** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.9E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040000 CCA *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040000 UTC 00HR 23.0N 124.9E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 25.9N 123.4E 940HPA 50M/S P+48HR 28.5N 122.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 31.3N 121.2E 980HPA 30M/S= ** WTJP22 RJTD 040000 *** WARNING 040000. WARNING VALID 050000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 23.1N 124.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041200UTC AT 24.7N 124.0E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 26.2N 123.1E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 29.5N 122.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 32.8N 121.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 040000UTC 23.1N 124.8E GOOD MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050000UTC 26.2N 123.1E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 48HF 060000UTC 29.5N 122.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 72HF 070000UTC 32.8N 121.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ31 RJTD 040000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 0509 MATSA (0509) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 040000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040100 UTC 00HR 23.1N 124.8E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTKO20 RKSL 040000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TY 0509 MATSA ANALYSIS POSITION 040000UTC 23.2N 125.0E MOVEMENT NNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 955HPA 80KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 050000UTC 26.3N 123.1E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 945HPA 86KT 48HR POSITION 060000UTC 29.1N 121.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT 72HR POSITION 070000UTC 32.2N 120.8E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN32 PGTW 040300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 124.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 124.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.6N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.1N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.3N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.8N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 33.0N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 35.0N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 124.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CORE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 040200 RRB *** 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.1N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 040200 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 124.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 124.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.6N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPN32 PGTW 040200 RRD *** 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 33.0N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 35.0N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 124.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CORE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 040145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON MATSA (0509) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY. AT 040000 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (23.1 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050000 UTC TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060000 UTC TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070000 UTC THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (119.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN32 PGTW 040200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 09W (MATSA) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 23.1N 124.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.1N 124.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 24.6N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 25.9N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 27.1N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.3N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.8N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 33.0N 119.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 35.0N 119.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 124.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 09W (MATSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CORE AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.// ** WTPN32 PGTW 040200 RRC *** 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 28.3N 121.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.8N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040200 UTC 00HR 23.2N 124.8E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT23 KNHC 040231 *** TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082005 0300Z THU AUG 04 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 65.8W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 45NE 75SE 45SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 65.8W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 66.4W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.1N 64.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 75SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.8N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.0N 60.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 33.5N 58.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 35.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 38.0N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 41.0N 45.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 65.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT33 KNHC 040231 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 ...HARVEY IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES... 130 KM...SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR. THIS MOTION WILL BRING HARVEY VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA EARLY THURSDAY. HARVEY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...31.5 N... 65.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT43 KNHC 040232 *** TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005 SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...IN FACT...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION IT LOOKS LIKE A SKELETON. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ONLY BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DESPITE SUCH POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION... RECON MEASURED 62 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN KEPT AT 50 KNOTS UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE REACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR HARVEY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE SHEAR IS NOT NORMALLY A DETRIMENT TO NON-PURE TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE HARVEY. THE CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ARE VERY SMALL. AS A PRECAUTION...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS KEPT FOR BERMUDA...TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HISTORICAL ERRORS IN INTENSITY FORECASTS. HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN 36 HOURS OR SO. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...BUT THE STEERING WILL LIKELY VARY IN SPEED AS SHORTWAVES MOVE BY THE AREA. HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS SOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO. THEN...ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW AND HARVEY WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. NOTE: A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...JUST RECEIVED...SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WE WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BEFORE WE LOWER THE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. FORECASTER AVILA/BERG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 31.5N 65.8W 50 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 32.1N 64.1W 55 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 32.8N 62.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 33.0N 60.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 33.5N 58.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 35.0N 55.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 38.0N 51.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 09/0000Z 41.0N 45.0W 30 KT $$ ** WTNT73 KNHC 040232 *** SPFAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST WED AUG 03 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST SAT AUG 6 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 32.8N 62.0W 27 1 X X 28 33.5N 58.5W 2 8 4 3 17 33.0N 60.0W 9 7 2 1 19 BERMUDA 60 X X X 60 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM THU TO 8AM FRI C FROM 8AM FRI TO 8PM FRI D FROM 8PM FRI TO 8PM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 040249 *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005 ONE-C HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY AND AT LEAST ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A MUCH BETTER PRESENTATION. CONVECTION ON THE OTHER HAND HAS DIMINISHED...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A WEAK SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. 00Z SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB AND JTWC WERE STILL A T1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 25KT SUSTAINED WIND. NO NEW MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE KEEPING IT AS A 25KT STORM TO START. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT ONE-C IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF HAWAII IS HELPING TO ESTABLISH AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ONE-C. CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THE CONVECTION IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...THIS SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY ONE-C LATE TONITE INTO TOMORROW. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...ONE-C WOULD BE NAMED IOKE...HAWAIIAN FOR ROSE...AND BE THE FIRST NAMED CENTRAL PACIFIC STORM SINCE 2002. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS ONE-C REACHING ABOUT 35KT INTENSITY. GIVEN THAT ONE-C IS RUNNING A SMIDGE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...HAVE EDGED THE FORECAST A BIT NORTH TO START...THEN TURNING IT DUE WEST FAR TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AFTER 48 HRS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. A FEW TURN THE SYSTEM NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS...A COUPLE WANT TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE LAST FEW TAKE IT SOUTHWEST. OUR FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD...FAVORING THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SINCE WE DONT SEE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW ONE-C TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN 16N OR 17N LATITUDE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WONT BE AS SUPPORTIVE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DIG PRETTY FAR SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD START TEARING THE SYSTEM APART AND GETTING RID OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ALL HAPPEN WITHIN 72 HRS. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE INTO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL/REMNANT LOW AND START TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED A HINT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER NASH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.5N 141.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 143.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.3N 145.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 147.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.4N 148.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.4N 152.2W 25 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 156.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/0000Z 16.0N 160.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ ** WTPA22 PHFO 040249 *** TCMCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012005 0300Z THU AUG 04 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C HAS FORMED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 141.6W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 141.6W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 141.1W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.9N 143.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.3N 145.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.4N 147.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.4N 148.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.4N 152.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 16.5N 156.3W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 16.0N 160.9W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 141.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z FORECASTER NASH $$ ** WTPA32 PHFO 040249 *** TCPCP2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP WELL SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII. AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.6 WEST OR ABOUT 935 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ONE-C IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 18 HOURS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 5 PM HST POSITION...15.5 N...141.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM HST. FORECASTER NASH $$ ** WTPA42 PHFO 040258 CCA *** TCDCP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 2...CORRECTED NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 5 PM HST WED AUG 03 2005 ONE-C HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY AND AT LEAST ON VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS A MUCH BETTER PRESENTATION. CONVECTION ON THE OTHER HAND HAS DIMINISHED...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED FOR A WEAK SYSTEM DURING THE DAY. 00Z SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES FROM CPHC...SAB AND JTWC WERE STILL A T1.5 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 25KT SUSTAINED WIND. NO NEW MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA TO WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL BE KEEPING IT AS A 25KT STORM TO START. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODEL GUIDANCE AND UW-CIMMS VERTICAL SHEAR ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT ONE-C IS IN AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AND IT LOOKS LIKE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF HAWAII IS HELPING TO ESTABLISH AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ONE-C. CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSPHY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVERNIGHT. ASSUMING THE CONVECTION IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...THIS SHOULD HELP INTENSIFY ONE-C LATE TONITE INTO TOMORROW. IF THIS INDEED HAPPENS...ONE-C WOULD BE NAMED IOKE...HAWAIIAN FOR JOYCE...AND BE THE FIRST NAMED CENTRAL PACIFIC STORM SINCE 2002. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH...INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS ONE-C REACHING ABOUT 35KT INTENSITY. GIVEN THAT ONE-C IS RUNNING A SMIDGE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...HAVE EDGED THE FORECAST A BIT NORTH TO START...THEN TURNING IT DUE WEST FAR TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AFTER 48 HRS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE. A FEW TURN THE SYSTEM NORTH EAST OF THE ISLANDS...A COUPLE WANT TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND THE LAST FEW TAKE IT SOUTHWEST. OUR FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD...FAVORING THE FARTHER SOUTH TRACK SINCE WE DONT SEE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW ONE-C TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN 16N OR 17N LATITUDE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS IT LOOKS LIKE THE ENVIRONMENT WONT BE AS SUPPORTIVE. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DIG PRETTY FAR SOUTH...RESULTING IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WHICH WOULD START TEARING THE SYSTEM APART AND GETTING RID OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY ALL HAPPEN WITHIN 72 HRS. AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE INTO A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL/REMNANT LOW AND START TO TURN MORE SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW LEVEL TRADE FLOW. HAVE INTRODUCED A HINT OF THIS IN THE FORECAST. FORECASTER NASH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.5N 141.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 15.9N 143.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.3N 145.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 147.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.4N 148.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 07/0000Z 16.4N 152.2W 25 KT 96HR VT 08/0000Z 16.5N 156.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 09/0000Z 16.0N 160.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ CORRECTED FOR IOKE TRANSLATION...MEANS JOYCE IN ENGLISH NOT ROSE ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040300 UTC 00HR 23.4N 124.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPN31 PHNC 040400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 141.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 141.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.9N 143.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.3N 145.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.4N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.4N 148.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.4N 152.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.5N 156.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.0N 160.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 040000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 0000 04 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA)(0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT TWO THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS FOUR ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050000 TWO SIX POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST AND AT 051200 TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 040000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 0000 04 AUGUST, TYPHOON (MATSA) (0509) WAS LOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 23.1N 124.8E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 04MPS ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 40MPS NEAR CENTER 25MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 450KMS RADIUS SOUTH SEMICIRCLE 350KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 050000 26.2N 123.4E AND AT 051200 27.5N 122.6E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP32 RJTD 040300 *** WARNING 040300. WARNING VALID 050300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0509 MATSA (0509) 955 HPA AT 23.6N 124.7E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 325 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 300 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 25.1N 123.7E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 26.5N 122.8E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 945 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ21 RJTD 040300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0509 MATSA (0509) ANALYSIS PSTN 040300UTC 23.6N 124.7E GOOD MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 955HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 90NM 30KT 325NM SOUTH 300NM NORTH FORECAST 24HF 050300UTC 26.5N 122.8E 90NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 945HPA MXWD 085KT 45HF 060000UTC 29.5N 122.1E 150NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 960HPA MXWD 075KT 69HF 070000UTC 32.8N 121.4E 220NM 70% MOVE NNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPN31 PHNC 040400 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 141.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 141.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.9N 143.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.3N 145.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.4N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.4N 148.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 16.4N 152.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.5N 156.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.0N 160.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.// ** WTPN31 PHNC 040400 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01C WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN CENTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 141.1W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 141.1W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 15.9N 143.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 16.3N 145.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 16.4N 147.0W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 16.4N 148.6W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: ** WTPN31 PHNC 040400 RRB *** 070000Z --- 16.4N 152.2W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 16.5N 156.3W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 16.0N 160.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040400 UTC 00HR 23.5N 124.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 040445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 040300 UTC, TYPHOON MATSA (0509) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (23.6 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 210 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 050300 UTC TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (122.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 060300 UTC TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (120.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 070300 UTC THREE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (31.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (119.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 040519 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.08.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 140.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.5N 140.9W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2005 14.6N 143.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2005 14.6N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 14.7N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.08.2005 14.7N 148.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 15.1N 150.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.08.2005 15.2N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 15.2N 152.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 15.2N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.3N 119.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2005 14.3N 119.0W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2005 15.4N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.08.2005 16.2N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 16.3N 122.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 66.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2005 30.7N 66.8W MODERATE 12UTC 04.08.2005 32.0N 64.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 32.2N 62.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.08.2005 32.7N 59.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 32.2N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.08.2005 32.2N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 32.8N 56.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.08.2005 33.1N 56.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 32.8N 55.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 33.7N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 33.6N 53.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.8N 29.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.08.2005 12.8N 29.1W WEAK 12UTC 04.08.2005 13.7N 30.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.08.2005 14.4N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.08.2005 15.2N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.08.2005 16.1N 38.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.08.2005 16.4N 40.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.08.2005 17.2N 42.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.08.2005 18.1N 43.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.08.2005 19.1N 45.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.08.2005 20.2N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.08.2005 21.2N 49.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.08.2005 22.1N 50.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.08.2005 23.7N 51.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 040519 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 040500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY MATSA 0509 (0509) INITIAL TIME 040500 UTC 00HR 23.6N 124.7E 955HPA 40M/S 30KTS 600KM 50KTS 200KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT33 KNHC 040553 *** TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM HARVEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM AST THU AUG 04 2005 ...HARVEY JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH INDICATES THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM...SOUTH OF BERMUDA. HARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH ...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL PASS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STORM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY. REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...31.9 N... 64.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 998 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$