** WTNT24 KNHC 090233 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z TUE AUG 09 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 52.7W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 52.7W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 52.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 54.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.7N 56.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 52.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 090233 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.7N 56.7W 50 1 X X 51 25.5N 61.2W X 11 16 1 28 24.5N 59.0W 3 32 X X 35 BERMUDA X X X 9 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 090234 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...IRENE REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 740 MILES...1190 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...22.6 N... 52.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 090235 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 IRENE CONTINUES TO LOOK INSIGNIFICANT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND SHOWS NO INDICATIONS OF RESTRENGTHENING ANY TIME SOON. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS BANDING FEATURES. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING SHEARED BY WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER RESEARCH MISSION WITH THE NOAA G-IV JET CONFIRM THAT IRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY DRY MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC AIR. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO ENTER A WEAKER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SINCE THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE SHOWN IN THE FORECAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA. HOWEVER THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT DAYS 4-5. BY THAT TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3 AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTERWARDS...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0300Z 22.6N 52.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 54.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/0000Z 23.7N 56.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 59.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 11/0000Z 25.5N 61.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 12/0000Z 28.0N 64.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 13/0000Z 30.0N 65.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 14/0000Z 32.0N 65.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 090246 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST LUNES 8 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRINE CONTINUA DESORGANIZADA... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.6 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 52.7 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 740 MILLAS...1190 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...22.6 NORTE...52.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 090525 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.0N 112.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.08.2005 13.0N 112.6W WEAK 12UTC 09.08.2005 13.7N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 15.2N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.9N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 16.1N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 17.0N 121.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.3N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 17.9N 125.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 17.5N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 18.0N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 17.9N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 17.6N 132.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.08.2005 17.0N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 10.0N 101.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.08.2005 10.0N 101.5W WEAK 12UTC 09.08.2005 10.7N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 11.7N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 12.5N 106.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 13.4N 107.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 14.1N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 14.4N 109.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 41.4N 45.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.08.2005 41.4N 45.5W MODERATE 12UTC 09.08.2005 43.0N 41.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 52.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.08.2005 22.7N 52.0W MODERATE 12UTC 09.08.2005 22.7N 54.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 23.5N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 23.9N 59.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 25.2N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 26.5N 63.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 28.0N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 29.4N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 30.5N 64.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 31.0N 63.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 30.7N 64.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2005 30.6N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2005 31.0N 65.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 090525