** WTPQ20 BABJ 060000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 060000 UTC 00HR 28.3N 120.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 150KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.4N 118.8E 992HPA 18M/S P+48HR 34.5N 118.5E 1000HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 060000 *** WARNING 060000. WARNING VALID 070000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 975 HPA AT 28.5N 121.1E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 80 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 280 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 30.5N 118.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 34.3N 119.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0509 MATSA (0509) DOWNGRADED FROM TY ANALYSIS PSTN 060000UTC 28.5N 121.1E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 80NM EAST 60NM WEST 30KT 280NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070000UTC 30.5N 118.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 080000UTC 34.3N 119.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 060000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 060000 UTC IS GOOD. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY LANDED AND WILL CONTINU OUSLY STAY ON LAND FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 060000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 060000UTC 28.5N 121.1E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 061200UTC 29.6N 119.9E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 24HR POSITION 070000UTC 31.1N 119.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 36HR POSITION 071200UTC 32.3N 118.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 48HR POSITION 080000UTC 33.7N 119.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT74 KNHC 060231 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.6N 44.9W 53 X X X 53 21.7N 49.0W X 23 4 1 28 20.6N 46.9W 24 13 X X 37 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 060232 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1090 MILES...1755 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND GENERAL THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS MINIMAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N... 40.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 060232 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 40.6W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 40.6W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.6N 44.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.6N 46.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.7N 49.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 52.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 56.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 40.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 060234 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THE CYCLONE IS OVER 26C-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS TAKEN IT INTO AN AREA OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS COMBINATION HAS INTERRUPTED DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I WINDS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LOW/ MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OBSERVATIONS AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...AND THIS WEAKNESS WILL NOT COMPLETELY FILL DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. IN RESPONSE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME SLOWING FOR ABOUT 72 HR...AND THEN POSSIBLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF MOTION AND THEN DIVERGES. THE UKMET AND THE BAM MODELS CALL FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 96-120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS...LBAR...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU. THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO SLOWER THAN EARLIER IN LIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N42W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N44W. THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT COULD CONTINUE FOR 2-3 DAYS AS A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS MODEL SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM DESPITE THE SHEAR AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE OR DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE....AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.6N 40.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 19.6N 44.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 20.6N 46.9W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 21.7N 49.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 09/0000Z 23.5N 52.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 10/0000Z 25.0N 55.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 11/0000Z 27.5N 56.5W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 060235 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0300Z SAT AUG 06 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 57.0W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 57.0W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.0N 56.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 25SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 34.5N 55.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 36.1N 54.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 38.0N 52.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 75SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 45.0N 37.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 060235 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...HARVEY CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST OR ABOUT 455 MILES... 735 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 57.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 060236 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.5N 55.3W 30 X X X 30 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 36.1N 54.4W 17 4 1 1 23 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 4 4 38.0N 52.5W 2 12 4 1 19 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 6 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 060300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 025 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 09W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 060000Z --- NEAR 28.4N 120.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT REPEAT POSIT: 28.4N 120.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.2N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.1N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 28.6N 120.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 09W MADE LANDFALL NEAR WENLING, CHINA AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPCIAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 060242 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY. HOWEVER THE WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE STORM. AFTERWHICH...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION AS HARVEY ACCELERATES AND INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DESPITE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO PULL HARVEY TO THE NORTH...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE STORM REMAINS TO THE EAST AROUND 5 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE EARLIER PERIODS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ONCE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST...A WESTERLY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON A 2202 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0300Z 32.4N 57.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/1200Z 33.0N 56.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 07/0000Z 34.5N 55.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/1200Z 36.1N 54.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 08/0000Z 38.0N 52.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/0000Z 42.0N 46.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/0000Z 45.0N 37.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0000Z 47.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 060251 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 6 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST VIERNES 5 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...UNA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA DEPRESION TROPICAL SE MUEVE AL OESTE-NOROESTE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.6 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 40.6 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 1090 MILLAS...1755 KM...AL OESTE-NOROESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE CON UNA DISMINUCION EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACCION EL SABADO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS IMAGENES DEL SATELITE INDICAN QUE LA ACTIVIDAD DE TRONADA ES MINIMA EN LA DEPRESION POR EL MOMENTO...Y SE PRONOSTICA QUE HABRA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MB...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...17.6 NORTE...40.6 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 20 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1010 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 060300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 060300 UTC 00HR 28.5N 120.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 400KM 50KTS 120KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 060300 *** WARNING 060300. WARNING VALID 070300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0509 MATSA (0509) 980 HPA AT 28.6N 120.9E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 50 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 30.9N 118.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 060300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 060300UTC 28.6N 120.9E GOOD MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 70NM EAST 50NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 070300UTC 30.9N 118.9E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 080000UTC 34.3N 119.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 060445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON MATSA (0509) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 060300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC THREE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (34.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 060445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON MATSA (0509) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 060300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC THREE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (34.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 090300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 060534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.3N 57.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.08.2005 32.3N 57.1W MODERATE 12UTC 06.08.2005 32.8N 57.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 34.9N 55.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 36.2N 54.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 38.0N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 41.1N 49.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 EXTRA TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 39.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.08.2005 17.2N 39.6W WEAK 12UTC 06.08.2005 17.1N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 17.1N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 17.7N 47.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.08.2005 17.0N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 17.5N 51.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 18.7N 53.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 19.6N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 19.9N 54.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 21.9N 55.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 22.8N 57.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.08.2005 23.7N 58.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2005 24.7N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 060534