** WTPQ20 BABJ 130500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130500 UTC 00HR 23.6N 116.9E 982HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 23.8N 116.8E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.6E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.6N 110.4E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130600 *** WARNING 130600. WARNING VALID 140600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 985 HPA AT 23.7N 116.3E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 28.2N 112.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 130600UTC 23.7N 116.3E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140600UTC 28.2N 112.0E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130600 UTC 00HR 23.8N 116.8E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.4N 114.2E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.8N 110.8E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0510 SANVU (0510) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINU OUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 130710 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 13-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 130600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0510 SANVU ANALYSIS POSITION 130600UTC 23.8N 116.3E MOVEMENT NW 12KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 131800UTC 26.1N 114.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 24HR POSITION 140600UTC 27.9N 112.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130700 UTC 00HR 23.9N 116.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 130400 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 008A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 113.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 113.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.6N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.1N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER AND DELETED EXTRAPOLATED POSITION.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (23.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 012 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 116.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 116.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.2N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.5N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 115.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 130900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 012 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 23.6N 116.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 116.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.2N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.5N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 115.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 19 FEET.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130800 UTC 00HR 24.1N 116.5E 987HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 130838 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z SAT AUG 13 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 126.4W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 126.4W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 126.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 126.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 130839 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 114.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 114.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 130841 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 68.6W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 90SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 68.6W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 68.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.0N 69.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.6N 69.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.2N 69.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.0N 69.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 38.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 39.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 41.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 68.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 130845 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST OR ABOUT 270 MILES... 435 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 535 MILES... 860 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...30.1 N... 68.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 130845 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE AUG 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.6N 69.8W 54 X X X 54 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X 1 6 7 34.2N 69.8W 18 11 1 X 30 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 6 6 36.0N 69.2W X 11 6 2 19 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 6 6 BERMUDA X 1 2 4 7 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 5 5 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 1 2 NANTUCKET MA X X X 6 6 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 2 4 HYANNIS MA X X X 5 5 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 4 3 8 BOSTON MA X X X 4 4 NORFOLK VA X X 3 4 7 PORTLAND ME X X X 2 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 3 5 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 130901 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 04Z... AND THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN LESS THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTH OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION... AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT WITHIN IT... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE A BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... 997 MB. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 3.5/55 KT. WHILE THERE ARE NO HARD NUMBERS TO SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT... I WILL DO SO BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 320/9. IRENE IS BEING STEERED AROUND A NEARBY DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER BERMUDA. DATA FROM LAST NIGHT'S SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE LED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO EITHER THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OR THE FORECASTS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT IRENE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ADJUSTMENT AND TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL TRACKS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS. IT IS ALSO FASTER SINCE IRENE IS GAINING LATITUDE MORE QUICKLY NOW AND WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN ACCELERATING ON DAY 4... AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE LEFT-OUTLYING GFDN. SINCE IRENE IS STILL ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD DO SO AT ANY TIME. THE SHIPS PEAKS AT 63 KT IN 72 HOURS... WHILE THE GFDL PEAKS NEAR 80 KT AROUND THAT SAME TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH SHIPS. SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER... IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATERS SOONER... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST... IN ACCORDANCE WITH BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 30.1N 68.6W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 31.0N 69.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 32.6N 69.8W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 34.2N 69.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 36.0N 69.2W 70 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 38.0N 66.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 39.5N 62.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 41.5N 54.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 130906 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG REMAINS EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FEW INFRARED SHORTWAVE IMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ABOUT 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN HAMPERING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN SOME. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 35 KT EVEN THOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT. THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TO CONFORM TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 2....THEN MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. AFTERWARDS...THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN HURRICANE FERNANDA AND GREG SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 15.1N 114.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 130906 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE OUTER BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DEEP CORE CONVECTION PERSISTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. SAB REMAINS AT 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE LAYER WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 19.2N 126.4W 70 KT 12HR VT 13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W 40 KT 72HR VT 16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130900 UTC 00HR 24.3N 116.4E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.7N 113.6E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 30.2N 110.3E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 130900UTC 24.6N 116.0E FAIR MOVE NNW 16KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 180NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 140900UTC 28.5N 111.7E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN32 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 15.0N 114.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 114.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 15.3N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 15.2N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.7N 116.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 14.2N 117.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.2N 119.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.5N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.0N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/130335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.3N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.1N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.0N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.5N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.1N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.0N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/130335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.3N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 RRC *** 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.5N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 131000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/130335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 126.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 126.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.3N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.1N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 130.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 18.0N 132.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 17.0N 135.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.5N 139.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.5N 143.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131600Z, 132200Z, 140400Z AND 141000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131000 UTC 00HR 24.5N 116.1E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 131045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (116.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (113.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 131100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 131100 UTC 00HR 24.7N 115.9E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=