** WTPQ20 BABJ 041800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC 00HR 25.2N 123.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041800 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041800 UTC 00HR 25.2N 123.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 28.3N 121.7E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 30.7N 120.0E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 33.5N 119.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 041800 *** WARNING 041800. WARNING VALID 051800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 950 HPA AT 25.3N 123.6E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 26.6N 122.8E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 27.8N 121.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 30.2N 119.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.7N 118.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 041800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 041800UTC 25.3N 123.6E GOOD MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051800UTC 27.8N 121.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 48HF 061800UTC 30.2N 119.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 071800UTC 32.7N 118.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041900 UTC 00HR 25.2N 123.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 041945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041800 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051800 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (27.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061800 UTC THREE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (30.4 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (119.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071800 UTC THREE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (33.3 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 042000 UTC 00HR 25.2N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 123.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 123.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.9N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.1N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 123.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 042000 UTC 00HR 25.3N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT34 KNHC 042029 *** TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...AND YET ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST OR ABOUT 695 MILES...1115 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...12.7 N... 34.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT24 KNHC 042030 *** TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005 2100Z THU AUG 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.5W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 34.5W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 34.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.0N 36.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.5N 38.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 14.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 15.5N 46.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 25SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 17.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 53.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 34.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT74 KNHC 042030 *** SPFAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN AUG 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.5N 38.5W 45 X X X 45 14.5N 42.5W 1 18 4 1 24 14.0N 40.5W 21 9 1 X 31 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT44 KNHC 042030 *** TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS EARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN FACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS MAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A DEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.7N 34.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 13.0N 36.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.5N 38.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 14.0N 40.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 14.5N 42.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 15.5N 46.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 17.5N 49.0W 75 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 53.0W 75 KT $$ ** WTPA22 PHFO 042030 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012005 2100Z THU AUG 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 144.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 144.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 144.0W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.2N 146.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.3N 148.9W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.4N 151.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.4N 153.8W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 144.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 042030 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005 AT 11 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 144.6 WEST OR ABOUT 760 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM HST POSITION...15.1 N...144.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM HST. FORECASTER KODAMA $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 042030 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005 ONE-C REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH THE EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES. THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED A BIT FARTHER WEST AND HAS ACCELERATED A BIT...REFLECTING A GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM. AN ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM WAS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WITH NO OTHER APPARENT DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED DATA INDICATED THAT ONE-C IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS. ONE-C REMAINS IN AN AREA WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT BEST. THE GFS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS BUT SHIPS AND SHIFOR MAINTAIN ONE-C AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH AND EVEN INCREASE ITS INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST WILL FAVOR THE GFS AND GFDL TREND TOWARD DISSIPATION MAINLY DUE TO THE PROJECTED INCREASE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE FULL TRACK GUIDANCE PACKAGE VARIES CONSIDERABLY...BUT THE SPREAD OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS FAVORS A WESTWARD TRACK. WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE DYNAMIC CONSENSUS. THIS TAKES THE CENTER OF ONE-C WELL SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. FORECASTER KODAMA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.1N 144.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 15.2N 146.5W 25 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 15.3N 148.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 06/0600Z 15.4N 151.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 06/1800Z 15.4N 153.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 042031 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC... AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY WOULD BRING HARVEY TO HURRICANE STATUS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...32.4 N... 61.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 042032 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 HARVEY CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH MARKED CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX SOME...AND HARVEY COULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. HARVEY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT. BEYOND 3 DAYS...A NEW SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. BOTH THE SHORT TERM DECREASE IN SPEED AND THE LATER ACCELERATION ARE SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 32.4N 61.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 32.7N 60.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 34.0N 57.0W 55 KT 48HR VT 06/1800Z 34.5N 56.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 07/1800Z 37.0N 53.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 40.5N 49.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 43.0N 44.0W 25 KT $$ ** WTNT23 KNHC 042032 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 2100Z THU AUG 04 2005 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 61.8W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 100SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 61.8W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 62.4W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 32.7N 60.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 33.2N 58.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 34.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 37.0N 53.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 40.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 43.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 61.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 042032 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SUN AUG 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 33.2N 58.5W 29 X 1 X 30 34.5N 56.0W 4 10 3 2 19 34.0N 57.0W 12 7 1 2 22 BERMUDA X 1 2 3 6 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT C FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT D FROM 2PM SAT TO 2PM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 042035 *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL DENNIS ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST JUEVES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA OTRA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12. NORTE... LONGITUD 34.5 OESTE O COMO A 695 MILLAS...1115 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...12.7 N...34.5 O. SE MUEVE... HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ ** WTCA44 TJSJ 042036 CCA *** TCPSP4 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST JUEVES 4 DE AGOSTO DE 2005 ...SE FORMA OTRA DEPRESION TROPICAL EN EL ATLANTICO... A LAS 5 PM AST...2100Z...EL POBREMENTE DEFINIDO DE LA NUEVA DEPRESION TROPICAL NUEVE ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12. NORTE... LONGITUD 34.5 OESTE O COMO A 695 MILLAS...1115 KM...AL OESTE DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE DEL SUR. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRA ALGUNA INTENSIFICACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 30 MPH...45 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1009 MB...29.80 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM AST...12.7 N...34.5 O. SE MUEVE... HACIA EL...OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1009 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM AST. $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 042100 RRB *** 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.9N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.1N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 042100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 123.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 123.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 042100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 25.3N 123.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.3N 123.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.7N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.9N 121.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.1N 120.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 123.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 042100 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 30.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 32.7N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 042100Z POSITION NEAR 25.7N 123.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 042100 UTC 00HR 25.4N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042100 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 042100 UTC 00HR 25.4N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 28.3N 121.6E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 30.7N 119.6E 965HPA 35M/S P+72HR 33.5N 119.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 144.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 144.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.2N 146.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.3N 148.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.4N 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.4N 153.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 042200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 15.1N 144.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 144.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 15.2N 146.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 15.3N 148.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 15.4N 151.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 15.4N 153.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 042200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1800 04 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WINDTHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WIHTIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORCAST POSITIONS AT 051800 TWO EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TYPHOON PD ** WTJP32 RJTD 042100 *** WARNING 042100. WARNING VALID 052100. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 950 HPA AT 25.5N 123.4E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 130 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 26.9N 122.5E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 27.9N 121.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 042100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 042100UTC 25.5N 123.4E GOOD MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 130NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 052100UTC 27.9N 121.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 061800UTC 30.2N 119.6E 150NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 071800UTC 32.7N 118.1E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 041800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 19 (FINAL) AT 1800 05 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMI-CIRLCE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051800 TWO EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE EAST WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS TYPHOON PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 042200 UTC 00HR 25.5N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 042245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 042100 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (25.5 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 210 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 300 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 052100 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (28.0 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 062100 UTC THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 072100 UTC THREE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (33.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 042300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 042300 UTC 00HR 25.6N 123.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H=