** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120600 UTC 00HR 19.2N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 21.8N 116.8E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 24.1N 114.4E 990HPA 20M/S P+72HR 26.0N 113.0E 995HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120600 *** WARNING 120600. WARNING VALID 130600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 990 HPA AT 19.9N 119.1E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 23.3N 116.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 27.4N 112.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 27.6N 110.6E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 120600UTC 19.9N 119.1E POOR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 130600UTC 23.3N 116.0E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 140600UTC 27.4N 112.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 150600UTC 27.6N 110.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.0N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.0N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.8N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.4N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 121.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUP- PRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.8N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.4N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 121.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUP- PRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTIN20 DEMS 120710 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 12-08-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 29.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTKO20 RKSL 120600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0510 SANVU ANALYSIS POSITION 120600UTC 19.9N 119.1E MOVEMENT WNW 15KT PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 130600UTC 23.3N 115.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 48HR POSITION 140600UTC 25.9N 113.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT 72HR POSITION 150600UTC 27.5N 110.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120700 UTC 00HR 19.4N 120.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 0510 SANVU (0510) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (115.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120800 UTC 00HR 19.5N 119.7E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTNT74 KNHC 120834 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON AUG 15 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 29.4N 68.0W 74 X X X 74 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 5 5 30.1N 69.1W 42 1 X X 43 WILMINGTON NC X X X 6 6 31.0N 70.1W 14 11 1 X 26 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 7 7 BERMUDA X 1 2 5 8 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 120835 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 ...IRENE STRENGTHENING...CENTER RE-LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST... DATA FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.4 WEST OR ABOUT 325 MILES... 525 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 795 MILES...1275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...27.6 N... 65.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 120836 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 65.4W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 65.4W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 64.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 66.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.1N 69.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 70.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 65.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 120841 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0900Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 112.6W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 112.6W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 13.8N 113.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.0N 114.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 14.2N 115.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.3N 116.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 112.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 120842 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z FRI AUG 12 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 123.1W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 123.1W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.6N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.1N 125.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.4N 126.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.3N 128.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 119.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 119.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.2N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.7N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.2N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.4N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 119.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WEST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 119.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 119.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.2N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.7N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.2N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.4N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 119.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WEST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 RRB *** 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 24.2N 114.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 25.4N 113.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120900Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 119.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WEST OF LUZON, PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 120900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 19.7N 119.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 119.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.2N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.7N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTNT44 KNHC 120852 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005 MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE WINDSAT...DMSP...NOAA...AND TRMM SATELLITES BETWEEN 2201Z AND 0335Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE WINDSAT AND TRMM DATA SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/13. IRENE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WITH A CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N74W. A DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS NEAR 32N70W DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. IRENE IS CURRENTLY HEADING FOR THE WEAKNESS...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO FILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IRENE RECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BEFORE IT FILLS. ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL RECURVE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES EXCEPT FOR THE OUTLIER GFDN...WHICH CALLS FOR A LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR IN ANTICIPATION OF RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK....AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. IRENE HAS DEVELOPED GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS NOW IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24-48 HR. MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COULD STILL BE A PROBLEM FOR DEVELOPMENT...AS COULD BE AN EDDY OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH 75 KT IN 48 HR...THEN LEVEL OFF IN INTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER THE EDDY. IRENE SHOULD MOVED OVER WARMER SSTS AGAIN AFTER 72 HR...BUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT AT THAT TIME IS UNCERTAIN. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME. FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 27.6N 65.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 28.5N 66.7W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.4N 68.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 30.1N 69.1W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 31.0N 70.1W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 34.5N 72.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 36.0N 72.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 120855 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 FERNANDA REMAINS A SYMMETRIC STORM WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A RECENT TRIM OVERPASS DETECTED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THE MIRCROWAVE DATA THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM VERY SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE FEW DAYS AS A STRONG NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IN THE LONGER RANGE A WEAKER FERNANDA MAY TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AS THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL STEERING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 18.1N 123.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 124.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 19.1N 125.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 19.4N 126.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 19.3N 128.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 131.2W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120900 UTC 00HR 19.5N 119.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 23.0N 116.0E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 25.3N 113.5E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPZ42 KNHC 120908 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005 THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED...AND AN AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0537Z SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REMAINS OF THE BURST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE AMSU IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. SO FAR...THE TRACK OF GREG IS NOT BEING AFFECTED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE FERNANDA...AS THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS TO ALLOW GREG TO STAY ON A WESTERLY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTELY MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY NOGAPS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACAKAGE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GUNS...AND CONU. SOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER GREG... WHICH FOR THE MOMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND ALLOW STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL RE-ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER...WITH GREG REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24-48 HR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GREG SHOULD BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 13.7N 112.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1800Z 13.8N 113.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0600Z 14.0N 114.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1800Z 14.2N 115.6W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0600Z 14.3N 116.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 15/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 120600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 0600 12 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 130600 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE EAST AT 140600 TWO TWO POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 150600 TWO FOUR POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 122.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 122.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.6N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.1N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.4N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.3N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 990 HPA AT 20.1N 118.8E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 24.0N 115.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 20.1N 118.8E POOR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 24.0N 115.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 140600UTC 27.4N 112.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 150600UTC 27.6N 110.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 120900 *** WARNING 120900. WARNING VALID 130900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 990 HPA AT 20.1N 118.8E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130900UTC AT 24.0N 115.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 120900UTC 20.1N 118.8E POOR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 130900UTC 24.0N 115.5E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 140600UTC 27.4N 112.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 12KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 150600UTC 27.6N 110.6E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 122.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 122.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.6N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.1N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.4N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.3N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.1N 125.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 19.4N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 RRC *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.3N 128.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0N 131.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.5N 139.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 121000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120935AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 122.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 122.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.6N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPH RPMM 120600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 0600 12 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTMATED CNTRL PRESSURE 994HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 130600 21.4 NORTH 116.5 EAST AND AT 140600 22.9 NORTH 114.4 EAST AND AT 150600 24.6N 112.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 120600 *** GALE WARNING 03 FOR STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH SOUTHWEST MONSOON ISSUED AT 5:00PM TODAY AUGUST 12, 2005. A SURGE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITHTHE SOUHWEST MONSOON ENCHANCED BY TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN SEABOARD OF LUZON AND VISAYAS. SEA AREAS WEST OF WESTERN LUZON AND WESTERN VISAYAS WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL RAINS WITH WINDS OF 30 TO 55KPH (16 TO 30 KNOTS) SEA CONDITIONS WILLBE MODERATE TO ROUGH WITH WAVEHEIGHT OF 1.25 TO 4.0METERS. FISHING BOATS ANS OTHER SMALL SEACRAFTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE OUT INTO THE SEA OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF LUZON AND VISAYAS. WHEN VENTURING OUT TO THE WARNED AREAS FISHING BOATS ANS OTHER SEACRAFTS ARE ALERTED AGAINTS MODERATE TO HIGH WAVES. ALL CONCERNED ARE ADVISED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES AND WATCH THE NEXT UPDATE TO BE ISSUED AT 5AM TOMORROW. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121000 UTC 00HR 19.6N 119.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 121045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (24.5 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (115.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 121100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 121100 UTC 00HR 19.8N 119.5E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 320KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NW 20KM/H=