** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 19.1N 111.8E 998HPA 15M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 109.5E 994HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 19.1N 111.8E 998HPA 15M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.9N 109.5E 994HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN21 PGTW 100000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/092351ZAUG2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 132.5E TO 16.4N 127.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 091748Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 132.0E, IS NOW RELOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MIN- IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110000Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 100000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/092351ZAUG2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.4N 132.5E TO 16.4N 127.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 091748Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 132.0E, IS NOW RELOCATED NEAR 13.6N 131.4E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EQUATORWARD AND DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MIN- IMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOUR IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 110000Z.// ** WTNT34 KNHC 100233 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 09 2005 ...IRENE MOVING WESTWARD...NOT STRENGTHENING... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST OR ABOUT 890 MILES...1430 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 55.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 100233 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z WED AUG 10 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.5W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.5W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 55.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 57.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 59.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.9N 63.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.0N 71.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 55.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 100233 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE AUG 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 24.0N 59.4W 46 X X X 46 25.9N 63.9W X 13 13 1 27 25.0N 61.6W 7 25 X X 32 BERMUDA X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 100248 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 0300Z WED AUG 10 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 116.2W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 116.2W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 116.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 100249 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 ALTHOUGH IRENE APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF RE-INTENSIFYING EARLIER TODAY...THAT TREND HAS NOT CONTINUED...AND AT THE MOMENT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE THE THE CYCLONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MOSTLY NORTHERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...THERE HAS BEEN A PLUME OF OUTFLOW CIRRUS EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM IRENE. IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERLY FLOW...WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE DISRUPTING THE SYSTEM...IS IN A LAYER BELOW THE OUTFLOW LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...IF IRENE SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. HENCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING. THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS...BUT IS NEVERTHELESS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS OF LITTLE HELP IN LOCATING THE CENTER. INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/9. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND A CONTINUATION OF THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN 3-5 DAYS. A BIG QUESTION IS...HOW WILL IRENE RESPOND TO THIS RIDGE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD? THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS HIGHLY CREDIBLE...HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS HAD QUITE LOW TRACK ERRORS FOR IRENE...THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE ECMWF...OR THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL...I.E. THE GFDN. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. SUBSTANTIAL SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS ALSO A REFLECTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IRENE WILL BE HEADED BY THAT TIME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 22.4N 55.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.0N 57.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.0N 59.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.0N 61.6W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 63.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 66.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 100250 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 22 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MARTES 9 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE MUEVE HACIA EL OESTE...NO SE ESTA INTENSIFICANDO... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 55.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 890 MILLAS...1430 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE GIRE AL OESTE-NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...22.4 NORTE...55.5 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. PROOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTPH RPLL 100000 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0000 10 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADUIS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110000 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 120000 ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 130000 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD. WEATHER MANILA ** WTPZ41 KNHC 100252 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY PRESENTATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOUD PATTERN HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THAT THE HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. IMPRESSIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS HAVE DEVELOPED AS WELL AS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. IN VIEW OF THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW IS BEING CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT BY A CUT-OFF LOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARDS...AN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...UKMENT AND THE GFDL. THE NHC FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SLOWER TO CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 14.8N 116.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W 60 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W 70 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 100000 *** T T T WARNING 01 AT 0000 10 AUGUST TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110000 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST AT 120000 ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 130000 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN31 PHNC 100400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 116.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.3N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.9N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 121.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 17.7N 124.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 100400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 116.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.3N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.9N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 100400 RRB *** 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 121.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 100400 RRC *** 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 17.7N 124.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 100400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 06E (FERNANDA) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.8N 115.8W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 116.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.3N 117.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.9N 119.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.5N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.0N 121.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 17.7N 124.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.0N 127.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.0N 129.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 100547 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 115.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.08.2005 14.5N 115.8W WEAK 12UTC 10.08.2005 14.8N 117.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 16.1N 119.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.8N 120.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.4N 121.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.1N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 18.3N 124.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 19.4N 125.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.4N 126.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 19.4N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 18.7N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 18.1N 130.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.08.2005 16.4N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 54.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.08.2005 22.2N 54.6W WEAK 12UTC 10.08.2005 22.4N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 23.6N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 24.7N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 26.2N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 28.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 29.7N 64.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 31.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 32.1N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 33.6N 63.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 35.2N 65.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 36.4N 63.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2005 38.9N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100547