** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTJP21 RJTD 121200 *** WARNING 121200. WARNING VALID 131200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 20.5N 118.5E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131200UTC AT 24.5N 114.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 27.4N 110.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 121200UTC 20.5N 118.5E POOR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 260NM EAST 220NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 131200UTC 24.5N 114.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 141200UTC 27.4N 110.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121200 UTC 00HR 20.1N 119.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 25.4N 115.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 27.8N 112.5E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121300 UTC 00HR 20.3N 119.1E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 119.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 119.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.7N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.1N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.9N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 26.6N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 121200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (24.3 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (114.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (26.3 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 RRB *** MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.9N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 26.6N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 119.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 119.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.7N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.1N 116.0E ** WTPN31 PGTW 121500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 119.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 119.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.7N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.1N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.9N 114.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 26.6N 112.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 118.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 121437 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 1500Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.3W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.3W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.3N 114.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.5N 116.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 121438 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS AFFECTED GREG. THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CELL IS REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER INTENSIFIES GREG TO HURRICANE STATUS BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE GFDL DOES SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT THE MOMENT STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND GREG IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. GREG SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON ITS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 14.3N 113.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 14.3N 114.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 14.5N 116.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 14.5N 117.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 121439 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 1500Z FRI AUG 12 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.9W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 123.9W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.9N 125.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.3N 126.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.4N 127.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.1N 129.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 18.0N 140.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 121439 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 ...IRENE APPEARS TO BE STRONGER ON SATELLITE...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO CHECK LATER TODAY... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST OR ABOUT 300 MILES... 485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE WILL CHECK IRENE LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...28.3 N... 66.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 121440 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 66.8W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 66.8W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 66.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 121441 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF IRENE. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE REACHED 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF IRENE WILL BE KNOWN WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST FLIGHT INTO IRENE. THE SHEAR AHEAD OF IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW..AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER A POCKET OF RELATIVELY COOL WATERS LEFT BY FRANKLIN AND HARVEY. SO INTENSIFICATION BEYOND CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS AND IN FACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN MEANDERING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW BASICALLY VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW NEAR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION OF IRENE. EVENTUALLY...A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE US COAST. THAT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CERTAIN. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 28.3N 66.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 29.2N 68.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 69.3W 75 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 31.0N 70.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 72.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 36.5N 71.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 121441 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 30.0N 69.3W 75 X X X 75 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 1 6 7 31.0N 70.0W 44 X X X 44 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 7 8 32.0N 71.0W 14 9 1 1 25 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 2 7 9 BERMUDA X X 2 5 7 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 2 7 9 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 6 6 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC X X X 5 5 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 121445 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 FERNANDA HAS LOST SOME OF ITS SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS DECREASED WITH THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM ON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE A STEADY CONSENSUS 4.5 OR 77 KT. UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE ALSO 4.5 RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY FOR FERNANDA REMAINS 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE TRACK OF FERNANDA KEEPS IT OVER 24 DEGREE C SST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...CONSEQUENTLY SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND FINALLY WEAKEN IT TO DEPRESSION STATUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DUE WEST IN THE MIDDLE AND EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. AS FERNANDA WEAKENS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 18.5N 123.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 18.9N 125.0W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 19.3N 126.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 19.4N 127.8W 55 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 19.1N 129.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 140.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121400 UTC 00HR 20.5N 118.9E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 121200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 11 AT 1200 12 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU)(0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 131200 TWO FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA44 TJSJ 121501 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 32 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 12 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE APARECE ESTAR MAS FUERTE EN LAS FOTOS DE SATELITE...UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO EN RUTA A VERIFICAR EL SISTEMA MAS TARDE HOY... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 66.8 OESTE O COMO A 300 MILLAS... 485 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 700 MILLAS...1125 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS SE ESTIMAN EN 65 MPH... 100 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y IRENE PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO VERIFICARA IRNENE TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 994 MB...29.35 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...28.3 NORTE... 66.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 65 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...994 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ ** WTPH RPMM 121200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 11 AT 1200 12 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTMATED CNTRL PRESSURE 991HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 131200 24.4 NORTH 114.0 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PHNC 121600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/PEARL HARBOR HI/120930AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR 14.0N 113.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 113.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.3N 114.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.5N 115.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.5N 116.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 14.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.5N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.5N 125.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121500 UTC 00HR 20.7N 118.8E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 17.6N 124.7E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 118.5E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.4N 116.4E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 121500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 121500UTC 21.0N 118.4E POOR MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 260NM EAST 220NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 131500UTC 24.7N 113.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 141200UTC 27.4N 110.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 121500 *** WARNING 121500. WARNING VALID 131500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 990 HPA AT 21.0N 118.4E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131500UTC AT 24.7N 113.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121600 UTC 00HR 20.8N 118.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS. AT 121500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS. AT 121500 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (24.8 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (114.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121700 UTC 00HR 21.0N 118.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 121732 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.08.2005 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 123.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.7N 123.3W STRONG 00UTC 13.08.2005 19.3N 125.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.6N 127.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.3N 129.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 18.1N 131.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.6N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.0N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 16.9N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 15.3N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 15.2N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 15.2N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 15.2N 145.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 14.4N 147.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 113.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2005 13.7N 113.0W MODERATE 00UTC 13.08.2005 14.4N 114.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 15.2N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 15.6N 116.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 15.5N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 15.3N 117.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 14.8N 118.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 14.6N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 13.7N 120.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 13.1N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 12.7N 123.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 12.2N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 12.2N 125.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.6N 131.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2005 9.6N 131.0W WEAK 00UTC 13.08.2005 10.4N 130.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 12.0N 129.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.3N 129.5W MERGED WITH FERNANDA NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 10.5N 95.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.08.2005 10.5N 95.4W WEAK 12UTC 14.08.2005 10.6N 97.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 11.7N 98.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 11.6N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 12.5N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 13.4N 106.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 14.3N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 13.3N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 14.3N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 66.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2005 27.9N 66.4W WEAK 00UTC 13.08.2005 28.9N 68.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 30.3N 69.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.5N 70.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121732