** WTJP22 RJTD 061800 *** WARNING 061800. WARNING VALID 071800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 992 HPA AT 30.2N 119.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 250 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 33.6N 119.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 37.5N 119.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 061800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 061800UTC 30.2N 119.8E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 071800UTC 33.6N 119.0E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 081800UTC 37.5N 119.8E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 061800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 061800 UTC 00HR 30.7N 118.7E 988HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 34.2N 117.2E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 38.5N 119.3E 992HPA 17M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 061800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13 NAME TS 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 061800UTC 30.6N 119.9E MOVEMENT NNW 5KT PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 070600UTC 32.0N 119.1E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 39KT 24HR POSITION 071800UTC 33.6N 118.7E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 36HR POSITION 080600UTC 35.6N 119.0E WITHIN 110NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT34 KNHC 062031 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...DEPRESSION RELOCATED NORTHWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1305 MILES...2100 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...19.0 N... 43.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 062031 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 43.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 43.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 42.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N 44.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 43.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 062032 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. THE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING HOWEVER...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE ARE SOME 35 KT WINDS IN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH I HAVE NO DVORAK ESTIMATES HIGHER THAN 25 KT...AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE DEPRESSION IS GOING TO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... PARTLY DUE THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION...AND PARTLY TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 19.0N 43.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 19.6N 44.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 21.0N 48.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 21.6N 50.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 22.8N 53.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 56.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 27.0N 58.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 062032 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 20.3N 46.8W 53 X X X 53 21.6N 50.3W 2 26 1 1 30 21.0N 48.7W 27 10 X X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 062033 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 56.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE 125SW 125NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 56.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 56.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 34.4N 55.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...105NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 35.9N 54.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 37.6N 52.6W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 39.3N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 43.5N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 44.0N 31.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.7N 56.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 062034 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...HARVEY LOOPS IN THE ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST OR ABOUT 520 MILES... 835 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 910 MILES...1465 KM...SOUTH OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY MADE A SMALL LOOP EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS BEGINNING TO RESUME A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HARVEY IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 56.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 062037 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 HARVEY'S CIRCULATION TOOK A SHARP LEFT HOOK LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEVER FULLY CONNECTED WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST. THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN HAS A SHEARED APPEARANCE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO FIND NEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...HARVEY APPEARS TO BE RESUMING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS 030/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOOK UP WITH HARVEY IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND INDUCE SOME ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD HARVEY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS WILL COME INTO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES AND CUT OFF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLOWER AFTER 96 HOURS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 33.7N 56.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 34.4N 55.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 35.9N 54.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 37.6N 52.6W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1800Z 39.3N 50.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1800Z 41.5N 44.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z 43.5N 36.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1800Z 44.0N 31.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 062038 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.9N 54.4W 27 1 X X 28 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 3 3 37.6N 52.6W 9 11 1 1 22 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 1 5 6 39.3N 50.0W X 11 6 2 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 062120 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST SABADO 6 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION RELOCALIZADA AL NORTE... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE FUE RE-LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 19.0 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 43.2 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1305 MILLAS...2100 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...19.0 NORTE...43.2 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 062100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 062100 UTC 00HR 30.9N 118.5E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 350KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H P+24HR 34.2N 117.3E 995HPA 15M/S P+48HR 38.5N 119.2E 992HPA 17M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 062100 CCA *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 062100UTC 30.5N 119.6E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 250NM EAST 100NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 072100UTC 33.8N 118.9E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 081800UTC 37.5N 119.8E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =