** WTPQ20 BABJ 120000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120000 UTC 00HR 18.7N 121.5E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.4N 117.4E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 24.0N 114.6E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.9N 113.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 120000 *** WARNING 120000. WARNING VALID 130000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 992 HPA AT 19.1N 120.4E BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 21.2N 117.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 22.9N 114.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 25.0N 112.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 120000UTC 19.1N 120.4E POOR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 130000UTC 21.2N 117.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 140000UTC 22.9N 114.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 150000UTC 25.0N 112.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 120000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0510 SANVU (0510) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 120000 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED UP TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER H AS BECOME COLDER. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 121.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 121.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.5N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.2N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.8N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.8N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 120.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 120145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (23.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (25.7 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (24.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT24 KNHC 120230 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 64.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 64.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.3N 66.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.3N 67.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.0N 69.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 29.8N 70.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 33.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 64.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 120230 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGES. IRENE CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER ITS EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AND THE DEEP CONVECTION ENCOMPASSES A RATHER SMALL AREA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IS WEAK BUT APPEARS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW IRENE STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOCATING THE STORM CENTER REMAINS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY WITH INFRARED IMAGERY. THUS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...300/13...IS AN EDUCATED GUESS. NWP MODELS SHOW A 500 MB HIGH BUILDING NEAR BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS IRENE APPROACHES THE RIDGE... STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN...SO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL SUITE. THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...AS DOES THE GFS. HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED BY 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. FIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.4N 64.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.3N 66.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.3N 67.9W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 29.0N 69.2W 60 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 29.8N 70.5W 65 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 31.5N 72.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 33.0N 73.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 35.0N 74.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 120231 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 28.3N 67.9W 67 X X X 67 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 29.0N 69.2W 35 5 X X 40 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 29.8N 70.5W 2 20 1 1 24 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X X 1 5 6 WILMINGTON NC X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 5 5 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 121.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 121.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.5N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.2N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.8N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.8N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 120.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 19.0N 121.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.0N 121.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.5N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 22.2N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.8N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ** WTPN31 PGTW 120300 RRB *** VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 24.8N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 120.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 120241 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST OR ABOUT 410 MILES... 655 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 875 MILES...1405 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH... 24 KM/HR...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...26.4 N... 64.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 120246 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 111.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 111.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 111.5W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 13.8N 112.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.0N 114.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.4N 115.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 111.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 120247 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z FRI AUG 12 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 122.5W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 122.5W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 122.2W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.9N 124.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.5N 126.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.5N 127.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 134.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 122.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 120251 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 30 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 11 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.9 OESTE O COMO A 410 MILLAS... 655 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 875 MILLAS...1405 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A NOROESTE CON ALGUNA DISMINUCION EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS CONDICIONES APARENTAN SER FAVORABLES PARA FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...26.4 NORTE... 64.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 120254 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 FERNANDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS JUST ABOUT TO PASS OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER FERNANDA... AND WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL SINCE THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE THROUGH 12 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FOUR DAYS... AND OVERALL IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM TRMM... SSMI... AND AMSU EARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT FERNANDA TOOK A JOG TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS... BUT THE SMOOTHED MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS BEEN 300/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CENTERED NEAR 25N130W... BUT THE RIDGE IS WEAKER DUE NORTH OF FERNANDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO... UNTIL THE RIDGE FORCES A WEAKENING FERNANDA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR PERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. THE OUTLYING NOGAPS SOLUTION THAT TAKES FERNANDA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IS DISCOUNTED... SINCE THAT MODEL INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO FAR TO THE WEST... RESULTING IN TOO MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS AS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.8N 122.5W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W 65 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 18.9N 124.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 19.5N 126.2W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 19.5N 127.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 18.5N 134.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 120301 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 22Z NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION... AND THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING. EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE RESTRICTION TO THE NORTHEAST... UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION... AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN MORE... AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GREG SHOULD REMAIN OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS. GREG HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST... 280/8... OBVIOUSLY UNAFFECTED BY HURRICANE FERNANDA WHICH IS TOO FAR WEST TO INDUCE GREG TOWARD THE NORTH. INSTEAD... GREG IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT SEEM TO HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION ARE THE GFDL AND GFS... SO THESE MODELS ARE GIVEN FAR GREATER WEIGHT THAN THE OTHERS IN THE TRACK FORECAST. EVEN THE GFDL AND GFS FORECAST A TRACK CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE MODELS BUT IS KEPT NORTH OF THEM FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 13.6N 111.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 13.8N 112.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 114.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 13/1200Z 14.2N 115.0W 70 KT 48HR VT 14/0000Z 14.4N 115.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 15/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 16/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 122.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 122.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.3N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.9N 124.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.5N 126.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.5N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120300 UTC 00HR 19.1N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPN32 PHNC 120400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120330AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 111.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 111.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 13.8N 112.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 14.0N 114.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 14.2N 115.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 14.4N 115.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 14.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 14.5N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.0N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 120000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 09 AT 0000 12 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM "HUANING (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMTED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 130000 TWO TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST AND AT 140000 TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 120300 *** WARNING 120300. WARNING VALID 130300. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 992 HPA AT 19.6N 119.4E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130300UTC AT 22.2N 116.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 120300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 119.4E POOR MOVE WNW 15KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 240NM FORECAST 24HF 130300UTC 22.2N 116.2E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 140000UTC 22.9N 114.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 150000UTC 25.0N 112.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.9N 124.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.5N 126.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 122.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 122.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.3N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 RRC *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.5N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 120400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/120335AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 011 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 17.6N 122.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 122.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.3N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.9N 124.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 19.5N 126.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.5N 127.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 18.5N 134.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.5N 138.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH RPMM 120000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0000 12 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE NINE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 130000 22.4 NORTH 116.2 EAST AND AT 140000 25.3 NORTH 114.3 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120400 UTC 00HR 19.2N 120.7E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 120445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 120445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 120300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (115.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (108.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 120519 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.08.2005 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.7N 122.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.7N 122.0W STRONG 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.7N 123.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 19.3N 124.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.6N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.5N 128.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 18.7N 130.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.9N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.7N 133.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.0N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.8N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 15.4N 139.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 15.3N 140.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.08.2005 14.5N 142.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 111.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.08.2005 13.7N 111.5W MODERATE 12UTC 12.08.2005 14.2N 112.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 14.8N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 15.6N 114.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 15.6N 114.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 15.1N 115.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 14.2N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 13.0N 116.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 12.1N 117.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 11.7N 118.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 12.1N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 12.9N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.08.2005 13.9N 121.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.7N 64.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.08.2005 25.7N 64.3W WEAK 12UTC 12.08.2005 27.2N 65.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 28.7N 67.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 69.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.2N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120519 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 120500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 120500 UTC 00HR 19.2N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H=