS...BUT ALL AGREE THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD TO 70 KT UNTIL DAYLIGHT SATELLITE IMAGES GIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS... FERNANDA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT BECOMES A DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY OUTLIER IS THE GFDL MODEL WHICH WEAKENS FERNANDA TO 45 KT... BUT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IT RE-STRENGTHENS IT BACK TO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE... SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AGAIN...THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS AND MODEL CONSENSUS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING FERNANDA TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 19.2N 127.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 19.2N 128.2W 60 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 18.8N 129.7W 55 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 18.3N 131.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 17.8N 133.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 131456 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 1500Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 114.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.4N 115.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 118.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 15.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 131458 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY OF GREG SHOW AN INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED CENTER AND FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AND GREG CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 RESPECTIVELY GIVING AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT... WHILE AFWA ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THE INTENSITY FOR GREG REMAINS AT 35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES DEVIATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS. THE SHORT TERM TREND HOLDS GREG AT 35 KT AND SLOWLY WORKS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS. HOWEVER... BEYOND 72 HOURS SHIPS KEEPS GREG AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHILE THE GFDL INCREASES GREG TO A HURRICANE AT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH BY KEEPING GREG AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NUDGING IT TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS FORECAST MOSTLY FOLLOWS SHIPS... HOWEVER IT DOES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE GFDL SOLUTION LATER ON IN THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/3. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...THE SHORT TERM MOTION WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT IN THE NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION... AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE QUICKLY MOVES GREG TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH GIVEN ITS PRESENT MOTION MAY BE UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY... THE OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE BAMS AND SLOWLY TRENDS BACK TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS LATER ON IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 15.4N 114.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.4N 115.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 15.0N 116.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 118.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 123.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 126.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 131459 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY OF GREG SHOW AN INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED CENTER AND FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AND GREG CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 RESPECTIVELY GIVING AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT... WHILE AFWA ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER. THE INTENSITY FOR GREG REMAINS AT 35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES DEVIATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS. THE SHORT TERM TREND HOLDS GREG AT 35 KT AND SLOWLY WORKS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS. HOWEVER... BEYOND 72 HOURS SHIPS KEEPS GREG AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHILE THE GFDL INCREASES GREG TO A HURRICANE AT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH BY KEEPING GREG AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NUDGING IT TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS FORECAST MOSTLY FOLLOWS SHIPS... HOWEVER IT DOES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE GFDL SOLUTION LATER ON IN THE PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/3. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...THE SHORT TERM MOTION WILL CONTINUE A SLOW MOVEMENT IN THE NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION... AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE QUICKLY MOVES GREG TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH GIVEN ITS PRESENT MOTION MAY BE UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY... THE OFFICIAL TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE BAMS AND SLOWLY TRENDS BACK TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS LATER ON IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 15.4N 114.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 14/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 14/1200Z 15.4N 115.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 15/0000Z 15.0N 116.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 118.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 16/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W 60 KT 96HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 123.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 126.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131500 UTC 00HR 25.3N 115.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/131530AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 114.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 114.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.6N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.4N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/131535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 127.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 127.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.2N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.8N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.3N 131.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.8N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.9N 136.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 131500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 131500UTC 25.7N 115.6E FAIR MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 130NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 141500UTC 28.7N 110.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/131530AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 114.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 114.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.6N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 15.4N 115.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.0N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.0N 118.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.5N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 RRC *** 161200Z --- 16.9N 136.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/131535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 127.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 127.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.2N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 RRB *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.8N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.3N 131.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.8N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 131600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/131535AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 017 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 19.2N 127.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 127.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.2N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.8N 129.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.3N 131.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 17.8N 133.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.9N 136.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.0N 140.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 15.0N 144.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132200Z, 140400Z, 141000Z AND 141600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 131500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS REGENERATION TAKES PLACE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (29.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131600 UTC 00HR 25.5N 115.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 131725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.08.2005 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 126.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.3N 126.8W MODERATE 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.2N 128.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 19.3N 129.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 18.8N 131.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 18.1N 133.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.2N 135.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 114.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2005 15.2N 114.3W WEAK 00UTC 14.08.2005 15.1N 114.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 14.4N 114.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 13.5N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 12.7N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 12.3N 118.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 11.2N 119.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 10.9N 120.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 11.4N 121.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 12.5N 122.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 14.2N 123.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2005 15.0N 124.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.08.2005 15.5N 124.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 68.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2005 29.8N 68.6W MODERATE 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.5N 69.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 33.8N 70.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 35.9N 69.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 131725 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131700 UTC 00HR 25.8N 115.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR N 25KM/H=