** WTPQ20 BABJ 060600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 060600 UTC 00HR 28.9N 120.4E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.8N 118.6E 994HPA 18M/S P+48HR 35.0N 118.4E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTIN20 DEMS 060645 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 06-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF EXTREME NORTH BAY OF BENGAL(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 28 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTJP22 RJTD 060600 *** WARNING 060600. WARNING VALID 070600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 985 HPA AT 29.1N 120.8E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 31.4N 119.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 35.5N 119.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 060600UTC 29.1N 120.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070600UTC 31.4N 119.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 080600UTC 35.5N 119.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 060600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR STS 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060600 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINU OUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11 NAME STS 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 060600UTC 29.1N 120.9E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 985HPA 49KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 061800UTC 30.3N 119.7E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 24HR POSITION 070600UTC 31.8N 119.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT 36HR POSITION 071800UTC 33.3N 118.7E WITHIN 110NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 060745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 060600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC THREE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (31.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 060745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 060600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (29.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC THREE ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (31.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT24 KNHC 060822 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 41.7W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 41.7W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 41.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 060823 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.8N 46.4W 47 X X X 47 20.1N 51.0W X 18 7 1 26 19.4N 48.6W 19 14 X X 33 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 060826 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...DEPRESSION BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST OR ABOUT 1405 MILES...2265 KM... EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...17.7 N... 41.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 060832 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SABADO 6 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL SE TORNA UN POCO MEJOR ORGANIZADA SOBRE EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.7 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 41.7 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1405 MILLAS...2265 KM...AL ESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO NORTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE ESPERA UN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA TORNARSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL DOMINGO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MB...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...17.7 NORTE...41.7 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 15 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060844 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 TD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES INDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL TO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP INTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN THAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER AND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN EXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS BELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER... IF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER WATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 17.7N 41.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 43.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 18.8N 46.4W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 19.4N 48.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 20.1N 51.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 21.3N 54.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 57.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 25.5N 59.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 060850 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0900Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 56.6W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 56.6W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 56.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.2N 56.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.6N 55.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.2N 53.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.2N 51.2W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 42.4N 44.1W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 45.0N 36.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 48.5N 27.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 56.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 060851 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE AUG 9 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 35.6N 55.1W 26 1 X X 27 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 37.2N 53.8W 11 7 2 X 20 CAPE RACE NFLD X X 2 4 6 39.2N 51.2W X 9 7 1 17 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 3 6 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 060855 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST SAT AUG 06 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 56.6 WEST OR ABOUT 480 MILES... 775 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR ...AND THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 56.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 060901 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005 A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...WHICH SUPPORTED BY AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CONTAINED 40-KT AND 50-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/06. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY COME UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LIFTS OUT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE GETS CAPTURED BY THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS SLIGHTLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 33.3N 56.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 34.2N 56.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 35.6N 55.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 37.2N 53.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 39.2N 51.2W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0600Z 42.4N 44.1W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0600Z 45.0N 36.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z 48.5N 27.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 060900 UTC 00HR 29.5N 120.2E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 380KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 32.4N 118.4E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 060900 *** WARNING 060900. WARNING VALID 070900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 985 HPA AT 29.7N 120.6E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 32.2N 118.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 060900UTC 29.7N 120.6E GOOD MOVE N 10KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070900UTC 32.2N 118.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 080600UTC 35.5N 119.3E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 061045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 060900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (32.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC THREE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (35.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 061045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 060900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (32.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC THREE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (35.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.