** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 27.4N 122.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051200 UTC 00HR 27.4N 122.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 30.2N 120.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 32.8N 118.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 35.7N 119.0E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 051200 *** WARNING 051200. WARNING VALID 061200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 965 HPA AT 27.4N 122.2E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 28.7N 120.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 29.8N 119.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 32.6N 118.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 35.6N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 051200UTC 27.4N 122.2E GOOD MOVE NW 13KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 110NM EAST 70NM WEST 30KT 325NM EAST 250NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 061200UTC 29.8N 119.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 071200UTC 32.6N 118.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 081200UTC 35.6N 118.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTKO20 RKSL 051200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 051200UTC 27.4N 122.2E MOVEMENT NW 12KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 061200UTC 29.8N 120.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 071200UTC 32.2N 118.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 081200UTC 35.2N 118.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051300 UTC 00HR 27.5N 122.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTKO20 RKSL 051200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 051200UTC 27.4N 122.2E MOVEMENT NW 12KT PRES/VMAX 965HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 061200UTC 29.8N 120.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 071200UTC 32.2N 118.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 081200UTC 35.2N 118.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 051345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 051200 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC THREE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (32.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081200 UTC THREE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (36.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 051500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051200Z --- NEAR 27.5N 122.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 122.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.8N 121.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 30.0N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 31.1N 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 32.0N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 051500Z POSITION NEAR 27.8N 121.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST- WARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNI- FICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051400 UTC 00HR 27.6N 122.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT24 KNHC 051434 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 1500Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.3W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 37.3W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 36.8W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 39.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 41.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 26.5N 52.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 37.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 051437 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOST ITS PUNCH...STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR SATURDAY... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST OR ABOUT 865 MILES...1395 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...30 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...16.4 N... 37.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 051437 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.5N 41.5W 55 X X X 55 20.5N 45.0W X 24 5 1 30 19.5N 43.5W 11 27 1 X 39 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 051437 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE DEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS MORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A LARGE AND VIGOROUS ENVELOPE WITH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WERE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN...THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...LIKE THE GFS...ALSO CHANGED ITS TUNE AT 6Z AND NOW EVEN SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS. GIVEN THESE DRASTIC CHANGES SEEN IN GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO MAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS NOW KEPT AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MODEST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES WARMER WATERS...IF IT SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.4N 37.3W 25 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 39.0W 25 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 18.5N 41.5W 25 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 43.5W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 20.5N 45.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 26.5N 52.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 30.0N 55.0W 35 KT $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 051440 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER HARVEY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A VERY TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND HIGH RESOLUTION QUICKSCAT. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. AS ANTICIPATED...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING AND HARVEY IS MEANDERING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS. WITH A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES THE WESTERLY FLOW BY 48 HOURS OR SO. HARVEY SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 32.4N 58.2W 50 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 32.9N 57.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 34.0N 56.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 35.5N 56.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.5W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 08/1200Z 41.0N 48.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 09/1200Z 45.5N 39.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 051440 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...HARVEY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING EASTWARD... AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES... 620 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 58.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 051441 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 34.0N 56.5W 35 X 1 X 36 37.0N 54.5W 1 10 4 3 18 35.5N 56.0W 16 5 1 1 23 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT C FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN D FROM 8AM SUN TO 8AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 051441 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1500Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 58.2W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 25NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 45SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 58.2W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 58.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 32.9N 57.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 45SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 45SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 45SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 37.0N 54.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 41.0N 48.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 45.5N 39.5W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 50.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 051515 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 5 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PIERDE SU INTENSIDAD...NO SE ANTICIPA FORTALECIMIEWNTO HOY O EL SABADO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 37.3 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 865 MILLAS... 1395 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LUEGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS EN FORTALEZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MB...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...16.4 NORTE...37.3 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1010 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 051515 RRA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST VIERNES 5 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL PIERDE SU INTENSIDAD...NO SE ANTICIPA FORTALECIMIEWNTO HOY O EL SABADO... A LAS 11 AM AST...1500Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 37.3 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 865 MILLAS... 1395 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY CON UNA DISMINUCION GRADUAL EN SU VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION LUEGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. NO SE ESPERAN CAMBIOS EN FORTALEZA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1010 MB...29.83 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...16.4 NORTE...37.3 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...NOROESTE A CERCA DE 18 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1010 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM AST. $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051500 UTC 00HR 27.6N 122.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 051500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 051500UTC 27.6N 122.1E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 110NM EAST 90NM WEST 30KT 300NM EAST 250NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 061500UTC 29.9N 119.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 071200UTC 32.6N 118.9E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 081200UTC 35.6N 118.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP32 RJTD 051500 *** WARNING 051500. WARNING VALID 061500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 965 HPA AT 27.6N 122.1E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 28.7N 120.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 29.9N 119.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051600 UTC 00HR 27.7N 121.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 051645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 051500 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071500 UTC THREE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (33.1 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 081500 UTC THREE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (37.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051700 UTC 00HR 27.9N 121.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 051749 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.08.2005 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.2N 58.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.2N 58.4W STRONG 00UTC 06.08.2005 32.2N 57.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 33.7N 56.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 35.5N 55.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 37.4N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 39.7N 52.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 42.5N 48.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 44.6N 44.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 47.0N 39.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 47.0N 36.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 47.8N 32.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 48.1N 28.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 47.4N 25.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 36.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.08.2005 14.7N 36.8W WEAK 00UTC 06.08.2005 16.5N 38.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 17.1N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 17.9N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 18.8N 44.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 18.8N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 19.6N 48.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 19.6N 49.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 19.5N 52.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 19.5N 54.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 20.5N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 21.5N 57.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2005 22.8N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 051749