** WTIN20 DEMS 110638 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 110600 *** WARNING 110600. WARNING VALID 120600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA AT 17.9N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 20.4N 120.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 21.7N 117.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 23.1N 114.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 110600UTC 17.9N 124.8E POOR MOVE NW 20KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 260NM EAST 140NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 120600UTC 20.4N 120.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 130600UTC 21.7N 117.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 140600UTC 23.1N 114.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0510 SANVU (0510) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND TO WEST. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110600 UTC IS POOR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0510 SANVU ANALYSIS POSITION 110600UTC 17.9N 124.8E MOVEMENT NW 20KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120600UTC 20.5N 121.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT 48HR POSITION 130600UTC 21.9N 118.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 992HPA 43KT 72HR POSITION 140600UTC 24.3N 115.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 110600 UTC 00HR 17.6N 124.7E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 120.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.5N 118.5E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.4N 116.4E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 110841 *** TCMEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0900Z THU AUG 11 2005 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 120.5W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 120.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.6N 122.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.1N 123.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.3N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 120.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 110841 *** TCDEP1 HURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF FERNANDA WAS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...GIVES A T4.0...AND THE 6Z ODT 3-HR T NUMBER WAS 4.1. ON THIS BASIS...FERNANDA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE QUITE AS SYMMETRIC. WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER FERNANDA ARE ALREADY COMING DOWN...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE IS PEAKING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED OR AS SHOWN BELOW. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8...SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT FERNANDA WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF THIS LOW AND SHOULD BE GRADUALLY STEERED MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 16.5N 120.5W 65 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 17.6N 122.7W 65 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 18.1N 123.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 18.3N 124.7W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 18.7N 126.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W 35 KT $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 110845 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005 THE ORGANIZATION OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...WITH A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE AND IN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR MY ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO APPEARS STRONG. HOWEVER...A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL HARD TO FIND...WITH 06Z FIXES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SPREAD BY ABOUT 90 NMI...AND THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR 295/12. 00Z RAOB DATA AND GLOBAL ANALYSES SHOW A 500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTER JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND IRENE'S TRACK COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD BEND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS FLOW COULD TURN IRENE NORTHWARD BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS. EVEN THE BAM MODELS...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NOW FAVOR A RECURVING TRACK OFFSHORE. THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES IRENE...KEEPS ITS REMNANTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...AND THE GFDN ALSO TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY POINTS AND IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL WHAT KIND OF THREAT IRENE COULD POSE FOR THE UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 24.2N 61.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 110845 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 61.0W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 60.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.9N 62.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 64.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.9N 68.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.5N 71.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.5N 73.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 61.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 110845 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN AUG 14 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 26.0N 64.9W 46 X X X 46 BERMUDA X X 1 3 4 27.0N 66.7W 13 18 X X 31 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 2 2 27.9N 68.3W X 19 6 1 26 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 110847 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 ...IRENE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 61.0 WEST OR ABOUT 605 MILES... 975 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...24.2 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 125.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 125.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.0N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.4N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.8N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.9N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.6N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.4N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 124.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 125.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 125.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.0N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.4N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.8N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 RRC *** AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 RRB *** 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.9N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.6N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.4N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 124.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ** WTCA44 TJSJ 110853 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 27 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MIERCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE ESTA TORNANDO MEJOR ORGANIZADO... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 61.0 OESTE O COMO A 605 MILLAS...975 KM...AL SUR SURESTE DE BERMUDA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH... 22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE SUGIEREN QUE IRENE CONTINUA MEJORANDO SU ORGANIZACION...Y SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...24.2 NORTE... 61.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 110900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 125.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 125.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.0N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.4N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 20.8N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 21.9N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 23.6N 116.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 24.4N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 25.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110900Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 124.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS SANVU 0510 (0510) INITIAL TIME 110900 UTC 00HR 17.9N 124.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.2N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 21.9N 118.1E 985HPA 30M/S P+72HR 23.6N 116.0E 990HPA 20M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 110600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 0600 11 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU)(0510) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSTION AT 120600 ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 130600 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE EAST AND AT 140600 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPMM 110600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 0600 11 AUGUST TROPICAL STORM HUANING (SANVU) (0510) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTOMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS OF EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECST POSITION AT 120600 ONE NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 130600 TWO ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT ONE EAST AND AT 140600 TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTJP31 RJTD 110900 *** WARNING 110900. WARNING VALID 120900. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0510 SANVU (0510) 992 HPA AT 18.0N 123.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 23 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 260 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 140 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120900UTC AT 20.4N 119.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0510 SANVU (0510) ANALYSIS PSTN 110900UTC 18.0N 123.8E POOR MOVE WNW 23KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 260NM EAST 140NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 120900UTC 20.4N 119.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 130600UTC 21.7N 117.3E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 140600UTC 23.1N 114.5E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 120.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 120.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.0N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.6N 122.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 123.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.3N 124.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.7N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 120.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 120.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.0N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 RRC *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.3N 124.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.7N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 RRB *** 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.6N 122.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 123.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 RRD *** ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 111000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 008 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 06E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 16.3N 120.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 120.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 17.0N 121.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.6N 122.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 18.1N 123.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 18.3N 124.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 18.7N 126.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 19.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 19.0N 131.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.// ** WTPZ22 KNHC 111034 *** TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072005 1100Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.8W AT 11/1100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 109.8W AT 11/1100Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 109.0W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 109.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTPZ42 KNHC 111047 *** TCDEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS MORNING. A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 01Z CLEARLY SHOWED 3/4 OF A CIRCULATION. A TRMM PASS AT 06Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...WITH A BROADER BAND FARTHER OUT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY JUST OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ROTATION TO CONCLUDE THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER EXISTS. THE PRESENT PATTERN WAS ASSESSED TO BE T2.0 BY TAFB AT 9Z...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY ABOUT 650 NMI BEHIND FERNANDA...AND FERNANDA COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION. A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT RUN. THE MEDIUM BAM WAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS A FAIR BIT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SO I AM PRESUMING MORE OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES THAN INDICATED BY THE BAMM...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE DEPRESSION WELL TO THE RIGHT OF EITHER THE GFS OR THE BAM GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF INCONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT MOTION AND A POOR INITIALIZATION...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NO PARTICULAR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT IT...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH OUTFLOW FROM FERNANDA...AND IF IT TAKES THE FORECAST PATH...WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH COLD WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS. THUS ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1100Z 13.2N 109.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W 35 KT 72HR VT 14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPQ20 VHHH 111045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY. AT 110900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM SANVU (0510) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (119.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (23.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (25.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PHNC 111200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07E WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110600Z --- NEAR 12.9N 109.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 109.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 13.6N 111.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 14.2N 112.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 15.3N 114.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 16.7N 116.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 19.0N 118.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 22.0N 120.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z. REFER TO HURRICANE 06E (FERNANDA) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//