** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 18.7N 112.6E 998HPA 13M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 110.4E 994HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 091800 UTC 00HR 18.7N 112.6E 998HPA 13M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 110.4E 994HPA 18M/S= ** WTPZ21 KNHC 092027 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2100Z TUE AUG 09 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.8W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 115.8W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY FROM THE TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10/0300Z. FORECASTER ROTH $$ ** WTPZ41 KNHC 092031 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED AT T2.0 FROM SAB AND T1.5 FROM TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY LEADING TO DATA T NUMBERS OF T2.5 FROM SAB AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. THE 1826Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN ITS INFLOW BAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 30 KTS AT THIS TIME. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS...WHICH SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES BY THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE SHORT TERM TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT/ MORE WESTWARD DUE TO THE DEPRESSIONS PERSISTENT WESTWARD COURSE. THE CURRENT TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/BAM SUITE/CANADIAN/GFDL MODELS...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF CLIPER AND EXTRAPOLATION AND CLOSEST TO THE UKMET. THE 12Z GFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST BY DROPPING A SECOND UPPER CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY..SLOWED DOWN THE TRACK FROM CONTINUITY...WHICH IS ALSO A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS THE VERY SLOW GFDL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS SHORTLY...AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE INTENSITY. THIS IS STRONGER THAN CONTINUITY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED/NAMED...THE EASTERN PACIFIC WOULD REMAIN TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE...BUT STILL TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE PACE OF THE SLOW 2001/2002/2004 HURRICANE SEASONS. TPC/NHC WILL TAKE OVER WRITING ADVISORIES ON THIS CYCLONE AT 03Z. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 14.1N 115.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W 55 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W 35 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 092056 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 ...IRENE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST OR ABOUT 925 MILES...1485 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...22.6 N... 54.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 092058 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 2100Z TUE AUG 09 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 54.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 54.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.7N 55.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 57.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 10SW 10NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.7N 59.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.7N 60.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 62.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 65.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.0N 68.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 54.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 092100 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT IRENE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING A METAMORPHOSIS. THE CLOUD STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC...CIRRUS OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM IT IS MORE DIVERGENT ...AND THERE ARE OCCASIONAL SIGNS OF BANDING. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS EARLIER...IRENE IS CERTAINLY BETTER ORGANIZED. ALL SATELLITE AGENCIES EXCEPT AFWA ARRIVED AT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE IS KEPT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT POSITION ESTIMATES YIELD A SIX HOUR MOTION OF 280/8. IN THE SHORT TERM...IRENE MAY NOT REGAIN ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE VERTICALLY COUPLED. THUS IT WILL LIKELY ASSUME A HEADING AND SPEED MORE COMPARABLE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE 12Z ECWMF AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL MOVE UNDERNEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE LYING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE 12Z UKMET SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROF ERODING THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 72 HOURS. THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE MID LATITUDES LATER ON IN THE FORECAST. SPECIFICALLY...A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND AN AMPLIFICATION OF A DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL DETERMINE HOW ROBUST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT STAYS IN PLACE. AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE NCEP AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THAT RANGE...THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ENDURING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP UPPER TROF TO ITS NORTHEAST...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT IRENE WILL ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THEY FORECAST THE SHEAR VECTOR OVER THE DEPRESSION TO SHIFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY TO EAST AND BECOME WEAKER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...IRENES POSITION SOUTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.6N 54.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 22.7N 55.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 23.4N 57.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.7N 59.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.7N 60.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 27.0N 62.6W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 28.0N 65.4W 55 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 29.0N 68.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 092102 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 5 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.4N 57.7W 47 X X X 47 25.7N 60.5W X 24 3 1 28 24.7N 59.5W 9 25 X 1 35 BERMUDA X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 092121 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 9 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE ESTA TORNANDO MEJOR ORGANIZADA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 54.4 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 925 MILLAS...1485 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUEE ESTE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...22.6 NORTE...54.4 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS A LAS 11PM AST. $$ PRONOSTICADOR KIMBERLAIN/APONTE ** WTPN31 PHNC 092200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.3N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.6N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.2N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.8N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.8N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.7N 129.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 092200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.3N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.6N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.2N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 092200 RRC *** VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 092200 RRB *** 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.8N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.8N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.7N 129.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 092200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 14.0N 115.2W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 115.2W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.3N 117.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 14.6N 119.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 15.2N 121.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 060 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 15.8N 123.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 16.8N 126.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 17.7N 129.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 18.6N 133.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.//