** WTIN20 DEMS 070634 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 07-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 24 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTJP22 RJTD 070600 *** WARNING 070600. WARNING VALID 080600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 994 HPA AT 32.0N 118.7E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 36.4N 119.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 40.0N 119.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 070600UTC 32.0N 118.7E FAIR MOVE N 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080600UTC 36.4N 119.2E 90NM 70% MOVE N 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 090600UTC 40.0N 119.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 070600 UTC 00HR 31.7N 118.3E 994HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 35.1N 118.5E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 39.2N 119.5E 992HPA 17M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15 NAME TS 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 070600UTC 32.0N 118.7E MOVEMENT NW 11KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 071800UTC 34.0N 118.7E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT 18HR POSITION 080000UTC 34.8N 118.8E WITHIN 60NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT74 KNHC 070831 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.7N 48.4W 54 X X X 54 22.2N 52.0W 3 23 2 1 29 21.4N 50.2W 32 6 X X 38 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070832 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.7W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 44.7W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 44.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 46.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 48.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 57.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 44.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 070832 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...DEPRESSION CENTER RE-FORMS NORTHWARD AGAIN... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1205 MILES...1940 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS RE-FORMED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NIGHT...AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...19.6 N... 44.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 070832 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED AUG 10 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.7N 52.1W 30 X 1 X 31 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 2 2 38.9N 50.5W 15 5 2 X 22 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 2 4 6 39.9N 48.2W 2 11 4 1 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 070833 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0900Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 54.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 54.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 54.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 36.4N 53.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...105NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.7N 52.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 38.9N 50.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 39.9N 48.2W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 41.0N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 42.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 43.0N 33.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.4N 54.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 070833 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SUN AUG 07 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES...1265 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...35.4 N... 54.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070841 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST DOMINGO 7 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE RE-FORMA NUEVAMENTE AL NORTE... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.6 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 44.7 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1205 MILLAS...1940 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION SE HA RE-FORMADO AL NORTE DE LA POSICION EN LA ADVERTENCIA ANTERIOR. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION SE MUEVA GENERALMENTE HACIA OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADAS HA AUMENTADO CERCA DEL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION DURANTE LA NOCHE Y UN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL TARDE HOY O ESTA NOCHE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MB...29.74 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...19.6 NORTE...44.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 070855 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS AGAIN REFORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER... THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/9. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD AND A SECOND RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTH THEREAFTER. TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND THE GFS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION. THE UKMET TAKES THE DEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH EVEN BEFORE THE RECENT RE-FORMATION. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY MOVE MORE WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW TRACK FORECAST...WHICH EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST TRACK IS THAT THE CENTER MAY NOT BE THROUGH RE-FORMING JUST YET. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE DEPRESSION AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR. THE GFS AND CANDIAN MODELS FORECAST A SURGE OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO DEVELOP AND REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH AN ANTICYCLONE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THIS POSSIBILITY...AND SO FAR THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS CONTINUED SHEAR. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND GRADUALLY WARMING SE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IF THE GFS/CANADIAN UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOES DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY DISSIPATED THE DEPRESSION...NOW CALLS FOR IT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 19.6N 44.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 20.0N 46.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 20.7N 48.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 21.4N 50.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 22.2N 52.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 55.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 57.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 28.0N 60.0W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 070909 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005 WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY IS UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS OVERCAST...A RECENT AQUA SATELLITE OVERPASS SHOWS THE STORM IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE CONVECTION IN A CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THESE ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 040/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING HARVEY... WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATER. THAT BEING SAID...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SLOWER TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...AND SEVERAL OF THEM SUGGEST THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A CUT-OFF EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5. IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS STILL FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE LARGE-SCALE OR CONSENSUS MODELS. INCREASING SHEAR AND COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSED BY THE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24-36 HR. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 120 HR...AND THERE IS A POSSIBLY THAT IT RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 72 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM A WEAKENING TREND TO STEADY INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 35.4N 54.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 36.4N 53.5W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 37.7N 52.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 38.9N 50.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0600Z 39.9N 48.2W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0600Z 41.0N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0600Z 42.0N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0600Z 43.0N 33.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 070900 UTC 00HR 32.4N 119.2E 994HPA 20M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NNE 20KM/H P+24HR 36.0N 119.2E 995HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 070900UTC 32.3N 118.7E FAIR MOVE N 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080900UTC 36.5N 119.2E 90NM 70% MOVE N 10KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 090600UTC 40.0N 119.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =