** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 25.7N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050000 UTC 00HR 25.7N 123.4E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 29.0N 121.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 31.0N 119.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 33.8N 117.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 050000 *** WARNING 050000. WARNING VALID 060000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 25.6N 123.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 26.9N 122.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 28.3N 121.2E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 31.1N 119.4E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 33.7N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 050000UTC 25.6N 123.4E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060000UTC 28.3N 121.2E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 070000UTC 31.1N 119.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 080000UTC 33.7N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 050000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 050000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050100 UTC 00HR 25.8N 123.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTKO20 RKSL 050000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 050000UTC 25.6N 123.3E MOVEMENT NW 5KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 060000UTC 28.0N 121.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 48HR POSITION 070000UTC 30.5N 120.0E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 080000UTC 33.0N 119.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 050145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050000 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (27.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC THREE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (30.6 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080000 UTC THREE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (33.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 25.6N 123.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 123.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.8N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.0N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.2N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 32.5N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050200 UTC 00HR 25.9N 123.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT44 KNHC 050231 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2245Z AND SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER IS ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB FALLING NEAR THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST END. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MEAN CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. OVERPASSES FROM THE TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES LATER TONIGHT MAY HELP RESOLVE THE ISSUE. DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/11. THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE COULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL DID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z NOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THUS...THE BIGGEST CONTROL ON THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATER...WHILE REPORTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW 26C WATER. COMBINE THIS WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD SOMEWHAT SLOW...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 28C WATER BY 72 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. HOWEVER... ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER WARMER WATER AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT STRONGER THAN...THE SHIPS MODEL. THE WIND RADII FORECAST AT 72 HR HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 13.0N 35.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 13.3N 36.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 13.7N 38.9W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.3N 41.1W 45 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 14.9N 43.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 18.5N 50.5W 75 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 050232 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0300Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 60.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 100SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 60.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 60.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.9N 58.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.4N 57.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 34.1N 56.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.4N 55.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 38.3N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 41.5N 46.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 45.0N 38.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.5N 60.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 050232 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 0300Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 35.2W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 35.2W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 34.6W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.3N 36.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.7N 38.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.3N 41.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.9N 43.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 18.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 20.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 35.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT34 KNHC 050232 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE MOVING ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST OR ABOUT 735 MILES...1185 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...13.0 N... 35.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 050233 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN AUG 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.7N 38.9W 44 X X X 44 14.9N 43.2W X 19 4 2 25 14.3N 41.1W 17 14 X X 31 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 050233 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY REMAINS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...32.5 N... 60.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 050234 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SUN AUG 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.4N 57.4W 30 1 X X 31 35.4N 55.2W 2 9 4 3 18 34.1N 56.4W 16 4 2 X 22 BERMUDA X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT C FROM 8AM SAT TO 8PM SAT D FROM 8PM SAT TO 8PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 050235 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST THU AUG 04 2005 TD ONE-C HAD ONE LAST BURST OF CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...BUT THAT HAS FADED...AND IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS EMERGED FROM BENEATH THE HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...HFO...SAB AND JTWC WERE ALL NOT ABLE TO OBTAIN FIX ESTIMATES...MEANING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY BELOW 25 KT INTENSITY. VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOPS INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY WESTERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE TD ONE-C...MEANING THAT IT HAS DEGENERATED INTO JUST AN OPEN WAVE. AM GOING WITH A 25KT INTENSITY TO START...BUT THAT IS LIKELY QUITE GENEROUS. TD ONE-C IS REALLY NOTHING MORE THAN JUST A LOW LEVEL SWIRL. DESPITE SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVELS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...IT LOOKS LIKE SSTS WERE JUST A LITTLE TOO COOL...SO CONVECTION NEVER REALLY FIRED LAST NITE AND THIS MORNINGS BURST WAS A LITTLE TOO LATE. ALSO LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE DEMISE OF TD ONE-C WAS THE CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 10N 140W WHICH POSSIBLY CUT OFF INFLOW OF HIGH ENERGY AIR INTO TD ONE-C. ON A SIDE NOTE...WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING ANY DEVELOPMENT FROM THAT CONVECTION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. THE REMNANTS OF TD ONE-C WILL BE MONITORED IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT IT STRENGTHENS. BARRING THAT POSSIBILITY...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER NASH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 14.5N 145.6W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 05/1200Z 14.4N 147.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 06/0000Z 14.4N 149.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 06/1200Z 14.4N 152.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 050235 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST THU AUG 04 2005 AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.6 WEST OR ABOUT 725 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TD ONE-C IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...14.5 N...145.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER NASH $$ ** WTPA22 PHFO 050235 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012005 0300Z FRI AUG 05 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 145.6W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 145.6W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 145.0W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.4N 147.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 14.4N 149.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.4N 152.4W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 145.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM FORECASTER NASH $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 050300 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 25.6N 123.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 123.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.8N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 25.6N 123.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 123.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 26.8N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.0N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.2N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 32.5N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 050300 RRB *** 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.0N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.2N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 050300 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.2N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 32.5N 118.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 050300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 123.0E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.// ** WTNT43 KNHC 050247 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE HARVEY REMAINING A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM. EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE STORM. RECENT SHORTWAVE IR AND MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THE CENTER OF HARVEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION. WE WILL HOLD OFF SHIFTING THE POSITION SOUTHWARD UNTIL WE SEE FURTHER CONFIRMATION. HARVEY IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HARVEY. SINCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF THE STORM...HARVEY WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...UNTIL A SECOND TROUGH CARRIES THE STORM RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF HARVEY SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS HARVEY AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0300Z 32.5N 60.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/1200Z 32.9N 58.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 06/0000Z 33.4N 57.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 06/1200Z 34.1N 56.4W 55 KT 48HR VT 07/0000Z 35.4N 55.2W 50 KT 72HR VT 08/0000Z 38.3N 51.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 09/0000Z 41.5N 46.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/0000Z 45.0N 38.5W 30 KT $$ ** WTPN31 PHNC 050400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 145.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 145.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 14.4N 147.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 14.4N 149.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.4N 152.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 9 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050300 UTC 00HR 26.1N 123.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 050300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 050000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 145.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 145.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 14.4N 147.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 14.4N 149.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 14.4N 152.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 9 FEET. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.// ** WTCA44 TJSJ 050344 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST JUEVES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL NUMERO NUEVE SE MUEVE A TRAVES DEL ATLANTICO TROPICAL CON POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD... A LAS 11 PM AST...0300Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 35.2 OESTE O COMO A 735 MILLAS...1185 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICO ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM AST...13.0 N...35.2 O. SE MUEVE...HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM AST. $$ ** WTJP32 RJTD 050300 *** WARNING 050300. WARNING VALID 060300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 26.0N 123.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 27.1N 122.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 28.4N 121.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 050300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 050300UTC 26.0N 123.4E GOOD MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 250NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 060300UTC 28.4N 121.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 070000UTC 31.1N 119.4E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 080000UTC 33.7N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050400 UTC 00HR 26.3N 123.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 050445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 050300 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 240 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 080300 UTC THREE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (33.7 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 050500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 050500 UTC 00HR 26.5N 123.3E 50HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 050530 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 05.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 144.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2005 14.4N 144.8W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2005 14.6N 147.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 14.8N 149.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 15.5N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 15.5N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 15.4N 152.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 15.2N 153.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 15.1N 155.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 9.3N 138.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2005 9.3N 138.3W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2005 10.7N 139.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 12.2N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 12.0N 106.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 07.08.2005 12.0N 106.0W WEAK 00UTC 08.08.2005 12.5N 108.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 13.1N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 14.5N 110.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 16.0N 112.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 17.0N 113.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 18.6N 114.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.08.2005 19.6N 115.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.3N 60.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2005 32.3N 60.8W MODERATE 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.7N 59.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 32.9N 57.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 34.4N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 35.5N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 37.8N 54.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 38.6N 51.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 40.2N 47.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 41.9N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 44.0N 38.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 46.9N 33.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.08.2005 48.9N 30.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 49.5N 26.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 35.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.08.2005 13.7N 35.0W WEAK 12UTC 05.08.2005 13.1N 36.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 14.5N 38.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 15.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 16.3N 42.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 17.1N 44.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 18.1N 46.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 18.9N 48.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 19.6N 49.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 20.5N 51.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 21.4N 52.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 22.6N 53.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.08.2005 23.7N 54.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 050530 ** WTIO20 FMEE 050500 *** SECURITE WARNING FROM METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 05/08/2005 AT 0543 UTC WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY : AT UTC PHENOMENON : TSUNAMI TEXT : THE TSUNAMI WARNING DISSEMINATED YESTERDAY 04 AUGUST AT 0920 UTC FOR REUNION ISLAND WAS A TRANSMISSION TEST MESSAGE... THERE IS NO REAL TSUNAMI WARNING CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. ANY MISUNDERSTANDING OR MISUSE OF THIS MESSAGE SHOULD BE CORRECTED. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE.=