** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 117.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.4N 110.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 117.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.4N 110.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 CCB *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 117.2E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.4N 110.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130000 CCC *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130000 UTC 00HR 22.9N 117.2E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H P+24HR 27.0N 113.8E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 29.4N 110.4E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 130000 *** WARNING 130000. WARNING VALID 140000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 985 HPA AT 22.7N 117.1E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 26.4N 112.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 28.4N 108.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 130000UTC 22.7N 117.1E POOR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 270NM EAST 230NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 140000UTC 26.4N 112.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 150000UTC 28.4N 108.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 130000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0510 SANVU (0510) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 130000 UTC IS POOR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERA TE. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 12 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130100 UTC 00HR 23.2N 117.0E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (22.8 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (117.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 110900 UTC 00HR 17.9N 124.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.9N 118.1E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.6N 116.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130200 UTC 00HR 23.2N 116.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 011 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 117.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 117.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.9N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 26.5N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 116.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 130234 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0300Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.7W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 113.7W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.5W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.6N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 114.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.3N 115.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.1N 116.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.1N 119.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 14.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 130234 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z SAT AUG 13 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 125.6W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 125.6W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 125.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 130244 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005 SINCE THE LAST RECON REPORT AND 00Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ...IRENE'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. A 12/2245Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A SHARP DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH...ALL THE WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND A CDO FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT. HOWEVER... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 991 MB BASED ON A 12/2300Z PRESSURE OF 995.9 MB REPORTED BY BUOY 41927 LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE LAST RECON REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AT 12/2023Z. THE BEST MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/09...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE RECON FIX MOTION. A NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND IRENE THIS EVENING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THOSE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR 13/00Z...WITH THE UKMET HAVING THE CLOSEST VERIFICATION. THE RIDGE ...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT NARROW...EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA WESTWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS MOVING EASTWARD TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THAT TROUGH. IN THE SHORT TERM ...THIS SHOULD BUILD OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE EXISTING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IRENE...WHICH MAY CAUSE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT IRENE WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 70-72W LONGITUDE...AND THEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN MORE RIDGE SHOWING UP IN THE SYNOPTIC DROPSONDE DATA...THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THIS ADVISORY...THOUGH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BRIEF PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...DESPITE WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C AND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND CONSTANTLY HAVING TO MIX OUT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH WEAKENS IRENE TO LESS THAN 30 KT IN 48H. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 29.2N 68.3W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 29.9N 69.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 31.4N 70.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 33.0N 70.6W 75 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 34.6N 70.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 36.7N 70.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 38.0N 67.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 39.0N 61.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 130244 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z SAT AUG 13 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.3W AT 13/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 90SW 110NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 68.3W AT 13/0300Z AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 67.9W FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.9N 69.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.4N 70.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 33.0N 70.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.6N 70.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 36.7N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 38.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 39.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 68.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 130252 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON AUG 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 31.4N 70.3W 64 X X X 64 NORFOLK VA X X 3 7 10 33.0N 70.6W 26 6 1 X 33 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 8 9 34.6N 70.5W 1 14 4 2 21 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 6 6 BERMUDA X X 2 4 6 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 5 5 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 4 4 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 3 4 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3 WILMINGTON NC X X 3 4 7 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 5 5 10 HYANNIS MA X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X 1 7 4 12 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 130252 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 ...IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.2 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 130255 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF GREG HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT DEPICTS A SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTI-CYCLONE SITUATED OVER HURRICANE FERNANDA GENERATING 20 TO 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ALONG GREG'S PATH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR IS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISPLACED CONVECTION HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM AFWA AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT STRENGTHENS GREG TO A HURRICANE...IN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...TO 60 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS DOES INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS GENEROUS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 2....MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5. LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE UKMET/NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE ERRONEOUS BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER LOW TO THE EAST OF GREG. THEREFORE...CONU AND THE GUNA WHICH INCLUDE THE GFS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THE FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.6N 113.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.6N 114.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 114.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 14.3N 115.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 14.1N 116.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 14.1N 119.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 122.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 130256 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...FERNANDA'S INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT...AS THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DECREASING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES SLOWLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN GREG AND FERNANDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 18.9N 125.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 130312 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST VIERNES 12 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE ALEJANDOSE DE BERMUDA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.3 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS... 480 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 590 MILLAS... 950 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NOROESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...E IRENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...29.2 NORTE... 68.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 991 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130300 UTC 00HR 23.3N 116.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 RRB *** OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 011 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 117.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 117.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.9N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 26.5N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 116.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 130300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 011 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 117.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 117.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 24.9N 115.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 26.5N 113.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 130300Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 116.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 130339 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 CORRECTED FUTURE MOTION ...IRENE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 480 KM... SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 590 MILES... 950 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...29.2 N... 68.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 130340 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 34 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST VIERNES 12 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE ALEJANDOSE DE BERMUDA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 29.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 68.3 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS... 480 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 590 MILLAS... 950 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...E IRENE PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 991 MB...29.26 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...29.2 NORTE... 68.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 991 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 130300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 130300UTC 23.2N 117.0E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 270NM EAST 230NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 140300UTC 27.2N 112.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 150000UTC 28.4N 108.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 130300 *** WARNING 130300. WARNING VALID 140300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 985 HPA AT 23.2N 117.0E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 230 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140300UTC AT 27.2N 112.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/130335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.1N 126.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.1N 128.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.7N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.1N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.2N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.5N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 113.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 113.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.6N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.1N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 130400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 113.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.1N 128.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.7N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/130335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.1N 126.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 RRC *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.1N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.2N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.5N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/130335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 015 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 125.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 125.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.1N 126.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.1N 128.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.7N 130.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.1N 131.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.2N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 16.5N 138.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 142.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 113.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 113.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.6N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 RRB *** 141200Z --- 14.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.1N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 RRC *** 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 130400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 113.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 RRB *** 141200Z --- 14.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.1N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 RRC *** 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 130400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 113.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 130400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/130330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 130000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 113.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 113.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.6N 114.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5N 114.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.3N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.1N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.1N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 14.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 14.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 130400Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 113.7W. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 130400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 130400 UTC 00HR 23.3N 116.9E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 130445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 130300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (116.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 150 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 130523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.08.2005 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 124.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.08.2005 19.0N 124.9W STRONG 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.4N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.6N 128.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 19.5N 130.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 18.7N 132.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.8N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.6N 135.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 17.2N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 17.0N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 15.4N 142.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 14.7N 145.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 14.2N 147.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.08.2005 13.7N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 113.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.08.2005 14.3N 113.6W MODERATE 12UTC 13.08.2005 14.8N 114.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 15.2N 114.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 14.6N 115.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 13.9N 116.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 13.2N 116.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 12.7N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 12.1N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 11.9N 120.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 12.7N 121.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 13.6N 122.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.08.2005 14.6N 122.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.08.2005 15.2N 123.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.7N 67.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.08.2005 28.7N 67.8W MODERATE 12UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 68.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.4N 69.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 33.7N 69.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 35.6N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 37.9N 68.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 38.5N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 38.5N 63.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 130523