** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 109.7E 996HPA 12M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 107.3E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 101800 UTC 00HR 19.2N 109.7E 996HPA 12M/S P12HR W 10KM/H P+24HR 20.4N 107.3E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092351Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 128.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 128.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.6N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.2N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.7N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.1N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 127.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092351Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 128.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 128.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.6N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.2N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.7N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 RRB *** 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.1N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 127.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092351Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.3N 128.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 128.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.6N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.2N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 19.7N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.1N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 23.4N 118.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 127.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM EAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 102100 RRC *** INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// ** WTNT44 KNHC 102042 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005 IRENE'S CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...IT STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....BUT IT IS BELIEVED TO BE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHERE A FEW NEW CELLS HAVE BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA AND THE MOST RECENT ODT VALUES...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE IS VERY NEAR REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...UNTIL SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... ESPECIALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS...HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE 06Z. IN FACT...THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODEL HAS MADE A 450 NMI WESTWARD SHIFT AT 120 HOURS. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL IS THE UKMET ...WHICH INSISTS THAT IRENE WILL PLOW NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE 5950 METER 500 MB HEIGHTS AT BERMUDA AND A WEST WIND OF 10 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THE HIGH CENTER IS SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND DIRECTLY IN THE PATH OF THE UKMET SOLUTION. EXCLUDING THE UKMET MODEL...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH LESS THAN A 60 NMI SPREAD. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAY 4. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN...ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH AND EAST-WEST EXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THE FACT THAT EACH MODEL MAINTAINS HIGHLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. SUCH FAST MOVING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TENDS NOT TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORTWAVES TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THE GFDN MODEL IS THE FASTEST AND WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES IRENE TO NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BY 120H...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL BRINGS IRENE TO ABOUT 90 NMI EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS JUST AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 26 PERCENT BY DAYS 4 AND 5. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 29C ALONG THE TRACK...SO THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR. HOWEVER... HURRICANES CAN STILL FORM IN SUCH DRY CONDITIONS...AND THAT IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE THING THAT THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ENSURE IS THAT OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS WILL NOT EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP IRENE A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES TEND NOT TO PLOW THROUGH STRONG RIDGES. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 22.8N 58.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 23.2N 60.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 24.1N 62.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 25.1N 65.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 27.4N 69.6W 55 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 32.0N 75.5W 70 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 102043 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z WED AUG 10 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 58.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 58.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 58.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.2N 60.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 62.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.1N 65.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 27.4N 69.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 55SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 32.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 58.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 102044 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.1N 62.8W 52 X X X 52 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 25.1N 65.1W 2 33 X X 35 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 26.1N 67.3W X 10 17 1 28 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 102044 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 2100Z WED AUG 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.0W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 119.0W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 118.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.8N 121.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.4N 123.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.8N 124.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.3N 126.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.3N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 119.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 102044 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 FERNANDA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED RAINBANDS AROUND THE CDO AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SMALL EYE WAS FORMING WITH CONVECTION NOW BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 60 KT. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW LITTLE SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE STORM WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALMOST 4 TIMES THE MEAN SO FERNANDA COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THAN SUGGESTED BELOW. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE... 290/9. THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS THEN NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 15.7N 119.0W 60 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W 70 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 16.8N 121.7W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 17.4N 123.0W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 17.8N 124.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 13/1800Z 18.3N 126.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1800Z 18.3N 128.5W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 102047 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST OR ABOUT 750 MILES...1210 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.8 N... 58.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 102056 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 25 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MIERCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE CONTINUA TORNANDOSE MEJOR ORGANIZADA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.8 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 58.8 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 750 MILLAS...1210 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO ENTRE OESTE Y OESTE-NOROESTE CONTINUE POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH... 55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS E IRENE PODRIA VOLVER A ALCANZAR LA CATEGORIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O EL JUEVES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...22.8 NORTE... 58.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTPH RPLL 181800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 10 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.0N 127.6E FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT 03MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111800 16.1N 125.4E AT 121800 12.6N 123.4E AND AT 131800 19.4N 121.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 101800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFCE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 111800 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 121800 ONE SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 131800 ONE NINE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 119.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 119.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.1N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.8N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.4N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.8N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.3N 126.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.3N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 119.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 119.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.1N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.8N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.4N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 RRC *** 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.8N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.3N 126.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.3N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 RRD *** 151800Z --- 18.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z. ** WTPN31 PHNC 102200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 15.7N 119.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 119.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.1N 120.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 16.8N 121.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 17.4N 123.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 17.8N 124.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 18.3N 126.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.3N 128.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 18.3N 131.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.