** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 080000 UTC 00HR 35.5N 119.5E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 39.9N 119.7E 996HPA 15M/S= ** WTNT73 KNHC 080241 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 39.8N 48.1W 27 X X X 27 41.5N 44.0W 4 7 2 2 15 40.7N 46.0W 14 3 1 1 19 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 2 2 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 080241 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0300Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 51.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 25SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 51.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.6N 51.9W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.8N 50.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 39.8N 48.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.7N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 42.5N 40.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 43.0N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 51.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 080241 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND NO THREAT TO LAND... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.5 WEST OR ABOUT 620 MILES...1000 KM... SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...37.8 N... 51.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 080242 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z MON AUG 08 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 47.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 50.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.6N 52.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 47.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 080242 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.9N 50.7W 47 X X X 47 24.5N 54.0W 2 20 4 1 27 23.6N 52.4W 21 11 X X 32 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE C FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE D FROM 8PM TUE TO 8PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 080243 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A SMALL BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER PALTRY. EVEN THOUGH IRENE DOES NOT LOOK MUCH LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2115 UTC SHOWED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE CIRCULATION. THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTERWARDS...ASSUMING IRENE SURVIVES...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND...PERHAPS...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. IRENE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.5N 47.7W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.2N 49.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 22.9N 50.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 23.6N 52.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/0000Z 24.5N 54.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 27.0N 57.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 12/0000Z 30.0N 59.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 13/0000Z 33.0N 59.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 080244 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 HARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN...REMAIN AT 3.0...45 KT. HARVEY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 045/11. HARVEY IS MOVING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY FROM DAYS 4 TO 5. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 37.8N 51.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 38.8N 50.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 39.8N 48.1W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/1200Z 40.7N 46.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 11/0000Z 42.5N 40.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 080246 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...POORLY-ORGANIZED IRENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1025 MILES...1650 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES ...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...21.5 N... 47.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 080251 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST DOMINGO 7 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...LA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA IRENE CONTINUA AL OESTE-NOROESTE SOBRE EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 47.7 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1025 MILLAS...1650 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN AFUERA HASTA 70 MILLAS...110 KM DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...21.5 NORTE...47.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 080300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 080300 UTC 00HR 36.7N 119.2E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 080558 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 37.4N 52.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.08.2005 37.4N 52.2W MODERATE 12UTC 08.08.2005 39.2N 50.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 41.8N 46.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 44.2N 42.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 45.7N 37.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 47.2N 35.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 44.7N 34.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 44.6N 32.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 43.6N 32.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 41.6N 32.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 40.9N 33.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 41.3N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 46.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.08.2005 21.4N 46.9W MODERATE 12UTC 08.08.2005 22.5N 49.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 23.1N 51.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 23.6N 53.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 24.3N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 24.8N 57.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 26.0N 59.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 27.6N 61.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 29.2N 61.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 30.9N 61.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 31.9N 59.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2005 31.9N 57.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2005 30.8N 54.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080558