** WTPQ20 BABJ 061200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 061200 UTC 00HR 30.0N 119.8E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 33.0N 118.2E 995HPA 18M/S P+48HR 35.6N 118.0E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 061200 *** WARNING 061200. WARNING VALID 071200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 985 HPA AT 30.0N 120.0E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 33.2N 118.6E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 37.0N 119.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 061200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 061200UTC 30.0N 120.0E GOOD MOVE NNW 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 071200UTC 33.2N 118.6E 90NM 70% MOVE N 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 081200UTC 37.0N 119.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 061200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12 NAME STS 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 061200UTC 30.1N 120.1E MOVEMENT NNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 070000UTC 31.9N 119.2E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT 24HR POSITION 071200UTC 33.1N 118.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 36HR POSITION 080000UTC 35.0N 118.6E WITHIN 110NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 061345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 061200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (33.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC THREE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (36.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 061345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 061200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (120.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC THREE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (33.0 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC THREE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (36.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (119.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 091200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT44 KNHC 061439 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT THAT MULTIPLE SWIRLS HAVE BEEN APPARENT NEAR THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE DEPRESSION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...IN ACCORD WITH THE PASS FROM LAST NIGHT. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY VERY LIMITED DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS. NONE OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER 28C WATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD ALSO KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL GRADUALLY FADES THIS SYSTEM AWAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE NOGAPS...LIFTS THE DEPRESSION INTO THIS WEAKNESS. THE GFS ACTUALLY SPLITS THE DEPRESSION...TAKING A PIECE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BUT ALSO CARRYING A WEAK WAVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS HARD TO BE CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST. IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 45 NMI TO THE NORTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE DOMINANT CENTER...THEN A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 17.9N 42.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 18.3N 43.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 46.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 19.4N 48.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 20.4N 50.0W 35 KT 72HR VT 09/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/1200Z 23.5N 56.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 25.5N 59.0W 50 KT $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 061440 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 42.3W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 42.3W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 41.9W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.3N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 46.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.4N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 59.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 42.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 061440 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.9N 46.0W 50 X X X 50 20.4N 50.0W 1 23 3 1 28 19.4N 48.0W 25 11 X X 36 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 061440 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1365 MILES...2200 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH ...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...17.9 N... 42.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 061445 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...HARVEY TURNS NORTH AND STRENGTHENS... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST OR ABOUT 495 MILES... 795 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 900 MILES...1450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES ...195 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.9 N... 56.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 061445 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1500Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 56.5W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......105NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 56.5W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 56.5W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.9N 56.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...105NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.2N 55.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 37.7N 53.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 39.3N 51.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 42.0N 44.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 43.0N 36.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 45.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 56.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 061446 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 36.2N 55.1W 27 1 X X 28 ILE ST PIERRE X X 1 2 3 37.7N 53.4W 10 9 1 1 21 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 3 4 7 39.3N 51.1W X 10 6 2 18 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 2 6 8 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 061456 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z INDICATES WINDS OF 50-55 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS BASIS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HARVEY COULD RE-INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MOTION HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTH...010/6...AND THE LAST COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE MEANDERED TO THE NORTHWEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FAVORS THE GFDL OVER THE GFS INITIALLY...AS THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER CAPTURED THE RECENT LEFT TURN. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 33.9N 56.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 34.9N 56.2W 55 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 36.2N 55.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 37.7N 53.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 39.3N 51.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1200Z 42.0N 44.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z 43.0N 36.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1200Z 45.5N 27.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 061456 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST SABADO 6 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA AL OESTE NOROESTE... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.9 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 42.3 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1365 MILLAS...2200 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN EL FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM AST...17.9 NORTE...42.3 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 061500 *** WARNING 061500. WARNING VALID 071500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 990 HPA AT 30.2N 120.1E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 33.5N 118.5E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 061500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 061500UTC 30.2N 120.1E GOOD MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 071500UTC 33.5N 118.5E 90NM 70% MOVE N 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 081200UTC 37.0N 119.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 061500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 061500 UTC 00HR 30.5N 119.3E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 061735 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 33.5N 56.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2005 33.5N 56.7W MODERATE 00UTC 07.08.2005 34.9N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 36.1N 54.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 37.8N 52.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 39.5N 51.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 41.2N 48.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 42.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.08.2005 17.2N 42.3W WEAK 00UTC 07.08.2005 17.6N 44.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 17.9N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 17.9N 47.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 18.2N 49.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 18.8N 51.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 19.2N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 19.7N 53.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 20.5N 55.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 21.3N 56.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 22.7N 58.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 24.0N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 25.4N 59.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 12.6N 110.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 09.08.2005 12.6N 110.6W WEAK 12UTC 09.08.2005 13.4N 112.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 14.9N 114.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 15.3N 116.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 15.8N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 16.3N 119.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 17.1N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2005 17.9N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 061735