** WTPQ20 BABJ 071800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 071800 UTC 00HR 34.3N 119.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 39.0N 119.8E 992HPA 18M/S= ** WTNT23 KNHC 072033 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 52.6W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 52.6W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.7N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.9N 51.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.1N 49.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 40.2N 47.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.0N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 42.2N 40.7W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 43.0N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 52.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 072033 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...HARVEY CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080 KM... SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...37.0 N... 52.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 072034 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 39.1N 49.5W 21 1 X 1 23 CAPE RACE NFLD X 1 X 1 2 40.2N 47.2W 9 6 1 1 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X 1 3 2 6 41.0N 44.5W 1 8 4 2 15 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 072035 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 46.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 46.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.7N 47.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.4N 49.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 51.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 46.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 072036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED IRENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1100 MILES...1765 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 072036 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.4N 49.6W 48 X X X 48 23.8N 53.0W 2 20 4 1 27 23.0N 51.3W 23 9 1 X 33 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 072036 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CIRCULATION OF HARVEY A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL MORE OF THESE SMALL CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE..AND RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE PRIMARY CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 3.0/3.0...SO HARVEY REMAINS A SHEARED 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN 18Z SHIP REPORT. THE 18-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER FOREWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...ALONG 60W...IS CONTINUING TO DIG WEST OF HARVEY AND WILL STEER THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE EAST OF HARVEY IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WEAKER WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL RE-LOCATED CENTER...AND A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION IN THE LATER PERIODS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 5 DAYS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 37.0N 52.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 37.9N 51.4W 40 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 39.1N 49.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 09/0600Z 40.2N 47.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1800Z 41.0N 44.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1800Z 42.2N 40.7W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1800Z 43.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1800Z 43.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 072036 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED OR BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE CYCLONE MAY WELL NOT SURVIVE THIS TRIP BUT IF IT DOES...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN MAY EXIST AFTER 48 HOURS. WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE PATH OF IRENE SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES IRENE WITHIN 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CANADIAN MODEL...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/2100Z 21.1N 46.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0600Z 21.7N 47.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1800Z 22.4N 49.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/0600Z 23.0N 51.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.8N 53.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 55.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 58.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 12/1800Z 32.5N 58.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 072036 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED IRENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1100 MILES...1765 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 072036 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 22.4N 49.6W 48 X X X 48 23.8N 53.0W 2 20 4 1 27 23.0N 51.3W 23 9 1 X 33 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE C FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE D FROM 2PM TUE TO 2PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 072041 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST DOMINGO 7 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...LA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA IRENE CONTINUA AL OESTE-NOROESTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.1 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 46.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1100 MILLAS...1765 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICO POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL ESTE DE SU CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...21.1 NORTE...46.5 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 072100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 072100 UTC 00HR 34.5N 119.0E 993HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 39.0N 119.7E 992HPA 18M/S=