** WTJP22 RJTD 070000 *** WARNING 070000. WARNING VALID 080000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 994 HPA AT 31.0N 119.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 34.4N 118.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 38.3N 119.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 070000UTC 31.0N 119.0E FAIR MOVE NW 10KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080000UTC 34.4N 118.7E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 090000UTC 38.3N 119.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 070000 UTC 00HR 31.2N 118.4E 992HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 34.3N 117.5E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 38.6N 118.8E 992HPA 17M/S= ** WTPQ31 RJTD 070000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 070000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 070000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14 NAME TS 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 070000UTC 31.2N 119.2E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 071200UTC 32.7N 118.6E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 24HR POSITION 080000UTC 34.8N 118.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT34 KNHC 070228 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1230 MILES...1985 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 070228 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAN HARDLY SUPPORT A T-NUMBER BY USING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO VISUALIZE HOW THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR CAUSED BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTH. THE ATLANTIC IS PLAGUED WITH UPPER-LOWS...A PATTERN THAT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO INTENSIFY. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR DAYS...AND BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL RELENTLESSLY INSIST ON DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE. IT IS HARD TO GO AGAINST THESE TWO MODELS. HOWEVER...CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BE FOLLOWED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS BASED ON THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE UK...THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS PREFER A SOUTHERNMOST TRACK AND THE NOGAPS A NORTHERMOST. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE NOT INCLUDED SINCE THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE QUITE SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES...THERE WILL BE NOTHING TO TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND GFDL MODELS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 18.9N 44.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 45.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 19.7N 47.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 20.5N 49.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 57.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 27.0N 59.5W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 070228 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.3W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 44.3W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.2N 45.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.7N 47.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 49.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 59.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 44.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 070228 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.7N 47.6W 53 X X X 53 21.5N 51.0W 5 23 1 1 30 20.5N 49.5W 30 7 X X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 070229 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0300Z SUN AUG 07 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 55.0W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N 55.0W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 55.5W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.4N 54.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...105NE 60SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.0N 52.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 38.5N 51.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 39.7N 48.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N 55.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 070230 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 AFTER MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HARVEY'S CIRCULATION EXPOSED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER IS TUCKED UNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CONFIRMED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF HARVEY ON SATELLITE REMAINS SURPRISINGLY GOOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE TROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE APRROACHING TROUGH MAY BE AIDING IN HARVEY'S PERSISTENCE IN REMAINING A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION. HARVEY IS FINALLY SUSTAINING A NORTHEAST MOTION AT 040/8. AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT EXTRATROPICAL HARVEY MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS IN EASTERN ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 34.4N 55.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 35.4N 54.3W 50 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 37.0N 52.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 38.5N 51.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 09/0000Z 39.7N 48.6W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 10/0000Z 41.5N 44.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 11/0000Z 43.0N 38.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 12/0000Z 44.0N 32.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 070230 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...HARVEY REFUSES TO WEAKEN... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST OR ABOUT 585 MILES... 940 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 855 MILES...1375 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...34.4 N... 55.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 070231 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 37.0N 52.8W 26 1 X X 27 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 1 2 3 38.5N 51.0W 10 9 1 1 21 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 2 5 7 39.7N 48.6W 1 10 5 2 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 070232 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST SABADO 6 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL COMBATIENDO UN AMBIENTE ATMOSFERICO HOSTIL... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE FUE RE-LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.9 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 44.3 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1230 MILLAS...1985 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS PERO SE ESPERA QUE SE MUEVA HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...18.9 NORTE...44.3 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 070300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 070300 UTC 00HR 31.3N 118.0E 993HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 070300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 070300UTC 31.8N 118.5E FAIR MOVE NW 16KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 300NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 080300UTC 35.3N 118.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 090000UTC 38.3N 119.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTNT80 EGRR 070523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.08.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 11.9N 107.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.08.2005 11.9N 107.3W WEAK 12UTC 08.08.2005 11.8N 108.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 13.6N 110.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 14.4N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 15.2N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.6N 116.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 16.2N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.8N 120.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.2N 121.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 17.8N 123.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2005 18.0N 125.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 9.0N 101.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.08.2005 9.0N 101.1W WEAK 00UTC 10.08.2005 10.8N 102.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 12.0N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 13.5N 104.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 14.3N 105.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 15.1N 106.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 34.3N 55.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.08.2005 34.3N 55.8W MODERATE 12UTC 07.08.2005 34.4N 55.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 34.8N 52.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 35.2N 51.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 35.7N 49.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 36.5N 47.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 37.1N 46.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 37.8N 44.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 38.7N 42.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 40.9N 42.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.08.2005 40.7N 42.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 40.9N 41,7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 41.4N 41.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 43.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.08.2005 18.1N 43.3W WEAK 12UTC 07.08.2005 18.8N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 18.9N 48.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 19.0N 51.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 19.8N 53.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 19.8N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 19.6N 55.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 19.6N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 19.6N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 20.5N 58.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 24.6N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 25.6N 63.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2005 26.9N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070523