** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 19.3N 110.2E 995HPA 13M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 107.7E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 101200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 101200 UTC 00HR 19.3N 110.2E 995HPA 13M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 20.3N 107.7E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092351Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.7N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 129.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 092351Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 100000 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTNT24 KNHC 101436 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z WED AUG 10 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 57.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 57.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 69.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 57.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 101436 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005 THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT...HOWEVER...TO DETERMINE AN EXACT CENTER LCOATION...ESPECIALLY IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...A 24-HOUR WESTWARD MOTION...AND TRMM AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A 0912Z QUIKSCAT PASS INTIMATED THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR 21N...BUT I PREFER TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE BETTER DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS FOR SOME POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...EVEN THOUGH THE LONGER TERM MOTION HAS BEEN 270/08. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY DISPLAYED A 20-30 DEGREE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 48 HOURS. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE MODELS HAVE KEPT IRENE WEAK OR HAVE EVEN DISSIPATED IT...ALL THE WHILE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN KEEPING THE CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS STILL INDICATE A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA WITH DEEP NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. SO IN THE SHORT TERM...A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLE... BARRING ANY NORTHWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BY DAYS 4-5...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...WITH A HIGH CENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW IRENE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE EXTREME LEFT...OR SOUTH ...SIDE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF A WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY AND THE CENTER DOES NOT REFORM FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER IS PRODUCING SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR... AS WELL AS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THE WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IRENE COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 22.4N 57.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 22.8N 59.4W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 23.7N 61.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 24.6N 64.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 25.7N 66.6W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 27.2N 69.3W 55 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 101437 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 10 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SAT AUG 13 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.7N 61.9W 52 X X X 52 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 24.6N 64.3W 2 34 1 X 37 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 25.7N 66.6W X 9 20 X 29 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU C FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI D FROM 8AM FRI TO 8AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 101439 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST WED AUG 10 2005 ...IRENE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 57.7 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1305 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 455 MILES... 730 KM...NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER TODAY OR THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 57.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 101445 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 24 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MIERCOLES 10 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 57.7 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 810 MILLAS...1305 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA Y CERCA DE 455 MILLAS...730 KM AL NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. IRENE PODRIA VOLVER A ALCANZAR LA CATEGORIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY O EL JUEVES . LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE...57.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 101446 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 1500Z WED AUG 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.6W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 118.6W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 118.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 118.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 101459 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005 FERNANDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND AN INFRARED WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE. A 0651Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVELS. BASED ON THE TRMM OVERPASS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL MAINLY THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE OVERDEVELOPING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE EAST OF FERNANDA...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL POSITION BEING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FERNANDA MAY BE UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OVERALL SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST A NORMAL 20 KT...OR 1 DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER 24 HOURS SEEMS REASONABLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR SO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY 36 HOURS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER A GRADUALLY COOLER WATER WITH SSTS OF 24-26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 15.6N 118.6W 55 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W 75 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W 75 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 65 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W 55 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W 40 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 101520 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z WED AUG 10 2005 CORRECTED PRESENT MOVEMENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 57.7W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 57.7W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 22.8N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.7N 61.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 64.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 69.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.5N 71.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 31.5N 74.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 57.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092351Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/092351Z AUG 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 129.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 129.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.3N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.7N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 129.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 092351Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 100000 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 101500 RRB *** VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.7N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 129.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TD) 10W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF MANILA PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 092351Z AUG 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 100000 ) NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.0N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.4N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.6N 123.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.2N 125.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.0N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.4N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 RRC *** 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.6N 123.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.2N 125.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 RRD *** 151200Z --- 18.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 101600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 101200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 118.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 118.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 16.0N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.4N 121.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.6N 123.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.2N 125.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.5N 128.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 18.5N 130.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 101200 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1200 10 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MVOE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 111200 ONE SIXE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AT 121200 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 131200 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 101200 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1200 10 JULY TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH- WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORE- CAST POSITION AT 111200 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST AT 121200 ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 131200 TWO ONE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 101751 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.4N 117.9W MODERATE 00UTC 11.08.2005 16.2N 119.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 17.2N 121.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.9N 123.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.7N 125.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 18.8N 126.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 18.9N 129.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 18.6N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 18.0N 132.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.2N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 15.5N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 15.1N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 14.6N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 57.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.08.2005 21.7N 57.1W WEAK 00UTC 11.08.2005 23.1N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 24.4N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 25.6N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 27.0N 65.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 28.0N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 28.9N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 29.8N 66.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 31.4N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 33.1N 67.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 34.5N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 12.7N 18.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.08.2005 12.7N 18.5W WEAK 12UTC 13.08.2005 12.9N 20.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 13.6N 20.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 13.1N 24.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 14.4N 26.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 16.2N 30.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 16.4N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2005 16.2N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101751