** WTPQ20 BABJ 111200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 111200 UTC 00HR 17.8N 123.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 120.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.4N 118.2E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.2N 116.2E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 111200UTC 18.1N 123.1E POOR MOVE WNW 20KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM EAST 140NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121200UTC 20.4N 119.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 131200UTC 22.4N 115.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 141200UTC 24.9N 113.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 VHHH 111345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131200 UTC TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPZ41 KNHC 111435 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GETTING MORE RAGGED ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE SOLIDLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB. THE CYCLONE HAS LIKELY PEAKED WITH COOLING SSTS IN ITS PATH AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER ALREADY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO NEARLY PARALLEL THE 25C ISOTHERM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS BEYOND 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR CYCLONES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 25C. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. FERNANDA HAS PASSED THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SHOULD BECOME MORE CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON THEN TO THE WEST BEYOND 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD ALSO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. THE NOGAPS IS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...KEEPING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST BECAUSE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WEAKENS THE HIGH MORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE UNREASONABLE HIGHER STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST BY NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ACCELERATES THE DECAYING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 16.9N 121.2W 65 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.4N 122.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 17.9N 123.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 18.3N 124.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 18.6N 125.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 18.8N 127.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 19.0N 133.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 111435 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A LOT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FERNANDA. BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NAMED GREG. SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT STRENGHTENING...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. GREG APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS THE AS INDICATED BY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA SHOULD INDUCE A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS TO RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 13.6N 110.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTPZ22 KNHC 111435 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 1500Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 110.5W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 110.5W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 110.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 110.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 111435 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 1500Z THU AUG 11 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.2W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.4N 122.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.9N 123.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.6N 125.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.8N 127.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 19.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 123.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 123.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.1N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.6N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.9N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.1N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.8N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 26.1N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 123.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUPPRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING EAST OF TAIWAN. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 111442 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 RRC *** --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 123.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUPPRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING EAST OF TAIWAN. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 RRB *** 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.1N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.8N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 26.1N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 123.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 123.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.1N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.6N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.9N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 111500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (SANVU) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 17.6N 123.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 123.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 19.1N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.6N 119.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.9N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 23.1N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 24.8N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 26.1N 113.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 111500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 123.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (SANVU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE REMAINS SUPPRESSED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING EAST OF TAIWAN. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 111445 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 ...IRENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT STRENGTHENS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES... 830 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1040 MILES...1670 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.1 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 111446 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 27.2N 66.4W 49 X X X 49 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 2 2 28.0N 68.0W 24 9 X X 33 WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3 28.6N 69.5W 3 20 3 1 27 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X X 1 2 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 4 4 CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 111449 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 ...IRENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT STRENGTHENS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 515 MILES... 830 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1040 MILES...1670 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...25.1 N... 62.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 111449 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 200SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 62.6W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 62.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 111452 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER MAY BE BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE SAME DIRECTION. DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD A TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN 11/1052Z SSMI MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND RECENT ODT ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN 15 KT...BUT SOME OF THAT APPARENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. AS IRENE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS RECURVING IRENE THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...QUICKLY DISSIPATES IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 28.5C AND 29C...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 120 HOURS. SO THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE NAVIGATING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND THEN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 5 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE WARMER GULFSTREAM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.1N 62.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 111453 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE ESTA TORNANDO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.6 OESTE O COMO A 830 MILLAS SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA...Y COMO A 1040 MILLAS...1670 KM...SURESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS DE CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH... 28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...25.1 NORTE... 62.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 111453 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005 DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER MAY BE BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE SAME DIRECTION. DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD A TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN 11/1052Z SSMI MICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND RECENT ODT ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN 15 KT...BUT SOME OF THAT APPARENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. AS IRENE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS RECURVING IRENE THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...QUICKLY DISSIPATES IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN SOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND UNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 28.5C AND 29C...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 120 HOURS. SO THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE NAVIGATING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND THEN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 5 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE WARMER GULFSTREAM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.1N 62.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 26.0N 64.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 27.2N 66.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.6N 69.5W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 30.4N 72.3W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/1200Z 32.5N 74.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 75.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 111454 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE ESTA TORNANDO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.6 OESTE O COMO A 830 MILLAS SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA...Y COMO A 1040 MILLAS...1670 KM...SURESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH... 28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...25.1 NORTE... 62.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 111507 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 28 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST JUEVES 11 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE ESTA TORNANDO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.6 OESTE O COMO A 830 MILLAS SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA...Y COMO A 1040 MILLAS...1670 KM...SURESTE DE CAPE HATTERAS EN CAROLINA DEL NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH... 28 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH... 85 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1000 MB...29.53 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...25.1 NORTE... 62.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 17 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 50 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1000 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 111500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 111500 UTC 00HR 18.1N 122.8E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPH RPMM 111200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 1200 11 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECST POSITION AT 121200 20.6 NORTH 118.8 EAST AND AT 131200 23.6 NORTH 114.6 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPROTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 111600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 120.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 120.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.4N 122.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.9N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.3N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.6N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.8N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 111500 *** WARNING 111500. WARNING VALID 121500. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 992 HPA AT 18.1N 122.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 121500UTC AT 20.5N 118.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 111500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 111500UTC 18.1N 122.8E POOR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 121500UTC 20.5N 118.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 131200UTC 22.4N 115.4E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 09KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 141200UTC 24.9N 113.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPN31 PHNC 111600 RRC *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.8N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 111600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 120.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 120.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.4N 122.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 111600 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.9N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.3N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.6N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PHNC 111600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 009 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 120.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 120.8W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.4N 122.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.9N 123.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.3N 124.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.6N 125.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.8N 127.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 19.0N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 19.0N 133.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 111200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 1200 11 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM "HUANING" (SANVU) (0510) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 121200 TWO ZERO POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 131200 TWO THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PHNC 111600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN/ PEARL HARBOR HI/111530AUG2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 07E (GREG) WARNING NR 002 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 111200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 110.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 110.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 14.0N 112.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 14.8N 114.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.5N 116.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.5N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 19.5N 119.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 22.0N 122.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 23.0N 124.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 111645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 111500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 131500 UTC TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (23.9 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (114.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 111743 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.08.2005 HURRICANE FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 120.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.5N 120.8W STRONG 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.1N 122.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.0N 123.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 19.0N 124.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.6N 126.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.7N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 18.8N 130.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 18.2N 131.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.4N 132.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 16.2N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.1N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 16.1N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2005 16.2N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM GREG ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 109.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP072005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.08.2005 13.6N 109.8W WEAK 00UTC 12.08.2005 13.9N 111.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 15.1N 112.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 15.7N 113.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 16.1N 113.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 16.2N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 15.2N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 13.7N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 12.5N 117.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 12.5N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 11.5N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 11.9N 120.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.08.2005 12.7N 121.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.6N 62.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.08.2005 24.6N 62.5W MODERATE 00UTC 12.08.2005 26.2N 65.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 27.9N 66.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 29.0N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 29.6N 69.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 30.5N 69.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 31.9N 70.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 33.2N 69.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 34.6N 69.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 35.3N 69.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111743