** WTIN20 DEMS 080623 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 08-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTH AND ADJOINING CENTRAL AND PARTS OF SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 25.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 080600 UTC 00HR 37.3N 119.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 41.7N 119.7E 996HPA 15M/S= ** WTNT74 KNHC 080833 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 23.4N 52.4W 47 X X X 47 25.1N 55.9W X 17 8 1 26 24.2N 54.1W 15 16 X X 31 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080833 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST OR ABOUT 955 MILES...1540 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.9 N... 48.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 080834 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 48.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 48.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.6N 50.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 52.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 54.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.1N 55.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 60.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 48.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 080835 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU AUG 11 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 40.9N 46.5W 19 1 1 X 21 42.1N 42.0W 2 7 2 3 14 41.5N 44.3W 10 3 1 2 16 HIBERNIA OILFLD 1 2 1 2 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 080835 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON AUG 08 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE COLDER WATERS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.3 WEST OR ABOUT 555 MILES... 895 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY IS STARTING TO DECREASE...AND THE STORM MAY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...38.9 N... 50.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 080835 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0900Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 50.3W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 25SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.9N 50.3W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 50.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.9N 48.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.9N 46.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.3W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.1N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 42.5N 35.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 42.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.9N 50.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080845 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 8 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE MOVIENDOSE OESTE NOROESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO COMO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MINIMA... A LA 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 48.9 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 955 MILLAS...1540 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...21.9 NORTE...48.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080845 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 8 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...IRENE MOVIENDOSE OESTE NOROESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO COMO UNA TORMENTA TROPICAL MINIMA... A LA 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.9 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 48.9 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 955 MILLAS...1540 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MB...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...21.9 NORTE...48.9 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080854 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF IRENE DURING THE PAST 6 HR...ALTHOUGH THE BURST IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAT THE ONE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND BASED ON THIS IRENE MAY HAVE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...ANY DOWNGRADE CAN WAIT UNTIL AFTER DATA FROM THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS ARRIVES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE 12-HR INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT AND FASTER. IRENE REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH LARGE-MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO PERSIST FOR 48-72 HR. THIS SHOULD KEEP IRENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THAT TIME. BEYOND 72 HR...MANY MODELS FORECAST IRENE TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE U. S. NORTHEAST COAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURNING IRENE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS DOING SO IN SPITE OF A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE ITS LAST RUN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS DO NOT SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...CONTINUING IRENE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TURN AFTER 72 HR...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD FROM 6 HR AGO. HOWEVER...THE TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE THROUGH 96 HR...AND IT MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER WESTWARD AFTER THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL RUNS. IRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR IRENE. THE NOGAPS BUILDS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN BUILD A MORE MODEST RIDGE. HOW MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO THE MODEL OUTFLOW FROM IRENE IS UNKNOWN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR THAT WILL ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IRENE OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL IS AGAIN DISSIPATING IRENE IN LESS THAN 48 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 21.9N 48.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 22.6N 50.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 23.4N 52.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 24.2N 54.1W 40 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 25.1N 55.9W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 27.0N 58.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 30.0N 60.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 13/0600Z 33.0N 60.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 080903 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005 CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/12...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE LAST FEW SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION. OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD. HARVEY SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THEN SLOW AND TURN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...A LITTLE FASTER IN THE FIRST 72 HR AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER. HARVEY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ARE RE-INTENSIFYING HARVEY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 120 HR. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 38.9N 50.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 39.9N 48.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 40.9N 46.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.3W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0600Z 42.1N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0600Z 42.5N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0600Z 42.5N 35.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0600Z 42.0N 34.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 080900 UTC 00HR 37.9N 119.4E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 42.3N 120.3E 996HPA 15M/S=