** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 16.1N 126.3E POOR MOVE WNW 17KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 20.1N 122.0E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 14KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 16.1N 126.3E 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL EXTEND TO WEST. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS POOR. TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TD WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.3N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.9N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.4N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.6N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.6N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.2N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 26.4N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 126.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 110232 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 ...IRENE REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 680 MILES...1095 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...23.5 N... 59.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 110232 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005 IRENE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THIS SUPPORTS RE-UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH WHERE IT IS BEING IMPEDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT HAD BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABATING AND THAT IRENE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS USUAL...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OWING TO A LACK OF SKILL IN LONGER-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION. RECENT CENTER FIXES FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY'S SAKE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE CURRENT MOTION ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...290/11. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE THAT CONCERNS US IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS RIDGE WILL DRIVE IRENE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN...OR MOVE MORE WESTWARD AND REACH THE COAST AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFDN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 23.5N 59.8W 35 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 24.2N 61.5W 40 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 25.4N 63.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 26.3N 65.7W 50 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 28.5N 70.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W 70 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.3N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.9N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.4N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 RRB *** RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.6N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.6N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.2N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 10W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 15.8N 127.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 127.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.3N 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.9N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 20.4N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 21.6N 119.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 23.6N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 25.2N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 26.4N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 126.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 RRC *** VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 26.4N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 126.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTNT74 KNHC 110233 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 25.4N 63.8W 46 X X X 46 27.2N 67.5W X 18 7 1 26 26.3N 65.7W 12 19 X X 31 BERMUDA X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 110233 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 59.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 59.2W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N 61.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.4N 63.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 28.5N 70.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 59.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 110235 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z THU AUG 11 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 120.0W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 120.0W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 119.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 120.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 110241 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH IMPRESSIVE INNER AND OUTER SPIRAL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INNER CORE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT. SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES. THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PROVIDED BY A MID TO UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE UPPER LOW CAUSING FERNANDA TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN THE NOGAPS DEVIATES TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE GUNA AND CONU MODEL BLENDS AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 16.3N 120.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 65 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W 70 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W 60 KT 72HR VT 14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W 50 KT 96HR VT 15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 110244 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 26 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MIERCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE VUELVE A OBTENER INTENSIDAD DE TORMENTA TROPICAL... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 59.8 OESTE O COMO A 680 MILLAS...1095 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH... 20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO HASTA CERCA DE 40 MPH... 65 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...23.5 NORTE... 59.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 16.7N 125.8E POOR MOVE WNW 16KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 20.3N 121.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 13KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 110400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 119.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 119.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.8N 122.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.3N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.7N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.0N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z. ** WTPH20 RPMM 110000 *** T T T WARNING 05 AT 0000 11 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120000 ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AT 130000 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 140000 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORHT ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN THE DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 110400 RRB *** 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.3N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.7N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 110400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 119.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 119.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.8N 122.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 110400 RRC *** 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.0N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 110400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 119.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 119.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.8N 122.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.3N 123.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.7N 124.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 19.0N 126.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 19.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 19.0N 132.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z. ** WTPH RPLL 110000 *** TTT WARNING 05 AT 0000 11 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPSCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWOZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 120000 ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN NROTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST AT 130000 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 140000 TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 110532 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 119.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.08.2005 15.7N 119.5W MODERATE 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.8N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.8N 122.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.7N 123.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 19.0N 124.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.6N 126.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.7N 128.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 19.5N 130.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.8N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 18.5N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 17.8N 133.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.0N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2005 15.2N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.1N 59.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.08.2005 23.1N 59.3W WEAK 12UTC 11.08.2005 24.5N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 26.0N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 27.2N 65.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 28.7N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 67.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 30.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 32.7N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110532