** WTPQ20 BABJ 051800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051800 UTC 00HR 27.9N 121.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051800 UTC 00HR 27.9N 121.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 30.7N 119.6E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 33.5N 118.6E 995HPA 18M/S P+72HR 36.3N 119.0E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 051800UTC 28.1N 121.6E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 220NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 061800UTC 29.7N 119.7E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 071800UTC 32.9N 119.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP22 RJTD 051800 *** WARNING 051800. WARNING VALID 061800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 970 HPA AT 28.1N 121.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 29.7N 119.7E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.9N 119.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051900 UTC 00HR 28.1N 121.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTKO20 RKSL 051800 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 051800UTC 28.1N 121.6E MOVEMENT NW 8KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 64KT FORECAST 12HR POSITION 060600UTC 29.1N 120.4E WITHIN 45NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 24HR POSITION 061800UTC 30.2N 119.5E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 36HR POSITION 070600UTC 31.3N 118.8E WITHIN 110NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT 48HR POSITION 071800UTC 32.5N 118.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 051945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 051800 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (118.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081800 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (37.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT34 KNHC 052025 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE FOR SURVIVAL... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST OR ABOUT 990 MILES...1590 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...17.0 N... 39.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 052025 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 39.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 39.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 39.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 052025 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE SSTS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS. THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS. IF THE LOW MOVES AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...IT COULD INDUCE WIND SHEAR AND ALSO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION TO THE DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION PASSES SOUTH OF THE LOW...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE LESS HOSTILE..AND THE OCEAN IS WARMER THERE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK IS THE GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 17.0N 39.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 19.0N 43.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 23.0N 51.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 28.0N 56.0W 45 KT $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 052025 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 19.0N 43.5W 49 X X X 49 21.5N 48.0W X 15 13 1 29 20.0N 45.5W 17 17 X 1 35 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 052026 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...HARVEY DRIFTING EASTWARD... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST OR ABOUT 430 MILES... 695 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH ... 9 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.6 N... 57.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 052026 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 57.4W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 57.4W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 32.9N 56.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 55.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.1N 54.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 38.0N 53.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 42.0N 47.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 45.9N 38.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 49.0N 29.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 57.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 052026 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.1N 55.5W 30 X X X 30 SABLE ISLAND NS X X X 2 2 36.1N 54.5W 12 8 1 X 21 ILE ST PIERRE X X X 2 2 38.0N 53.0W 1 13 3 1 18 CAPE RACE NFLD X X X 4 4 BERMUDA X 1 X 1 2 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 052026 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 HARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON SATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE. HARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND AN EXPANSION OF THE CIRCULATION AS A NEW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. THEREFORE...HARVEY WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THIS PERIOD. HARVEY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 32.6N 57.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 32.9N 56.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 34.1N 55.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 36.1N 54.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 38.0N 53.0W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1800Z 42.0N 47.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1800Z 45.9N 38.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1800Z 49.0N 29.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 052000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 052000 UTC 00HR 28.2N 121.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT24 KNHC 052038 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z FRI AUG 05 2005 ..COR TO ADD 72-H WIND RADII TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 39.1W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 39.1W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 38.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 43.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.0N 54.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 28.0N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 39.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 28.2N 121.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 121.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.5N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.7N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 121.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 052101 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST VIERNES 5 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL CONTINUA TRATANDO DE SOBREVIVIR... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.0 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 39.1 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 990 MILLAS...1590 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MB...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...17.0 NORTE...39.1 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1010 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 052100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 052100 UTC 00HR 28.2N 121.1E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 500KM 50KTS 180KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 31.1N 119.7E 990HPA 20M/S P+48HR 34.0N 119.0E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 052100 *** WARNING 052100. WARNING VALID 062100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 970 HPA AT 28.3N 121.3E CENTRAL CHINA MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 30.0N 119.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 052100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 052100UTC 28.3N 121.3E GOOD MOVE NW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 100NM EAST 80NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 220NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 062100UTC 30.0N 119.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 071800UTC 32.9N 119.1E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 VHHH 052245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 052100 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC THREE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (34.1 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 082100 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (37.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (121.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS.