** WTPQ21 RJTD 071200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 071200UTC 33N 119E MOVE NNE 10KT PRES 996HPA = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 071200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 071200 UTC 00HR 33.1N 119.3E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H P+24HR 36.8N 119.6E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 071200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16 NAME TD 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 071200UTC 33.0N 119.0E MOVEMENT NNE 13KT PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT33 KNHC 071346 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...HARVEY SLIGHTLY WEAKENED MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.6 WEST OR ABOUT 745 MILES...1200 KM... SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS OVERALL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...35.9 N... 53.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 071431 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1500Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 53.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......105NE 80SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.8N 53.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 54.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 36.9N 52.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...105NE 80SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.1N 50.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 39.3N 48.8W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 40.2N 46.4W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 42.0N 38.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 42.5N 35.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.8N 53.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 071438 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 21...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 CORRECTS ADVISORY POSITION FROM EARLIER INADVERTENT TRANSMISSION ...HARVEYS SLIGHTLY WEAKENS WHILE MAINTAINING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES... 195 KM... MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...35.8 N... 53.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 071439 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 38.1N 50.9W 26 1 X X 27 40.2N 46.4W 2 10 4 2 18 39.3N 48.8W 13 6 2 X 21 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 3 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 071443 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY'S CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK DATA-T CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED RAIN ENHANCED 50KT WINDS IN THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL NON-FLAGGED 40 KT AND 45 KT WINDS. BOTH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/10. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THEREAFTER. WITH THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND SST'S BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HARVEY TO SLOW DOWN ONCE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLOWER...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 35.8N 53.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 36.9N 52.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 38.1N 50.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 39.3N 48.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/1200Z 40.2N 46.4W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/1200Z 42.0N 38.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/1200Z 42.5N 35.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 071444 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 45.5W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 45.5W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 45.0W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.9N 47.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.1N 50.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.8N 52.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N 55.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 45.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 071444 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE BASIS OF A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0849Z THIS MORNING...SHOWING 40 KT VECTORS JUST OUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM THIS PASS ALSO SHOW THE DYING CENTER THAT WAS TRACKED WESTWARD LAST EVENING AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEW CENTER THAT FORMED FARTHER NORTH. THE STORM UPGRADE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA. SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AS WELL AS THE ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 35 KT. IT IS SOMETIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE TO TRACK THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE THAN THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF...IN THIS CASE IGNORING THE CIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE FORMED...MOVED MORE WESTWARD...AND THEN DIED...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW CENTERS TO THE NORTH. DOING SO YIELDS AN OVERALL SYSTEM MOTION OF 300/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. THE GFS...NOGAPS... UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL...IF ERRATIC...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. IRENE IS ONLY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD WARMER WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. THE GFDL NO LONGER MAKES IRENE A HURRICANE AND IN FACT SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH FAVORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO WARMER WATERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LESS SHEAR. THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES ON ITS RECORD-SETTING PACE. IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS HAVE FORMED. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 20.5N 45.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 47.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 49.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.1N 50.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/1200Z 22.8N 52.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 55.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 31.0N 59.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 071444 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 21.5N 49.0W 53 X X X 53 22.8N 52.1W 4 25 1 X 30 22.1N 50.6W 33 6 X X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON C FROM 8PM MON TO 8AM TUE D FROM 8AM TUE TO 8AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 071444 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EARLIEST NINTH STORM ON RECORD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 45.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES...1865 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES ... 75 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...20.5 N... 45.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 071455 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST DOMINGO 7 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA NOVENA TORMENTA TROPICAL DE LA TEMPORADA EN EL ATLANTICO CENTRAL...REGISTRADA COMO LA NOVENA TORMENTA MAS TEMPRANA EN LA HISTORIA... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL IRENE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.5 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 45.5 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1160 MILLAS...1865 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. IRENE SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. IRENE PERMANECE COMO UN CICLON TROPICAL POBREMENTE ORGANIZADO Y SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 45 MILLAS...75 KM...PRINCIPALMENTE AL NORESTE DE SU CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MB...29.68 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...20.5 NORTE...45.5 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 071500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 071500 UTC 00HR 33.3N 119.1E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 071725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 11.7N 107.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.08.2005 11.7N 107.9W WEAK 00UTC 08.08.2005 11.7N 108.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 12.5N 109.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 13.5N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 14.3N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 15.3N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.9N 117.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 16.3N 119.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.6N 121.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 16.9N 123.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 17.2N 126.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 17.5N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2005 18.0N 130.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 10.6N 104.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.08.2005 10.6N 104.0W WEAK 00UTC 10.08.2005 11.0N 104.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 11.7N 105.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 13.3N 107.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 14.3N 108.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 15.3N 108.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 35.6N 54.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.08.2005 35.6N 54.4W MODERATE 00UTC 08.08.2005 36.4N 52.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 37.8N 50.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 38.2N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 39.2N 45.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 39.8N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 40.1N 40.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 40.8N 40.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 41.5N 39.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM IRENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.8N 45.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.08.2005 19.8N 45.2W WEAK 00UTC 08.08.2005 20.3N 47.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 20.8N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 21.2N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 21.5N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 22.1N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 22.9N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 24.5N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 26.3N 60.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 28.0N 61.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 30.0N 61.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071725