** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 23.9N 124.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040600 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040600 UTC 00HR 23.9N 124.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.6N 123.0E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 29.5N 121.7E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 32.8N 121.1E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 040600 *** WARNING 040600. WARNING VALID 050600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 23.9N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 25.4N 123.3E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 26.6N 122.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 29.9N 120.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 32.4N 118.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 040600UTC 23.9N 124.5E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050600UTC 26.6N 122.3E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 060600UTC 29.9N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 070600UTC 32.4N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 040600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO NORTH-NOR THWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 040705 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 04-08-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST AND ADJOINING PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 30 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040700 UTC 00HR 24.0N 124.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 040745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040600 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (24.0 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050600 UTC TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (26.0 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060600 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070600 UTC THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (119.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040800 UTC 00HR 24.1N 124.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 040833 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0900Z THU AUG 04 2005 AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 64.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 64.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 65.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 32.2N 62.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 32.6N 60.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.9N 59.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.3N 58.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 37.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 64.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 040833 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 60 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES ...140 KM FROM THE CENTER....MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...29.38 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...31.8 N... 64.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 995 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 040833 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN AUG 7 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.6N 60.8W 29 1 X X 30 33.3N 58.3W 5 8 4 2 19 32.9N 59.5W 15 5 1 1 22 BERMUDA 99 X X X 99 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 040835 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005 AIR FORCE RECON FOUND A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB... BUT SO FAR THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH. CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH HARVEY IS BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...IT IS HOLDING ITS OWN...AS IS TYPICAL OF THESE HIGHER LATITUDE SYSTEMS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS HARVEY'S CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED IN 3-5 DAYS...SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE PERIOD. HARVEY IS MOVING AT ABOUT 070/11. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 60W IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE STORM SO THE STEERING CURRENT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH ACCELERATES THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS NEXT TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AMPLITUDE SO IT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO CAUSE A BIG INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE U.K. MET AND GFS...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN MY FORECAST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL...WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 31.8N 64.6W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 32.2N 62.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 32.6N 60.8W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 32.9N 59.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 33.3N 58.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 35.0N 55.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 37.5N 51.5W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/0600Z 40.0N 47.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 124.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 124.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.4N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.8N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.2N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 124.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 RRA *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 124.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 124.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.4N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 RRC *** 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.2N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 124.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 RRD *** HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 RRB *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.8N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 124.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 124.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.4N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.8N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.2N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 124.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPA22 PHFO 040845 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012005 0900Z THU AUG 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 142.0W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 142.0W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 141.6W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.9N 143.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.1N 145.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.1N 148.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.1N 150.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.1N 156.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 15.6N 161.5W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 14.9N 166.7W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 142.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 040845 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005 AT 11 PM HST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.0 WEST OR ABOUT 910 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM HST POSITION...15.5 N...142.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM HST. FORECASTER POWELL $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 040846 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 11 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005 CONVECTION AROUND ONE-C HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNSWING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 8 HOURS...WITH A SINGLE CB NOW SPUTTERING OFF AND ON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE LLCC. SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB AND JTWC CONTINUE TO CORRESPOND TO SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES WIDELY BEYOND 24 HOURS...BUT THE STRENGTHENING HIGH NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT MUCH INCREASE IN LATITUDE BEYOND 16N. FORECAST TRACK FOR ONE-C IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. WE ARE OPERATING ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT CB ACTIVITY WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT NEAR THE LLCC. GIVEN THE NEUTRAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ONE-C WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE AFTER THAT...LIKELY CAPPING THE STRENGTH OF ONE-C. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS...MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AT 120 HOURS. FORECASTER POWELL FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 15.5N 142.0W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 15.9N 143.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 16.1N 145.6W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1800Z 16.1N 148.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0600Z 16.1N 150.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/0600Z 16.1N 156.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 08/0600Z 15.6N 161.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/0600Z 14.9N 166.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040900 UTC 00HR 24.2N 124.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040900 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040900 UTC 00HR 24.2N 124.6E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H P+24HR 26.9N 122.6E 940HPA 50M/S= ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 124.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 124.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 25.4N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 26.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 27.8N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 29.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 31.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 33.2N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 124.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTIO20 FMEE 040900 *** ===TEST===TEST===TEST===TEST===TEST===TEST=== SECURITE WARNING FROM METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 04/08/2005 AT 0925 UTC WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY : AT UTC PHENOMENON : TSUNAMI TEXT : THERE IS A TSUNAMI WARNING FOR ALL THE COASTS OF REUNION ISLAND SINCE AT UTC.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 040600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0600 04 AUGUST TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOEMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN32 PGTW 040900 *** NAVOCEANO STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS//N16// MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION* 040600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 124.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION* MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT* GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT* 24.0N 124.7E --- FORECASTS* 12 HRS* VALID AT* 041800Z --- 25.4N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT* GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT* 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS* VALID AT* 050600Z --- 26.6N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT* GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT* 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS* VALID AT* 051800Z --- 27.8N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT* GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT* 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK* 48 HRS* VALID AT* 060600Z --- 29.0N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT* GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT* 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS* VALID AT* 070600Z --- 31.3N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT* GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT* 010 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK* NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS* VALID AT* 080600Z --- 33.2N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT* GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS* 040900Z POSITION NEAR 24.3N 124.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA)* LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA* HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z* 042100Z* 050300Z AND 050900Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 040600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0600 04 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SIX THREE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WINDTHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WIHTIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ELSEWHERE FROCAST POSITIONS AT 050600 TWO SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORT TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTJP32 RJTD 040900 *** WARNING 040900. WARNING VALID 050900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 24.3N 124.5E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 25.8N 123.4E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 27.3N 122.4E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 040900UTC 24.3N 124.5E GOOD MOVE N 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050900UTC 27.3N 122.4E 90NM 70% MOVE NW 08KT PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 45HF 060600UTC 29.9N 120.5E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 09KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 070600UTC 32.4N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 07KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041000 UTC 00HR 24.4N 124.6E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 041000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 141.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 141.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.9N 143.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.1N 145.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.1N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.1N 150.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.1N 156.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.6N 161.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.9N 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 041000 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 141.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 141.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.9N 143.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.1N 145.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.1N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.1N 150.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 041000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 141.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 141.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041800Z --- 15.9N 143.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 16.1N 145.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 16.1N 148.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 16.1N 150.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 16.1N 156.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.6N 161.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.9N 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 041000 RRB *** 070600Z --- 16.1N 156.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.6N 161.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.9N 166.7W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 025 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 041045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040900 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050900 UTC TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060900 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (120.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070900 UTC THREE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (31.7 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 041100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 041100 UTC 00HR 24.6N 124.5E 950HPA 45M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 20KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 041131 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK...HARVEY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES ...185 KM FROM THE CENTER....MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER BERMUDA. REPEATING THE 8 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 63.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$