** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 26.6N 123.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050600 UTC 00HR 26.6N 123.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 29.3N 120.6E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 32.0N 118.8E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 35.0N 118.0E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 050600 *** WARNING 050600. WARNING VALID 060600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 965 HPA AT 26.5N 123.3E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.7N 122.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 28.8N 121.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 31.5N 119.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 34.5N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 050600UTC 26.5N 123.3E GOOD MOVE N 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 80NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060600UTC 28.8N 121.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 070600UTC 31.5N 119.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 080600UTC 34.5N 118.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 050600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO STS WITHIN 24 HOURS. TY WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 050705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH BAY OF BENGAL ANDAMAN SEA (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050700 UTC 00HR 26.8N 123.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 050745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050600 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080600 UTC THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050800 UTC 00HR 26.9N 122.9E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 050822 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0900Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 59.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 45SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 59.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 59.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.9N 57.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.6N 56.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 36.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 39.1N 50.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 42.5N 44.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 47.0N 34.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 59.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 050823 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.5N 57.0W 35 X X X 35 36.0N 55.0W 1 10 5 2 18 34.6N 56.1W 14 6 1 1 22 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 050825 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0900Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.1W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 36.1W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 35.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.1N 37.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.9N 39.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.7N 44.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 35SE 35SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 20.5N 53.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 36.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050825 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST MON AUG 8 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.9N 39.5W 49 X X X 49 17.7N 44.4W X 14 15 X 29 16.7N 41.6W 20 15 X X 35 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050830 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION MOVING OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 36.1 WEST OR ABOUT 785 MILES...1260 KM... WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N... 36.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 26.6N 123.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 123.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.9N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.1N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.2N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.0N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTNT33 KNHC 050834 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST FRI AUG 05 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC... ...ONLY A THREAT TO SHIPPING INTERESTS... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 340 MILES... 545 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...32.5 N... 59.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 050900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 26.6N 123.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 123.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.9N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.1N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.2N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.0N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 050900 RRC *** MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 050900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 26.6N 123.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 26.6N 123.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.9N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 050900 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.1N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.2N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.2N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.0N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ** WTCA44 TJSJ 050838 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 3 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST VIERNES 5 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA DEPRESION TROPICAL SOBRE EL ATLANTICO TROPICAL... A LAS 5 AM AST...0900Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.4 GRADOS NORTE...LONGITUD 36.1 GRADOS OESTE O COMO A 785 MILLAS... 1260 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICO ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA EL SABADO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM AST...14.4 NORTE...36.1 OESTE. MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL...OESTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM AST. $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 050849 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HARVEY IS EXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR... WHICH HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LAG BEHIND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME LESS DISTINCT...ALTHOUGH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A COUPLE OF 55 KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 04/2228Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/08. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACK. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THE CYCLONE ALONG AT A DECENT CLIP HAS NOW LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND SLOWLY LIFT HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION OVER COOLER WATER EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THEN. AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 30 KT OR MORE BY 96 HOURS AS HARVEY ALSO MOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 32.5N 59.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 32.9N 57.9W 55 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 57.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 34.6N 56.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 36.0N 55.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 39.1N 50.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 42.5N 44.0W 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 10/0600Z 47.0N 34.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 050901 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005 THE CENTER OF TD-9 REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE POSITION IS ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACKS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 05/0411Z AQUA OVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED THE BROAD CIRCULATION WAS BETWEEN 14N AND 15N LATITUDE. A MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION CLOSER TO 14N WAS CHOSEN SINCE THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER NORTH ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11...BASED ON THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. TD-9 IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT IS BEING CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N 42W...AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AS THE LOW WEAKENS... WHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE DAY 4 AND 5 TIME PERIODS...THE MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE STORM MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 5 KT...THE HIGHER LATITUDE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS UNTIL 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS. GRADUALLY INCREASING SSTS ABOVE 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.ON. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 14.4N 36.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/1800Z 15.1N 37.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.9N 39.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.7N 41.6W 40 KT 48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.7N 44.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 08/0600Z 19.0N 48.6W 55 KT 96HR VT 09/0600Z 20.5N 53.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 10/0600Z 22.0N 58.5W 75 KT $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050900 UTC 00HR 27.0N 122.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050900 UTC 00HR 27.0N 122.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 29.6N 120.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 32.1N 118.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+72HR 35.2N 118.6E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP32 RJTD 050900 *** WARNING 050900. WARNING VALID 060900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 965 HPA AT 27.1N 122.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 110 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 70 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 28.5N 121.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 29.6N 120.9E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 050900UTC 27.1N 122.9E GOOD MOVE NNW 11KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 110NM SOUTHEAST 70NM NORTHWEST 30KT 325NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060900UTC 29.6N 120.9E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 070600UTC 31.5N 119.7E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 080600UTC 34.5N 118.8E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051000 UTC 00HR 27.1N 122.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 051045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050900 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (27.2 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC TWO NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (29.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080900 UTC THREE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (36.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 051100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 051100 UTC 00HR 27.2N 122.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H=