** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 18.5N 112.8E 998HPA 13M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.5N 110.6E 994HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 091200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD02 INITIAL TIME 091200 UTC 00HR 18.5N 112.8E 998HPA 13M/S P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 19.5N 110.6E 994HPA 18M/S= ** WTPZ41 KNHC 091437 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1313Z SHOWS A FIELD OF 25 KT WIND VECTORS WITH SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THIS COMBINED WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED...THE INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE GREATER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD STILL KEEP THE EASTERN PACIFIC TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.2N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPZ21 KNHC 091437 *** TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1500Z TUE AUG 09 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 115.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 115.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.5W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER ROTH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 091446 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 THERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING BETTER THAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO. WOULD PREFER TO SEE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE UPGRADING IRENE TO A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS. IRENE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WITH A TROF CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE MOTION OF IRENE WILL BRING IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N AND 64W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT 36HRS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM TAKING IT GENERALLY ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH TIME WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND NOTED. THE GFS WAS QUITE THE OPPOSITE SHOWING THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS IT TOOK A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK. WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARDS THE FORMER SOLUTION AND FOR NOW BE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL TREND. FORECASTER KORTY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.3N 53.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 22.7N 55.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.6N 57.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 60.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 26.3N 62.6W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 27.7N 64.6W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 29.1N 66.2W 55 KT 120HR VT 14/1200Z 30.0N 67.1W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 091450 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1500Z TUE AUG 09 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 53.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 53.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 55.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER KORTY $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 091455 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 ...IRENE SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED... AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST OR ABOUT 960 MILES...1545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...22.3 N... 53.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 5 PM EDT. FORECASTER KORTY $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 091458 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 11 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.6N 57.9W 50 X X 1 51 26.3N 62.6W X 7 20 1 28 25.0N 60.3W 1 33 X X 34 BERMUDA X X X 9 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KORTY $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 091514 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TPC/CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 9 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 53.9 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 960 MILLAS...1545 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE STE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ISE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.3 NORTE...53.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 091551 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1500Z TUE AUG 09 2005 ...CORRECTED FOR FORWARD MOTION...WEST INSTEAD OF WEST-NORTHWEST TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 53.9W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 53.9W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 53.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 55.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 57.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 60.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 62.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.7N 64.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 67.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z FORECASTER KORTY $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 091553 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 20 NWS TPC/CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 9 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...CORRECCION EN EL MOVIMIENTO...AL OESTE EN VEZ DE OESTE NOROESTE... ...IRENE POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.3 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 53.9 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 960 MILLAS...1545 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE STE MOVIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.3 NORTE...53.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO DE PREDICCIONES HIDROMETEOROLOGICAS A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 14.4N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.9N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.6N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.3N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.2N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.1N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.9N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 14.4N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.9N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.6N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 RRB *** 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.3N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.2N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.1N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.9N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 RRC *** DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.// ** WTPZ41 KNHC 091437 *** TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 8 AM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1313Z SHOWS A FIELD OF 25 KT WIND VECTORS WITH SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THIS COMBINED WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED...THE INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE GREATER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS TONIGHT... WHICH WOULD STILL KEEP THE EASTERN PACIFIC TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE. FORECASTER ROTH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 14.2N 115.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 091600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 14.1N 114.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 114.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 14.4N 116.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 14.9N 118.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.6N 120.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.3N 122.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 17.2N 126.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 18.1N 129.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 18.9N 133.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 091712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 114.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.08.2005 13.9N 114.1W WEAK 00UTC 10.08.2005 15.2N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.3N 118.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 15.7N 120.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.2N 122.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 16.4N 124.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 17.0N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 17.4N 126.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 18.0N 128.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 18.0N 129.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 18.0N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.8N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 17.7N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 12.2N 107.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.08.2005 12.2N 107.3W WEAK 00UTC 11.08.2005 12.9N 109.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 13.7N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 13.9N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 13.7N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 13.2N 111.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 12.2N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 11.1N 111.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 10.4N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 10.3N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2005 10.3N 110.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 53.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.08.2005 22.2N 53.5W WEAK 00UTC 10.08.2005 22.3N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 23.7N 57.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 24.7N 59.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 26.1N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 27.7N 64.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 28.8N 64.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 30.2N 65.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 31.1N 64.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.4N 64.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 32.2N 64.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 33.6N 64.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.08.2005 35.5N 64.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091712