** WTPQ20 BABJ 081200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 081200 UTC 00HR 38.0N 119.4E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 42.6N 120.4E 996HPA 15M/S= ** WTNT24 KNHC 081438 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.7W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.7W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.9W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 52.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 54.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.6N 58.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 50.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 081439 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1500Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 47.1W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 47.1W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 41.2N 45.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 42.2N 42.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 42.7N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 42.9N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 43.0N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 42.5N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 42.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 081440 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 42.2N 42.5W 25 1 X X 26 42.9N 38.0W 2 9 3 2 16 42.7N 40.0W 12 4 2 1 19 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 2 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 081440 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...HARVEY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BUT EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST OR ABOUT 535 MILES... 860 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH ...35 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES ...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...40.3 N... 47.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 081442 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...IRENE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES...1375 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...22.4 N... 50.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 081443 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.5N 54.3W 46 X X 1 47 24.6N 58.8W X 13 13 X 26 24.0N 56.5W 8 24 X X 32 BERMUDA X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 081453 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 HARVEY IS STEADILY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER... AND ALONG A NARROW BAND STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS HARVEY GOES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 HOURS... OR LESS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...NOW 050/19. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT HARVEY WILL SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEANDER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE STORM BEHIND...WHERE IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL DAYS FROM NOW. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR HARVEY WILL TRAVEL EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING...WITH NOGAPS BEING THE FAST OUTLIER AND THE GFS AND GFDL BEING MUCH SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION BUT IS STILL FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED ACCELERATION THIS MORNING. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 40.3N 47.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 41.2N 45.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 09/1200Z 42.2N 42.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 10/0000Z 42.7N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/1200Z 42.9N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/1200Z 43.0N 35.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/1200Z 42.5N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 42.0N 33.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 081456 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST LUNES 8 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE DEBILITA Y SE CONVIERTE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 50.4 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 855 MILLAS...1375 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE...50.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 081457 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST LUNES 8 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE SE DEBILITA Y SE CONVIERTE EN DEPRESION TROPICAL... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 50.4 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 855 MILLAS...1375 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...22.4 NORTE...50.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 081500 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION TO ITS EAST THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 0820Z MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION BUT DID INDICATE SOME 35 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER... AT THAT TIME THE CONVECTION WAS DEEPER AND MORE INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAN IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... SO IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO ASSUME THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 30 KT. IRENE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS. A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RESUMED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS THE START OF A COMEBACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS INTERDEPENDENT TO SOME DEGREE...BUT FOR IRENE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD...ONE COULD AFFECT THE OTHER PERHAPS MORE SO THAN USUAL. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. BASED ON A IRENE REMAINING WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS SCENARIO IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND BAM SHALLOW SOLUTIONS. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 22.4N 50.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 52.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 54.3W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 56.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 24.6N 58.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 26.5N 63.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 29.0N 66.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 081500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 081500 UTC 00HR 38.0N 119.4E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 081725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.0N 110.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.08.2005 12.0N 110.1W WEAK 00UTC 09.08.2005 12.9N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 13.9N 112.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 15.3N 115.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.5N 117.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 16.2N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 17.1N 120.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.7N 122.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 18.5N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 18.7N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 18.8N 125.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2005 19.4N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 19.6N 127.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.2N 98.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.08.2005 9.2N 98.5W WEAK 00UTC 09.08.2005 9.6N 100.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 11.0N 102.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 11.2N 104.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 12.4N 106.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 13.8N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 14.9N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 39.5N 48.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.08.2005 39.5N 48.5W MODERATE 00UTC 09.08.2005 41.7N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 43.9N 40.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 50.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.08.2005 21.7N 50.0W WEAK 00UTC 09.08.2005 22.5N 52.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 23.9N 54.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 23.9N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 24.6N 60.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 25.6N 62.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 27.2N 64.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 28.8N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 30.4N 65.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 31.3N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 31.8N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 31.5N 64.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.08.2005 32.3N 64.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081725