** WTIN20 DEMS 090600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 27 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT44 KNHC 090833 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005 THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE'S MOSTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION. WHILE THERE MAY WELL BE 35 KT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM AT THIS MOMENT...I WOULD PREFER TO SEE THIS CONVECTION PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE RE-UPGRADING IRENE TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE 6Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 25-30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IRENE IS PRESENTLY MOVING PAST A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED AT MID- TO UPPER LEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS IMPARTING A NORTHERLY FLOW OF VERY DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS OVER IRENE THAT IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IRENE MOVES CLOSER TO...AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/73W. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS STRENGTHENING IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS IRENE TO NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH IN FIVE DAYS. AN OPPOSING VIEW IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES IRENE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS IRENE HAS PERSERVERED THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY MORE HOSTILE THAN WHAT IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN...I AM GETTING LESS HOPEFUL ABOUT THE DISSIPATION OPTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...IS FORECAST BY THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND/OR SPLIT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ALL OF THESE MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THESE MODELS ALL LIFT IRENE...OR ITS REMNANTS...NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...HOWEVER... LEAVE IRENE TO LINGER BEHIND AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THERE IS ALSO A CURIOUS SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SINGLE-LAYER BAM MODELS AND THE MULTI-LEVEL GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE BAM MODELS ALL SHOWING A MORE STRAIGHT-LINE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. AMONG THE BAM MODELS...THE SHALLOW BAM HAS THE MOST NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO SLOWER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 22.5N 53.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 55.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 23.9N 59.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/0600Z 25.2N 61.4W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0600Z 27.5N 64.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0600Z 30.0N 66.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 090833 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z TUE AUG 09 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 53.6W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 53.6W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 53.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.5N 55.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 59.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.2N 61.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.5N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 65.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 30.0N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 53.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 090834 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE AUG 09 2005 ...IRENE MOVING WESTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST OR ABOUT 965 MILES...1550 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR. A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...22.5 N... 53.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON IRENE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NWS/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 090835 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST TUE AUG 09 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST FRI AUG 12 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.0N 57.4W 50 1 X X 51 25.2N 61.4W X 12 16 X 28 23.9N 59.4W 8 27 X X 35 BERMUDA X X X 7 7 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED C FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU D FROM 2AM THU TO 2AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090847 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 19 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MARTES 9 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 53.6 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 965 MILLAS...1550 KM...AL SURESTE DE BERMUDA. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE VUELVA A MOVERSE AL OESTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IRENE PUDIERA RECUPERAR FORTALEZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...22.5 NORTE...53.6 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$