** WTPQ20 BABJ 081800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 081800 UTC 00HR 38.0N 120.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 42.6N 120.5E 998HPA 12M/S= ** WTNT33 KNHC 082030 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...HARVEY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES... 865 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH... 32 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...40.8 N... 46.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 082030 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 46.1W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 46.1W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 41.9N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 43.3N 41.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 44.6N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 44.5N 32.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 44.0N 31.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 43.5N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 46.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 082030 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 43.3N 41.0W 23 1 1 X 25 44.6N 36.0W 2 9 3 2 16 44.0N 38.3W 11 5 1 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 082040 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 51.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 51.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.6N 55.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.3N 57.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.1N 59.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 29.5N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 082043 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 810 MILES...1300 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...22.5 N... 51.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 082044 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.6N 55.4W 50 X X X 50 25.1N 59.7W X 15 10 1 26 24.3N 57.8W 2 31 1 X 34 BERMUDA X X X 6 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 082047 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST LUNES 8 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION MOVIENDOSE AL OESTE-NOROESTE...CONTINUA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 51.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 810 MILLAS...1300 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...22.5 NORTE...51.5 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 082051 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 HARVEY IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 CELSIUS OR LESS AND LACKS CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ASYMMETRIC AND IS GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A MIDLATITUDE CLOUD BAND. EVEN THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... EX-HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. HARVEY HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17. WHILE THE STORM IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS MEANDER JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE UKMET IS THE OUTLIER TAKING HARVEY QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST... THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST BEYOND DAY 3... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 40.8N 46.1W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 12HR VT 09/0600Z 41.9N 44.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1800Z 43.3N 41.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 38.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1800Z 44.6N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1800Z 44.5N 32.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1800Z 44.0N 31.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1800Z 43.5N 30.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 082102 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER THIS AFTERNOON... OFTEN EMANATING FROM THE CENTER ITSELF. HOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE IN A LIMITED AREA WITHIN THE SPARSE CONVECTION... IRENE IS MAINTAINED AS 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO REORGANIZE WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CHANGE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... AND ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 KT BY 60 HOURS...CONTINUING ON TO 62 KT BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE AND REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... SHOWING MODEST AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. WHEN THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPED THIS MORNING... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER SLOWED DOWN IN RESPONSE. SMOOTHING THROUGH THE STOP-AND-GO MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK NOW SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS THAT WERE EASTERN OUTLIERS THIS MORNING... SUCH AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS... HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD. THEREFORE... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN AT THE END OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATIVE OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 22.5N 51.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 53.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 23.6N 55.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 24.3N 57.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/1800Z 25.1N 59.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/1800Z 27.0N 63.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/1800Z 29.5N 66.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 67.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 082100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 082100 UTC 00HR 38.2N 120.3E 994HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 42.7N 121.5E 998HPA 12M/S=