** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 21.2N 118.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121800 UTC 00HR 21.2N 118.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.8N 115.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 28.4N 112.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121800 *** WARNING 121800. WARNING VALID 131800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 985 HPA AT 21.6N 118.3E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 25.3N 114.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 27.5N 109.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 121800UTC 21.6N 118.3E POOR MOVE N 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 350NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 131800UTC 25.3N 114.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 141800UTC 27.5N 109.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121900 UTC 00HR 21.5N 118.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (25.1 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (114.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPZ21 KNHC 122039 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 2100Z FRI AUG 12 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 124.8W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 124.8W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 124.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 122041 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 67.5W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 67.5W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 67.1W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.8N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 70.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 36.0N 70.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 37.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 122000 UTC 00HR 21.8N 117.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT44 KNHC 122041 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005 AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING IRENE CONFIRMED EARLIER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC. THE RECON MEASURED 64 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB. IT ALSO REPORTED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION. BOTH SHEAR AND SST ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT SINCE NO GUIDANCE BRINGS IRENE ABOVE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. IRENE HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. IN FACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER FOR A WHILE. THEREAFTER...THE WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THIS FLOW SHOULD TAKE IRENE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. A HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT. THE DATA WILL GO INTO TONIGHT'S MODEL RUNS. NOTE: JUST AFTER THE COORDINATION CALL THE PLANE REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 75 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 60 KNOTS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 28.7N 67.5W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 30.8N 70.0W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 32.5N 70.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 34.0N 70.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 36.0N 70.4W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 37.1N 70.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 39.0N 64.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 122041 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A 75 KT HURRICANE. A NICE EYE IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DMSP SSMI DATA SHOW A MORE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM OVERALL. TAFB AND SAB REPORT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS ALSO 4.5 SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER... FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SO FERNANDA HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN FERNANDA TO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER 24 HOURS... AND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT FURTHER WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER 24 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/8. AGAIN... THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS... THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFDL TRACKS. IN COMPARISON... THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND NOGAPS IS MORE NORTH. THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS MINOR AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER SISKO FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.7N 124.8W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 122042 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON AUG 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.8N 70.0W 66 X X X 66 NORFOLK VA X X 1 7 8 32.5N 70.5W 25 8 1 X 34 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 7 7 34.0N 70.5W 1 17 2 1 21 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5 BERMUDA X X 2 4 6 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 3 3 CHARLESTON SC X X X 3 3 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 4 5 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 2 2 WILMINGTON NC X X 2 5 7 NANTUCKET MA X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 4 6 10 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 6 6 12 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 122042 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 2100Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.7W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.7W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 113.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 122042 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 ...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS IRENE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES ...475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 650 MILES...1045 KM ...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...28.7 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 118.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.6N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.2N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 118.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPZ42 KNHC 122044 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GREG. THE CENTER IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SINCE CENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB DIFFER BY 4 TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. BASED ON PREVIOUS SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM... AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE FIXES... THE OFFICIAL POSITION TENDS TOWARD THE SAB POSITION. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL CENTERS ARE ALSO MIXED...BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 50 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MAKE GREG A HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES MAKE GREG A HURRICANE BEYOND 36 HOURS... BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN FUTURE ADVISORIES AS GREG STRUGGLES IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTWARD IN TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER FROM THE 12Z RUN TAKES A HUGE SOUTH AND EAST TURNAROUND... AN UNREALISTIC RADICAL SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY... A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS PLACED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH UTILIZE THE GFS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES GREG IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS... WHICH CONSISTS OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.5N 113.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 RRB *** DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.2N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 118.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 118.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.6N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT ** WTPN31 PGTW 122100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 118.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 118.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 23.6N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 25.1N 115.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 26.2N 113.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 122100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 118.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 122058 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 33 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 12 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...AVIONES DE LA FUERZA AEREA ENCUENTRAN QUE IRENE SE ACERCA A INTENSIDAD DE HURACAN... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 67.5 OESTE O COMO A 295 MILLAS... 475 KILOMETROS...AL SUROESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 650 MILLAS...1045 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH... 17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UNGIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE CON UNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE EL PROXIMO DIA O DOS. DATOS DESDE UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 70 MPH... 110 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IRENE TIENE LA POSIBILIDAD DE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 85 MILLAS... 140 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA MAS RECIENTE REPORTADA POR UN AVION DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 997 MB...29.44 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...28.7 NORTE... 67.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 70 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA... 997 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC 00HR 22.2N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 121800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 12 (FINAL) AT 1800 12 AUGUST SEVERE TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 131800 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 122100 UTC 00HR 22.2N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.7N 114.8E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 122100 *** WARNING 122100. WARNING VALID 132100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 985 HPA AT 22.2N 117.5E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 132100UTC AT 26.1N 113.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 122100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 122100UTC 22.2N 117.5E POOR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 132100UTC 26.1N 113.6E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 141800UTC 27.5N 109.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH RPLL 121800 *** TTT STROM WARNING 12 (FINAL) AT 1800 12 AUGUST SEVERE TROPICAL STORM ''HUANING''(SANVU) (0510) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 131800 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IF THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE FROM WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FCST= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 122200 UTC 00HR 22.4N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/122135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 124.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 124.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.2N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.0N 129.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/122130AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 007 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 14.4N 113.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 113.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.6N 114.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.6N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.7N 116.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.7N 117.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.5N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/122135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 124.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 124.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.2N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.0N 129.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 122200 RRC *** 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.0N 134.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0N 141.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 122200 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.2N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.0N 129.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 122200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/122135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR 18.6N 124.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 124.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.0N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 122245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 122100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (22.1 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC TWO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (26.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (114.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 122300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 122300 UTC 00HR 22.6N 117.5E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 25KM/H=