** WTPQ20 BABJ 111800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 111800 UTC 00HR 18.0N 122.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 118.1E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 23.0N 115.4E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 24.8N 114.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 111800 *** WARNING 111800. WARNING VALID 121800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 994 HPA AT 18.2N 122.4E LUZON MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121800UTC AT 20.5N 118.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 131800UTC AT 22.9N 114.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 25.0N 112.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 111800UTC 18.2N 122.4E POOR MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121800UTC 20.5N 118.1E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 131800UTC 22.9N 114.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 141800UTC 25.0N 112.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PGTW 112100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.0N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.8N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.4N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 121.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUP- PRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 112000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.0N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS ** WTPN31 PGTW 112000 RRB *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.8N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.4N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 121.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUP- PRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 112000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 18.4N 122.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 122.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 20.0N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.4N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 22.8N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.8N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 25.4N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 112100Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 121.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUP- PRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 111945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121800 UTC TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131800 UTC TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPZ42 KNHC 112027 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND ARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS. IT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING TO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP GREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY OVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS INDICATED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 112027 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 2100Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 112027 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND ARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS. IT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING TO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP GREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY OVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS INDICATED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W 50 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 112027 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 2100Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 110.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 110.5W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 112029 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 2100Z THU AUG 11 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 121.8W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 121.8W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.7N 122.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.1N 124.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.4N 125.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 35SE 35SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 112029 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 SO MUCH FOR THE WEAKENING OF FERNANDA WHICH IS DISPLAYING A BANDED EYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1508Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE THOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE EYE MAY BE SHRINKING AND CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BETWEEN AODT'S OF 4.4 AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT FROM THE STANDARD DVORAK CURVE BASED ON CONSECUTIVE CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...FERNANDA IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTERM AND SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN A SLOW DECAYING TREND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND PARALLELLS THE 25C ISOTHERM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BEYOND 3 DAYS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM. FERNANDA IS BECOMING MORE CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD...FERNANDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND KEEPING A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWEST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NOGAPS SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII FOLLOW WIND RADII CLIPER. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.3N 121.8W 70 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.7N 122.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.1N 124.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.4N 125.2W 55 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 112040 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 63.9W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 63.9W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.7N 65.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.8N 67.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.5N 69.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.1N 70.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 33.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 35.0N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 63.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 112041 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.8N 67.6W 66 X X X 66 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 28.5N 69.1W 30 9 X X 39 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 29.1N 70.5W 1 22 1 1 25 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 4 4 WILMINGTON NC X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X X 1 4 5 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 4 4 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 2 2 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 3 3 FT PIERCE FL X X X 3 3 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 112044 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY GET BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 460 MILES... 740 KM... SOUTH OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 950 MILES...1530 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...25.7 N... 63.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 112049 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY. THE SYSTEM IS ELONGATED WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATION...BASED ON CURVED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND CONTINUITY...IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AND NOT FARTHER EAST INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY AND AND PARTLY ON THE MODELS INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS OR THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IRENE AND THE ALLEGED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG 70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN THE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF DISSIPATING IRENE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND MAINTAINING AN EAST- WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND GFDN SOLUTIONS...WHICH MOVE IRENE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED TO ONLY 5 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WEAK STEERING CURRENTS LESS THAN 10 KT OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN ERRATIC MOTION...SO A POSSIBLE U.S. LANDFALL BY DAY 5 CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTH OF IRENE HAS BEEN ADVECTING DRY MID-LEVEL INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY...WHICH HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO ERODE AND WEAKEN AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THEREFORE... DEEP CONVECTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS NOW DECREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY TO LESS THAN 70 KT DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONGER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL SINCE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT HOLD ONTO IRENE AFTER 48 HOURS... WHICH RESULTS IN AN ARTIFICIALLY STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GFS MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 25.7N 63.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.7N 65.6W 55 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 27.8N 67.6W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 28.5N 69.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 29.1N 70.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 31.0N 72.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 33.0N 73.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 35.0N 74.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 112100 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 29 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST JUEVES 11 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUA TORNANDOSE GRADUALMENTE MEJOR ORGANIZADA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.9 OESTE O COMO A 460 MILLAS... 740 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE BERMUDA Y COMO A 950 MILLAS...1530 KILOMETROS...AL SURESTE DE CABO HATTERAS EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH... 24 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL...CON UN AUMENTO GRADUAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION...OCURRA POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS... 95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...25.7 NORTE... 63.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.7N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.4N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/112135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.7N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.4N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/112130AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.3N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.0N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 112100 *** WARNING 112100. WARNING VALID 122100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 992 HPA AT 18.5N 121.8E SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF BASHI CHANNEL MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 122100UTC AT 21.1N 117.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 112100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 112100UTC 18.5N 121.8E POOR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 122100UTC 21.1N 117.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 131800UTC 22.9N 114.8E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 141800UTC 25.0N 112.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 RRC *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.7N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.4N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.7N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.4N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT ** WTPQ20 BABJ 112100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 112100 UTC 00HR 18.4N 121.8E 990HPA 20M/S 30KTS 320KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 21.0N 117.6E 985HPA 30M/S P+48HR 23.6N 114.8E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 25.5N 113.5E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 RRC *** --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 111800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 1800 11 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU)(0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMI CIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 121800 TWO THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/112135AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 010 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 17.1N 121.4W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 121.4W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.7N 122.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.4N 125.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.5N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.5N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.5N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 18.5N 135.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 112245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 112100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (121.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (22.6 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (116.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 132100 UTC TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (25.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (109.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PHNC 112200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/112130AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 003 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.3N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.0N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN32 PHNC 112200 COR *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/112130AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 003A CORRECTED 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 110.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 110.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.3N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.0N 113.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 15.5N 114.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 16.0N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 00 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 16.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 16.0N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 16.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED TAU 72 POSITION.//