** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 24.6N 124.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041200 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041200 UTC 00HR 24.6N 124.3E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 27.8N 122.2E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 30.2N 120.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 33.0N 119.6E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 041200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 041200UTC 24.5N 124.2E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 051200UTC 27.5N 122.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 061200UTC 30.2N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 071200UTC 32.9N 118.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTJP22 RJTD 041200 *** WARNING 041200. WARNING VALID 051200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 24.5N 124.2E NEAR ISHIGAKIJIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 25.9N 123.1E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 27.5N 122.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 30.2N 120.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 32.9N 118.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 041200 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 041200UTC 24.5N 124.2E MOVEMENT NW 6KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 051200UTC 27.1N 122.2E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT 48HR POSITION 061200UTC 29.7N 120.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT 72HR POSITION 071200UTC 32.2N 120.1E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041300 UTC 00HR 24.6N 124.2E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 041345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041200 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (24.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051200 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061200 UTC TWO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (29.5 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071200 UTC THREE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (32.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041400 UTC 00HR 24.7N 124.1E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN32 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 124.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 124.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.2N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.4N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 31.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 34.1N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 124.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTNT23 KNHC 041430 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 1500Z THU AUG 04 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 63.1W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 100SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 63.1W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 63.9W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.2N 61.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.6N 59.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 35.0N 54.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 63.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 041431 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY A LITTLE STRONGER...MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...32.0 N... 63.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 041431 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 THERE HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE YESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. HARVEY LOOKS FULLY TROPICAL TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN THE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN FORECAST FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AWAY FROM BERMUDA. AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY MOVES EASTWARD...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND HARVEY SHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A NEW APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO SPEED UP AGAIN. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 32.0N 63.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 32.2N 61.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 32.6N 59.7W 60 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 33.0N 58.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 33.5N 57.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 35.0N 54.9W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/1200Z 41.0N 45.0W 25 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 041500 RRB *** RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.2N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER ** WTNT73 KNHC 041432 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST SUN AUG 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.6N 59.7W 30 X 1 X 31 33.5N 57.0W 2 12 3 2 19 33.0N 58.0W 8 11 2 1 22 BERMUDA 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI C FROM 8PM FRI TO 8AM SAT D FROM 8AM SAT TO 8AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 041500 RRC *** 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.4N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 31.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN32 PGTW 041500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 124.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 124.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.1N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.2N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 29.4N 120.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 31.4N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 34.1N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 124.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 041500 RRD *** 081200Z --- 34.1N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 041500Z POSITION NEAR 24.9N 124.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 041500 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 124.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 124.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPA22 PHFO 041445 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012005 1500Z THU AUG 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 143.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 143.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 142.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.6N 146.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.6N 149.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 152.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.5N 157.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 14.9N 162.8W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 14.2N 168.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 143.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 041445 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005 AT 5 AM HST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 143.0 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 AM HST POSITION...15.2 N...143.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM HST. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 041446 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 AM HST THU AUG 04 2005 ONE-C HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...WITH THE INITIAL POSITION REPRESENTING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A POSSIBLE LLCC BEGINNING TO EMERGE FROM BENEATH HIGH CLOUDS A BIT FARTHER WEST. THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS THE FEATURE KEYED UPON FOR MOST SATELLITE FIXES. THE EMERGING LLCC IS A VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENT...OCCURRING WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. A SINGLE CB MARKS THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS LLCC. CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH ENOUGH TO SUDDENLY SWITCH THE INITIAL POSITION TO THIS NEW SUSPECTED FEATURE...HENCE THE COMPROMISE. ONCE AGAIN...TRACK GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY...WITH DEEP LAYER GUIDANCE WANTING TO CURVE ONE-C TO THE NORTH LONG BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS. DEEP GUIDANCE WOULD ONLY BE USEFUL WITH A VIGOROUSLY CONVECTIVE ONE-C. UNTIL VIGOROUS AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION OCCURS...WE WILL USE SHALLOW-BASED GUIDANCE WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER TO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE LAST ONE...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF GFDL. THIS WILL TAKE ONE-C COMFORTABLY SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR STRENGTHENING ONE-C TO TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD WAS BASED ON AN ANTICIPATED UPSURGE OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW MAXES ONE-C AT ONLY 30 KT FROM 12 THROUGH 48 HOURS OUT. THIS IS IN LINE WITH MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH GFDL WANTS TO SUDDENLY STRENGTHEN ONE-C TO 40 KTS RIGHT AT 72 HOURS AFTER GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 19 KTS AT 48 HOURS. WE ANTICIPATE A SLOW DISSIPATION OF ONE-C THROUGH 120 HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL TRADES PROVIDING PRIMARY STEERING. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/1500Z 15.2N 143.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1200Z 15.6N 146.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0000Z 15.6N 149.3W 30 KT 48HR VT 06/1200Z 15.6N 152.0W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/1200Z 15.5N 157.4W 25 KT 96HR VT 08/1200Z 14.9N 162.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/1200Z 14.2N 168.0W 15 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 041200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 1200 04 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA)(0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 051200 TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 041200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 1200 04 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO FOUR POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WINDTHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WIHTIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORCAST POSITIONS AT 051200 TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041500 UTC 00HR 24.8N 124.0E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTJP32 RJTD 041500 *** WARNING 041500. WARNING VALID 051500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 24.9N 124.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 26.3N 122.9E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 27.9N 122.0E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 041500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 041500UTC 24.9N 124.0E GOOD MOVE NW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 300NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 051500UTC 27.9N 122.0E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 061200UTC 30.2N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 071200UTC 32.9N 118.7E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 142.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 142.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.5N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 15.6N 146.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 15.6N 149.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.6N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.5N 157.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.9N 162.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.2N 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 020 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 142.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 142.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.5N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 15.6N 146.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 15.6N 149.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.6N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.5N 157.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.9N 162.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 004 03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 041200Z --- NEAR 15.1N 142.5W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 142.5W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 15.5N 144.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 15.6N 146.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 15.6N 149.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 061200Z --- 15.6N 152.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 071200Z --- 15.5N 157.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.9N 162.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.2N 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 020 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 041600 RRB *** VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.2N 168.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 020 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041600 UTC 00HR 24.9N 123.8E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 041645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 041500 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 051500 UTC TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (27.4 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 061500 UTC THREE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (30.0 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 071500 UTC THREE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (32.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041700 UTC 00HR 25.0N 123.7E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 041732 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY MOVING OVER OPEN WATERS...WEATHER IMPROVING IN BERMUDA... AT 2 PM AST...1800Z THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM...EAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES. REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...32.3 N... 62.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 994 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 041737 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 142.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2005 15.4N 142.8W WEAK 00UTC 05.08.2005 14.3N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 14.6N 146.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2005 15.0N 147.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 16.5N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 16.0N 150.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 16.1N 150.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 16.0N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 15.0N 152.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 14.2N 155.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.8N 63.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2005 31.8N 63.5W MODERATE 00UTC 05.08.2005 32.2N 61.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.0N 59.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 33.0N 58.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 33.7N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 35.3N 55.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 36.6N 53.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 39.5N 50.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 41.7N 46.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.08.2005 43.0N 43.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 44.4N 39.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 47.1N 35.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 47.7N 34.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 13.6N 30.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.08.2005 13.6N 30.8W MODERATE 00UTC 05.08.2005 14.1N 32.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 15.2N 35.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2005 16.1N 37.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 16.0N 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 16.8N 41.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 17.9N 43.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 18.6N 43.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 18.7N 45.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 19.7N 46.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.08.2005 20.1N 47.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.08.2005 20.5N 49.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.08.2005 21.1N 51.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 041737